Jan 11, 2018 - Market Update (Crytpos getting hit in SoKo, Chinese like Trys anyway, 10-yr Trys yields holds above 2.50% despite China/BoJ, USDJPY looking towards 110.00 ?, VIX above 10 but still very low, Bayer hoarding cash by selling more Covestro, Aramco seeking cheap loans ahead of IPO, PIMCO to buy more Trys on recent weakness, SNB with profit of USD 55 bln)

Short recap

Asian in red as stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10

Europe opening lower

Cryptos – SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges

China – halt of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice money..)

US attacking NAFTA, opting for more protectionism

While French Macron signing nice contracts in China

Equities

Volatility still remains low but that can change quickly

As markets may get nervous at current record levels

Will get more hints from Q4 earnings season kicking off 

Earnings may be irrelevant to some extent and investors will be more interested in discussing:

US effective tax rates, CAPEX outlooks and buybacks/dividend payouts

…what about positioning ourselves in cash, gold and bonds without any equity link in 2018?

Bayer selling bigger stake in Covestro (EUR 1.5 bln) to hoard the cash

Intel may go short on security issues against its competitors

Aramco seeking cheap loans before IPO

Canada speeding up Basel rules implementation

Likely this year

PIMCO may buys some US Trys on the recent weakness

Berkshire Hathaway moving higher on Buffett’s succession moves

By adding Abel, Jain to the board

SNB with USD 55 bln profit in 2017  link 

From its USD 800 bln holdings of US/EU stocks, bonds and gold

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.53% (printing high at 2.59% yesterday)

Surprisingly staying above 2.50% level despite China denouncing halt of Trys purchases

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

Spikes in US 2-yr and 5 yr yields were translated yesterday into 10-yr Trys/Bunds as well

Chinese slowdown or hald of Trys purchases and speculation about BoJ taper were the main triggers

Investors look at US inflation linked bonds as economic growth, rising oil and commodity prices

Are likely to spur inflation

BoJ keeps bond buying unchanged despite news from yesterday 

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1962 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1994 (10 DMA), offers sitting above 1.2000

Support at 1.1915, 1.1831 (10/50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

111.71 (200 DMA) may act as a support for correction higher

112.00 again in sight but seller sitting here

Resistance at 111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 112.24 (100 DMA) and 112.37 (Ichimoku)

The potential rally should fade here as well

JP investors like US yields but unhappy with recent moves in JPY

Chinese Trys plans and BoJ potential tapering as themes fade away

BoJ hates volatility – likely to keep all under control as they proved with no change to JGB buying today

Interesting to see USDJPY not bouncing higher after China/BoJ today and higher Trys yields?

One may think that further JPY strength is to come…

Support at 111.02 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.26 and 110.83 (short specs may bail out here)

And we can see a dip to 110.14 (61.8% Fibo) with psychological 110.00 level next

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

After consolidation on rising yields higher

As the news about China slowing down/halting Trys purchases and BoJ potential tapering (resulting in stronger JPY/weaker USD) pushed gold higher

Still feels support from stocks in red and rising physical demand from China

But need a correction before moving higher again

Support at 1314 (10 DMA), then 1300 and 1290 (100 DMA)

Resistance at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Dudley (2030 GMT)

Eurogroup president speaking about future of EZ (1630 GMT)

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.

Good luck Champs!

  

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Oct 2, 2017 - Market Update (Catalan 90% vote, Johnson-May old friends, DAX attacking 12 954 on weaker EUR, 10-yr Trys yield bullish close, Global equity funds enjoying the money in rally)

Short recap

Asian up

Europe opening higher

Catalonian 90% vote for independence

Madrid and police not comfortable with it

Declaration of independence likely to come in 48 hours

Boris Johnson sees Theresa May gone within the year (friends…)

Boeing-Bombardier dispute a proof of UK-US Trump kind of preferential partnership

Warsh the new Fed’s head after meeting with Trump

Used to be a Fed gov (2006/11) but resigned over disagreement over bond buying

Other candidates might be: Yellen, Cohn, Powell, Hubbard

ECB close to tapering? What about the business and consumer confidence hitting multiyear highs…

Equities

Volkswagen making up the diesel scandal bill up to USD 30 bln

Global Logistic Properties buying Gazeley (USD 2.8 bln) to enter EU as a lucrative market

Germany eying to buy warplanes from Boeing

Bombardier goes short against Boeing but seals USD 1.7 bln deal with SpiceJet from India to sell 50 planes

Global equity funds still growing in size as investor poor money in

Cryptocurrency exchanges still facing the security and fraud issues

DAX to benefit from weaker EUR, next stop 12 954 or higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.58% vs 2.58% on Friday – had a bullish close on Friday posting outside month/monthly reversal

10-yr Bund yield at 1.67% vs 1.07% on Friday

Spanish bonds - Catalan vote impact – we need to see market reaction first

As we balance between the independence and strong economy

COT report as of Tue last week

USD: Leveraged funds net sellers

Shorts at the highest level since May 2014

EUR: Largest net buying

Longs at 88k vs 62k previously

GBP: First net longs since Oct 2015

Longs 5k vs shorts 10k previously

EURUSD

Gapped lower but Catalan vote to have a short-lived impact

Unless we see a deep constitutional crisis in Spain

Support at 1.1762 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1844 (50 DMA)

USDJPY

Worth of watching as DXY is getting some bullish signs

And Trump is moving with tax reform

Cross posted also a bullish monthly reversal on Friday

And trades above the descending trend line)

What may open the door towards 114.36-50 range (recent highs)

Or even 118.60/65 if we seen the Trump trade back

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Catalan vote had no major impact

Other geopolitical risks: NoKo, Kurdistan-Turkey, Iraq, Iran

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

ECB’s Linde (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1015 & 1300 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1800 GMT)

Oct 1-4 – UK’s Tory party meeting

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Tue

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Dudley

Fed’s Powell

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Harker

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bullard

Fed’s Kaplan

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Sept 12, 2017 - Market Update (Risk off on NoKo, Irma, higher bond yields, change in CNY policy, Cryptos banned but PBOC supporting blockchain, Regulation to come, Samsung cheering over Note 8, Apple's new iPhone 8 with USD 1000 price tag?, Gold prone to correct to 1300 if no risks off, Japanese stocks ok as long as USDJPY above 108.00)

Short recap

Asia printing 10-yr highs

Europe opening higher

Jump in bond yields supporting risk on

China likely to change policy in order to avoid quick appreciation of CNY

New milder sanctions against NoKo approved by UN

No NoKo reaction yet, markets relieved a bit

Brexit repeal vote approved, a huge relief for May

Some ECB officials pretty hawkish yesterday but no policy change indication

China’s ICO (crypto) ban targeting illegal activities only 

PBOC ok with blockchain technology as such

Equities

Samsung cheering the pre-orders for new Note 8 well beating Note 7 success

Volkswagen to invest EUR 20 bln into e-cars

Buying a new sunglasses? EU not happy with Luxottica-Essilor merger (EUR 46 bln)

Apple to show new iPhone 8 but what about the price of USD 1000 ?

Equifax facing hard time after getting hacked

Cancer immunotherapy an option?

BP goes IPO with some US assets

Citi down 15% with trading revenue

Societe Generale selling 49% of its Chinese AM to Warburg Pincus

Japanese stocks should do well as long USDJPY stays above 108.00

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.13%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%s

DXY

Short term strength in USD here as US yields, stocks

Popped up yesterday but need to sustain the gains today too

After showing the hammer at the low last week is now creating a morning star

Fed hawks on the crossroad as they need to reassess the impact of hurricanes on potential Dec hike

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 89.00 area

Gold

May be prone to correct to 1300 on NoKo, Irma risk off and higher US yields

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Sep 5, 2017 - Market Update (Very quiet in the markets…, North Korea making a storm?, Cryptos hit with Bitcoin & Ethereum down, JPY not what it used to be against Gold, EURUSD ready to correct if Draghi impresses, United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins, Air Berlin keeps flying for now)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening flat to slightly higher

Very quiet in the markets…

North Korea still an issue, preparing another launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch place

BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not taking any actions against NoKo

China the key player even if US, SoKo and JP decide to act

US pushing for new UN sanctions likely targeting Chinese banks doing biz with NoKo

Crypto currencies had a tough day yesterday after China banning the new issue (ICOs)

Bitcoin down 16%, likely more regulations coming

Hurricane Irma getting stronger

Fed Dec hike at 40%

JPY losing its safe haven status to gold on North Korea risks  link

Equities

More defensive stance warranted like higher exposure to utilities, telecom, health care, consumer staples or gold miners

Europe – more neutral after EUR rise, US more positive on USD decline

Volkswagen not selling Ducati (EUR 1.5 bln), at least for now

Air Berlin keeps flying with the help of GE government

United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins (USD 30 bln) – a nice shift in the aerospace supplier space

That is still fragmented, premium is above 7% (still low) what may attract other bidders

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.13% vs 2.16% yesterday

Yields to go lower, to be watched after US holiday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.38% yesterday

EURUSD

Slight bid tone on NoKo tensions

If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area

And eventually correct further to 1.1400/1500 level

As a part of 4^th wave correction and Draghi impressing the market

Daily/Monthly RSI showing significant divergences

Monthly 23.6% Fibo at 1.1661, 38.2% Fibo at 1.1409

But overall little action before ECB

If Draghi doesn’t deliver 1.1950 is the next…

Resistance at 1.1950, 1.1980, 1.2070

Support at 1.1892 (55 HMA), 1.1892 (10 DMA), 1.1845 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

110.00 as a ceiling due to risks holds

Bias slightly lower with bids at 109.20/00

Institutionals may be buying on downside

Key support at 108.26

JPY/Gold – JPY is not a safe haven as it used to be

As it lags the rally in gold by huge margin

But only in current NoKo tensions when rockets fly over Japan

Gold

Entire metal space seems to be overbought

Resistance in sight at 1375

Strong support at 1300/10

Data/events

BRICS’ summit in China

Fed’s Brainard (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1630 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2300 GMT)

Thu

Mester (Fed)

Dudley (Fed)

ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low inflation vs still rising EUR

ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

Expecting dovish ECB with no hawkish surprise at all

Draghi to talk down EUR, if he delivers spot can move to 1.15/1600 territory

If not, the 1.1950 if the next…

Let’s get ready for low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)

Economic growth not impacted by strong EUR yet

Fri

Fed’s Harker

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Norway is getting out of everything but dollars, euros and pounds  link

To read as it is an interesting shift in Norwegian wealth fund strategy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More