Showing posts with label #Nowotny. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Nowotny. Show all posts

Thursday, 15 June 2017

June 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower
Europe opening lower
FOMC – more hawkish than expected
Inflation expectations adjusted but Yellen sees a good ground for prices to keep rising
Likely start to taper in Sep, another rate hike in Dec
Some may ask why Fed doesn’t want inflation to overshoot


Trump under investigation for obstruction of justice
Looks like they are still trying to find something on him or is he really such a mess…?

ECB’s Nowotny questioning 2% inflation target as tons of money still not pushing prices to the target

Equities

Nokia entering the router market, where Juniper and Cisco do well, by launching the fastest network chips
Rosneft going offshore
Private equity eager investors pump USD 7 bln to new fund from Goldman Sachs
Bank of America sees opportunities in international cash management
US banks eying Saudi’s market as Morgan Stanley and Citi are there, and Goldman Sachs applying for a license
Looks like few reforms, upcoming Aramco IPO, Trump’s visit can make Saudi Arabia an investment destination
Google reached an agreement with Indonesia over future tax payments (I like this one…who wouldn’t like to cap the upcoming tax bill)
Thomson Reuters launching a set up to offer its data flow via blockchain technology
So the firms can use Ethereum and Corda based trading systems with Reuters data

US financials, especially life insurers, to benefit from rising rates
While utilities, telcos and real estate on short term negative side
Resources stocks to offer an interesting value
In particular energy but need some credit events and cleaning within the space
Canadian Natural Resources, AltaGas, Roxgold can be looked at

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14% - yield development is crucial for further direction of EURUSD and USDJPY
10-yr Bund yield at 0.23%

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500? …asked the questions yesterday but today too…
Consolidation lower after FOMC is on the cards
Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA) with sellers sitting around
Then 1.1300 (based on FOMC price action)
Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo) but strong at 1.1013 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids sitting between 109-109.50
Offers seen going to 110.00
With decent options expiring today and tomorrow at this level
Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.61 (200 DMA)
Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Upcoming Data/Events

Basel Committee concluding meeting over bank rules
ECB’s Draghi and Coeure at Eurogroup meeting
Greece – any resolution? Again at least temporary?

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

June 19 – Brexit talks starting ?


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
  

Friday, 17 March 2017

Mar 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia cautious before G20 FinMin and central bankers meeting (Fri/Sat)
EU opening lower
Foreign investors to be able to by Chinese mainland bonds in HK (important change going forward)
G20 – not high expectation, protectionism, free trade and currencies the main themes
US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin made “diplomatic comments” on USD and good international trade relations


US budget – Trump looking at heavy spending for security, topped with cuts in green projects, diplomacy and foreign aid programs
This may back fire to US as they will lose the international presence to mainly China
New approach from US to North Korea coming

US defense stocks to do well (draft of new budget) but trading at high valuations
S&P 500 weak with 2370/80 support
EU equities – as mentioned few time before EU stocks may be an interesting opportunity on the back of short covering after eventual Le Pen defeat
Institutional investors and HF staying short EUR and hedging stock positions for now
What may be reversed after FR elections

Gold – correction higher coming to an end as weaker USD is being offset by higher bond yields
Still neutral but geopolitical risks and potential stock market correction may push gold higher

Nowotny knocked it up yesterday evening – as ECB rate increase may be on the way
Could rise deposit rate before main refinancing rate and end of QE
His comments helped EUR and Bund yields higher

10-yr Bunds yields erased half of the FOMC losses
Now 0.47%, on the way to 0.50%
10-yr Trys yields higher at 2.53%
In between the lines there was also “likely” discussion about who will replace Draghi in 2019
…now it makes sense why Nowotny’s rhetoric was so strong

On the contrary:

USD pullback not to last long as it is getting expensive as it is getting expensive to finance short USD positions
FX markets not reflective yet the rate differentials
Rates not reflecting the 2018/19 dots fully
USD is the 3rd highest yielding currency among G10

DXY support at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), then 99.00
Zone of uncertainty, range to decide about next USD direction
USD needs to find support around these levels
Otherwise we have already reached a cyclical high

Data

UK: Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin – anything on future rate hikes?
US: Industrial Production – expected further increase
US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – a negative surprise may be coming
Merkel meeting Trump today

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom