May 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening higher

GBP volatile on Manchester bomb attack

Merkel’s comments about weak EUR were more preparation ahead of today’s visit of Trump

As well as preparation for Sep elections as Germans like strong EUR (DEM) while don’t mind to kick a bit ECB

Trump acting as a mediator Muslim states, Israel and Iran

Trump’s budget – to cut gov spending like healthcare and social programs (USD 3.6 trln over 10 yrs)

Trump still caught in Russian scandal

Russian cyber attacks via Android targeted banks

Equities

Boeing taking on Bombardier on experience from Airbus

Swiss watch makers facing declines in sales

Noble down 28%, halted, downgrade and facing bankruptcy

M&As hitting new highs between US and EU companies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37%

Greek debt relief not yet but likely going to July payment on IMF request

Would face German pre-election opposition

Greek 2-yr yield to 5.25% from around 9.50% in Feb

DXY staying very weak

EURUSD

Yesterday’s/overnight move higher likely coming from new demand and short covering, Merkel and more bullish view of EZ assets

Overall EURUSD is well overdone

Critical 1.1300 may attract speculators

But EURUSD may even check the levels like 1.1314 (76.4% Fibo of May 2016-Jan 2017 move)

USDJPY

Not much volatility overnight after initial JPY strength on Manchester attack

Bids seem sitting below 111.00

Offers may be about 111.35

55 DMA at 111.34 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as resistance

Gold daily

Resitance 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude oil

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting on Thursday

9-month cut extension already priced in

Trump’s proposal to sell half of strategic reserves (344 mln barrels)

What would add daily 100k barrels of new oil over the next 10 years

Upcoming

Last day of Eurogroup meeting

Fed’s Kashkari speaking (1300 GMT)

Hammond, Schauble, Guindos speaking (1430 GMT)

ECB’ Coeure speaking (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Harker speaking (2100 GMT)

Wed – FOMC Minutes

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (rescheduled)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Trump mess

Europe opening lower

Trump to face tough scrutiny from Congress on meeting with Lavrov and sharing sensitive info

What would happen if Donald Trump were impeached?  link

European Court of Justice ruling – EU-UK trade deal doesn’t need to be ratified by all 38 EU’s national and local parliaments

Confirming the qualified majority vote of EU member states as sufficient

Kuroda – BoJ to continue the stimulus firmly

Atlanta Fed rising Q2 GDP forecast to 4.1%

Equities

UK gov to sell the remainder in Lloyds

Chinese Shanghai Pharmaceutical interested in Stada Arzneimittel

Yahoo planning a USD 3 bln share buyback ahead of merger with Verizon

Ford planning job cuts of white-collars

Delphi to work with BMW and Intel on autonomy driving project

JPMorgan shareholders not happy with Dimon advising Trump

KKR buying Q-Park (USD 2.2 bln)

Nasdaq offers enhanced data service based on robot intelligence

BGC launching e-platform to trade US Trys in June

NYSE planning a 350-microsecond delay on all in/outgoing orders

To use the similar set up at IEX Group does

Nasdaq printed new highs, helped by techs

As already mentioned stocks being resilient to global geopolitical and security risks

With VIX closing at 10.65

Earnings

Home Depot doing well as the revival in US real estate market goes on

And people keep refurbishing their dwellings

Cisco to report another decline in revenue as the company is striving to refocus from traditional activities to security, Internet of Things and cloud

Others reporting: Target, Tencent, Alibaba

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% - at critical support level, June hike still in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% - Bunds jumped at EU opening pushing the yields lower

Greece readying for July bond issue if agreement with lenders in place

DXY 

Market is getting distracted from growth agenda by Trump mess and we may face delays in reforms

But US economy is in a good shape, earnings growing, labour market tightening…etc.

EURUSD

Cross supported by EZ data, Macron, Merkel, capital inflows, US politics/Trump mess

Having positive correlation with risk, FR-GE spread narrowing

50 & 100 DMA may break through 200 DMA soon (overall technical picture remains bullish)

May have a potential toward 1.1300 and 1.1500

But 1.1000 needs to hold, next 1.1130/40 and 1.1250

Some traders still sceptical about further move higher

Seems that the spot is getting way ahead of yields

Bund yields lagging the move, need to catch up to validify the move

Option expiries may keep the cross close to 1.1100

EURUSD weekly chart - facing the resistance

Upcoming

UK: Labour Market Report

EZ: Inflation data

Thu

ECB’s Draghi, Mersch, Nowotny, Lautenschlaeger speaking

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri

ECB’s Constancio speaking

Fed’s Bullard speaking

Iran elections - impact on security and oil production

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 74% (CME) and 97% (Bloomberg)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opened mixed

GBP up yesterday as market speculates that snap elections can remove the political uncertainty

And give a stronger mandate for May in Brexit talks

Pence – NK to expect an overwhelming and effective response

China shadow banking back at full speed

China eased capital flow controls

Foreign investment in Canada hitting high of CAD 39 bln on M&A

Geopolitical events and upcoming French election driving investors to safe heavens (gold, bonds)

FTSE 100 below recent lows on stronger GBP

BMW see China sales to grow 10% in 2017 while globally should rise 5-5.5%

Credit Suisse still in a clash with its shareholders over top execs bonuses

Earnings season

Goldman Sachs disappointed on trading revenue what impacted markets yesterday

Lower trading activity was to blame as the bank doesn’t benefit from lending as competitors do or additional trading related business.

Is Goldman Sachs loosing a market share?

Morgan Stanley – expecting positive surprise on more active bond trading and cost cutting

American Express – expecting a negative surprise due to competition margin squeeze and rising costs

BlackRock – more than profit report markets will scrutinize cost cutting and reorganization plans

Especially at active stock picking division

Others: Qualcomm, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, eBay, U.S. Bancorp

Bonds

10-yr Bund yield at 0.16%

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

Touched 2.1629% - the lowest since Nov 2016 elections

The area of support is around 2.1346% (38.2% Fibo)

The levels around/below 2.20% may be a good place to start to sell bonds

But the appetite for safety stays strong for now

Don’t forget about Fed hiking and trimming bond portfolio

George (Fed) supporting bond taper this year

June hiking priced at 43%

EURUSD daily – getting crowded

GBPUSD daily – no risks of Brexit negotiations removed

More to go? Will the 1.2800 hold? How long?

The move occurred on very thin liquidity

After surprise announcement

Data

EZ: CPI – no surprise expected, should stay in line

Beige Book (Fed)

Hansson (ECB) speaking (0800 GMT)

Coeure (ECB) speaking (1200 GMT)

Praet (ECB) speaking (1430 GMT)

Rosengren (Fed) speaking (1630 GMT)

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 10, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia with some caution

Europe opened higher but mixed now

Trump-Xi meeting – both declared friendship, trust and ready to work together…but no agreements

No real consensus on North Korea, US trade deficit on the table over the next three months

Chinese in South Korea to discuss North Korea

US NFPs lower on weather and layoffs in retail sector

Underlying theme staying strong with good household survey and unemployment rate down to 4.5% (full employment) without any change in participation rate

Canada still not sure about how US is committed to introducing a border tax

Oil looking for a balance between Syria, higher demand and drilling activity in US

Deutsche Bank raised EUR 8 bln of fresh capital what can please regulators

And help with new investments and legal expenses

Rio Tinto had a lower tax bill globally due to lower earnings

Fox (part of Murdoch’s group) to acquire Sky

US equity funds experienced a huge outflow

As US investors search for better opportunities overseas going to Q1 earnings season

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.23%

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% - after US NFPs the yield dipped below 2.30% support but recovered quickly

Trys kept selling off as market focussed on positive part and Dudley downplayed the impact of reduction in balance sheet on the pace of rate hikes

And confirmed the reduction start at the end of 2017 or early 2018

Moves in USD and Trys yields after NFPs clearly point to stronger USD and higher US yields

ECB to publish bond buying data (first after lowering the monthly buying amount)

Used to buy EUR 365 mln a day

Staying close to EUR 300 mln a day may have a positive effect on corporates but negative on govs

Recall – ECB has not specified about the split: govs/corps, sector…etc.

COT report

EUR staying pretty flat after adding few shorts

GBP near record shorts after trimming them a bit

USDJPY – traders not sure about risk off mood as the JPY weakens (after NFPs/Dudley)

If we get well above 112.00, we are likely on the way higher towards 115.00

Gold 3m vols very low close to 2013/2014 levels

If geopolitical/risk off even or 200 DMA at 1255 broken

We can see a sharp move higher

Data

EZ: Sentix Investor Confidence Index expecting higher print

US: Labor Market Conditions Index expecting a lower number

US: Employment Trends Index to provide a bit more clarity on Friday’s NFPs

G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy today

Yellen speaking (2000 GMT)

Short week ahead of Easter holidays, thus lower liquidity

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but with caution

Trump revoking pro-climate regulations

…having fun of all those …exits….? Well, me too.

Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, Germanexit, Brexit…and now:

Scoxit – Scottish parliament said yes to second Scottish referendum

UK Gov will not negotiate about it, thus the vote is just symbolic in nature

Norther Ireland looking at joining Ireland to become a part of EU

Seems to have busy upcoming two years after UK triggering Art 50 today

May to speak at Parliament at 11:30 GMT

Formal Brexit announcement at 12:30 GMT at the latest

As at 12:45 GMT Tusk (EU Council President) holds a press conference

GBPUSD down on unofficial Brexit trigger (to 1.2378 from around 1.2600 yesterday)

Tusk to focus on negotiations terms first, the rest may follow

EURGBP – a sentiment test today as the official letter gets delivered

USD turning the corner primarily on Trys yields expectations, general sentiment what is also reflected in important USD pairs

To keep the momentum we need continuation of good data and attractive tax policy terms

Fischer (Fed) seeing two more hikes as right this year

10-yr Trys yield at 2.42%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

Tesla – Chinese Tencent owning 5% shares what means a stable long-term relationship and fresh capital stream for Tesla

Roche Holding obtained an approval for multiple sclerosis drug from FDA

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals obtained an approval for dermatitis drug from FDA

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank positive on S&P credit rating upgrade

On the back of a new law in Germany benefiting senior creditors

More and more bankers working for London based banks are getting nervous about what operations will be moved to EU

What in turn puts a pressure on the banks to keep the skilled and experienced employees from leaving

S&P 500 staying above 2350 support (next 2300)

But below the descending trendline

Valuations weighting on the market

Data

GE: Import Price Index – was up +0.7%

US: Pending Home Sales Index – to rise despite shortage of houses

Speakers:

Evans (1320 GMT)

Rosengren (1520 GMT)

Praet (1650 GMT)

Friday – EU issuing a statement on Brexit to define the guidelines

Apr 4 – EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opened lower

Brexit bill approved without any amendments – victory for May

Not to be invoked before Mar 27

FTSE pushed to retest the highs

14 mln Americans to lose medicare coverage is a bit bitter pill for Trump and his administration to swallow

Merkel to meet Trump on Friday instead of today due to flight cancellation (NY area bad weather conditions)

Intel buying Mobileye (USD 15.3 bln) to enter the field of autonome driving with direct competition of Nvidia and Qualcomm

Building a one place to do get all, so car makers can get all what they need in driverless technology and equipment

Mylan settled with Roche to produce a biosimilar version of breast cancer drug

Vista Equity Partners buying DH Corp (CAD 4.8 bln) to bet on fintech future

Morgan Stanley taking wealth management more digital and hiring tech specialist to train advisors

Blackstone to set up EU headquarters in Luxembourg

US cyclicals reversed yesterday and VIX dropped, proving we are in a bullish trend going to FOMC

EUR – a nice correction of Friday move in many crosses

But let’s wait for FOMC and market reaction

Thursday to be a “D” day (decision day) for EURUSD and its direction

USD – getting muscles ahead of FOMC

FX options

Vols keep falling with Implied still above Realized

Despite risk events like Dutch elections and FOMC

Once these events are off the table, expecting further drop in vols

Looking further to French election vols on election days decline in line with overall market

Seeing the vols cheap considering that Le Pen is still strong part of the presidential race

May be vols pricing is derived from current market sentiments? It doesn’t really make sense.

GBP vols no reaction to Brexit bill approval

Just spot dropped to 1.2123 from around 1.2200

Vols in line with the market heading lower

Trys and Bund yields higher (2.62% and 0.48% respectively)

Peripheral spreads unchanged, waiting for Dutch elections tomorrow

GE-FR spread steady at 61 bps, to watch reaction to Dutch elections results

Oil still second guessing on how big and sustainable the supply overhang is

WTI and Brent oversold, resistance 50.60 and 53.30 respectively

US shale production rising

Gold range bound

Levels: 1177, 1193 and 1210, 1221

Data

GE: ZEW Economic Survey – expecting higher

EZ: Industrial Production – expecting higher

US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – to keep positive

This week is busy:

Mar 13-14 – US budget draft to show first details of Trumps stimulus plan

Mar 15 – FOMC (25 bps hike expected)

Mar 15 – Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)

Mar 15 – US debt ceiling deadline

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not behaving in a normal way)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17 – Merkel meeting Trump

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks already taking profits and positioning ahead of FOMC next week

EU opening lower

Obamacare replacement will not be as smooth Trump would hope for

Oil under pressure from expected rise in US inventories (market still oversupplied and US production rising)

Gold through 1220, staying above 1210 (50/100 DMA) needed to be on bullish side

Getting support from risk but Fed hike, rising USD and yields represent headwinds

Caution ahead of NFPs and FOMC

US stocks in a search for new (after Trump trade) inspiration

Favoring more Europe after political risks off the table

S&P 500 key support short term at 2350

Get ready for huge changes in auto industry driven by introduction of green cars, car sharing and automated driving. More M&A coming?

Volkswagen positive on group 2017 outlook

Latest hit over selling US technology to North Korea or Iran of USD 892 mln was taken by Chinese ZTE as result of settlement with US

HP eyeing Nimble Storage in a data storage hunt (USD 1.09 bln)

Snap lower on short sellers stepping in

Good at cleaning the oil wells? Province of Alberta to get funding from Canadian budget to clean up after bankrupt producers.

Citibank including Chinese bonds to its indices

Forex

Nothing overwhelming should happen today as market is waiting for ECB, NFPs and FOMC for inspiration and further direction

GBP – unless UK Prime Minister May will try to override her second defeat from Lords yesterday (Brexit bill)

Key level 1.2000

EURCHF – reacting to political risks in EU, already moving going to ECB

EURUSD – 1m implied vols printing new lows since 2014

Market looking for a trigger

Fed hike is fully priced

But only hike is priced in, nothing else…

Yesterday ECB published details of bond buying program

Saw a significant shift over to shorter durations in bonds it buys

Bunds Feb duration to 4.3 years from 9.4 years in Jan

Data

GE: Industrial production to edge higher after 7.4% drop in Jan

US: ADP Employment expected up to 190k but lower than previous. Market curious about productivity growth (same for NFPs).

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia started on a bad note but recouped the losses

EU markets opened higher

Trump not to cut social welfare programs: Social Security and Medicare

US Treasury Sec Mnuchin – fiscal stimulus impact this year muted (not helping USD and yields)

Busy week with plenty of Fed speakers to be watched for clues on Mar 15 rate hike (priced at 40%)

If there are no really strong comments, especially from Yellen on Friday, we should look at May or June meeting rate hike

Chinese Navy will benefit from rich funding as China to challenge US on the sea

Speculative longs in WTI from HFs reaching new high at 443 mln barrels

Russell 2000 lagging S&P 500 on fiscal stimulus delayed till end of summer or later

Note that small to medium caps will benefit more from fiscal stimulus, thus are much more sensitive to any news

LSE & Deutsche Borse merger unlikely getting approved by EU Commission

Nokia 3310 is back (by the way, I love my BlackBerry Bold…)

Stada is opening the books as a part of acquisition process

Bond yields hitting the lows on risk off and disappointment on Trump

10 yr US Trys yield at support level of the 2.31-2.55% range

GBP not feeling well on a risk of new Scottish referendum

EURUSD still in a range of going nowhere (1.0500-1.0680)

With 1.0500 super strong and battle ground within the range of 1.0500-1.0520 on the downside

Trump’s speech or US PCE inflation can shed some light on further direction

USDJPY – still very sensitive and may react strongly on Trump if we see lots of pro-inflationary talk that will spur the yields rise

Below 1125.50 we have next target 111.60 if Trump doesn’t deliver

Take a not of shrinking Ichimoku cloud on daily chart

Market may be pre-positioning for disappointment

May hit 110 or 115 (chance are widely open)

Vols pretty cheap either direction

Gold – 200 DMA at 1262 ahead of us

May see some profit taking ahead of Trump tomorrow

Fibo levels: 1250 (50%) and 1279 (61.8%)

Data

Mon:

EZ: Business Climate Indicator – to decline slightly

EZ: Consumer confidence – to decline more

US: Durable Goods Orders – to rise

US: Pending home sales – expecting 1% increase

Fed’s Kaplan (1600) – Q&A session

Tue:

2^nd estimate of US GDP expecting at 2.1% vs 1.9% last month

US: Consumer confidence – expecting no change

US: House prices – expecting 5.3%

Fed’s Williams, Bullard speaking

Trump at joint session of Congress (0200-0330 Wed)

Likely to express opinions and plans closer to Congress way of thinking than his ideas from presidential campaign

Wed:

US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase

US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher

ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change

Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking

Beige Book

Thu:

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Super Wednesday Mar 15, 2017

Dutch elections

FOMC meeting

US debt ceiling deadline – if no agreement is reached as of Mar 16 the USD 20.1 trillion limit on federal debt is in place

What will stop Trump from his stimulus plans until the deal with Republicans is agreed

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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