Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 21, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Crude trader’s focus back on fundamentals, oversupply

After a week of increased uncertainty following the anticorruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, the focus is re-shifting toward fundamentals again. A Tuesday sell-off was triggered by the IEA monthly report where the agency reduced its’ global demand forecast by around 100k bpd in contrary to the last OPEC Monthly report from a day earlier. The bears got some additional support in the evening from the increased oil inventories reported by API. The next day the official government data confirmed the oil stock accumulation but didn’t cause additional selling as the main damage was done on Tuesday.

Although the crude jumped up 2.6% on the last trading day of the week, further rally will need some geopolitical support as the fundamentals seems to be improving. The US oil production hit new multi month record at 9.65 mil bpd and it seems the crude output is on its way to reach 10 mil bpd in a few months time. Additional pressure came from Russia with its wavering support for the extension of the OPEC production curb deal. The cartel has a schedule meeting on 30th November where the member states should decide whether to extend the agreement beyond March 2018.

The next important oil related reports are:

Tuesday – EIA Monthly Energy Review and API weekly oil stocks and refinery operations

Wednesday – EIA weekly petroleum status report

For the technical view please check the weekly WTI chart:

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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June 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening lower

FOMC – more hawkish than expected

Inflation expectations adjusted but Yellen sees a good ground for prices to keep rising

Likely start to taper in Sep, another rate hike in Dec

Some may ask why Fed doesn’t want inflation to overshoot

Trump under investigation for obstruction of justice

Looks like they are still trying to find something on him or is he really such a mess…?

ECB’s Nowotny questioning 2% inflation target as tons of money still not pushing prices to the target

Equities

Nokia entering the router market, where Juniper and Cisco do well, by launching the fastest network chips

Rosneft going offshore

Private equity eager investors pump USD 7 bln to new fund from Goldman Sachs

Bank of America sees opportunities in international cash management

US banks eying Saudi’s market as Morgan Stanley and Citi are there, and Goldman Sachs applying for a license

Looks like few reforms, upcoming Aramco IPO, Trump’s visit can make Saudi Arabia an investment destination

Google reached an agreement with Indonesia over future tax payments (I like this one…who wouldn’t like to cap the upcoming tax bill)

Thomson Reuters launching a set up to offer its data flow via blockchain technology

So the firms can use Ethereum and Corda based trading systems with Reuters data

US financials, especially life insurers, to benefit from rising rates

While utilities, telcos and real estate on short term negative side

Resources stocks to offer an interesting value

In particular energy but need some credit events and cleaning within the space

Canadian Natural Resources, AltaGas, Roxgold can be looked at

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14% - yield development is crucial for further direction of EURUSD and USDJPY

10-yr Bund yield at 0.23%

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500? …asked the questions yesterday but today too…

Consolidation lower after FOMC is on the cards

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA) with sellers sitting around

Then 1.1300 (based on FOMC price action)

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo) but strong at 1.1013 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids sitting between 109-109.50

Offers seen going to 110.00

With decent options expiring today and tomorrow at this level

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.61 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Upcoming Data/Events

Basel Committee concluding meeting over bank rules

ECB’s Draghi and Coeure at Eurogroup meeting

Greece – any resolution? Again at least temporary?

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

June 19 – Brexit talks starting ?

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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