Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower

Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln

But overall friendly remarks on both sides

China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial companies

Trump not meeting Putin at APEC conference

Brexit – Northern Ireland part of single market and customs union according to EU internal papers

China to cut corporate tax rates for high tech companies

Equities

Toshiba planning to raise JPY 600 bln from new shares in a hunt for cash to avoid delisting

Burberry looking more at high-end offering but at what cost?

PSA Group moving fast with pushing its own technology to Opel

Cameco cutting 10% of its uranium production on low prices

Is it a turning point in uranium market after it has lost almost 70% since Fukushima (2011) ?

Allianz’s profit down 17%

Keystone XL having commercial back up

Monsanto not linked to cancer

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34% vs 2.33% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.33% yesterday

Very significant jump in yields in Europe yesterday

DXY

US tax reform a question mark

Weekly close important as we sit above important levels

A continuation of inverted H&S or not?

Support 94.19 (23.6% Fibo), 94.05 (Aug 2016 low), 93.77 (100 DMA)

Resistance 94.62 (10 DMA), 96.03 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market is quiet waiting for a new inspiration from next week’s US data

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA)

And below 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Expiring options (EUR 2.4 bln) with strikes between 1.1500/50

USDJPY

Quiet trading after not being able to break 114.50 few days ago on lacking US yield support

If we see the cross back above 114.00/25 you may consider rally continuation
But is has to be supported by US data next week

Otherwise if no pick up in 10-yr Trys yields towards 2.40% and above the return to 113.00 to come

Resistance at 113.76 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Staying above 112.60 may help bulls (from Thu):

Oil

What’s driving the market?

Saudi Arabia and supply cuts vs strong demand

Rally from USD 42 to 57 was supported by shutdowns due to hurricanes and ongoing Saudi Arabia upheaval

Seems to be exhausted and well overdone

Growing US production will be proved by data soon

On top of that not abiding with production cuts from OPEC members to be visible too

Likely to push prices of oil lower going to year end

At the moment traders are hesitant to take profits as they are not sure

How the situation in Saudi Arabia will develop

Likely to take profits after few days of pausing

Brent/WTI spread should stay around USD 6 on transport constrains between Cushing and Gulf coast

Brent daily

Support levels 62.00 than 60.00

Source: Saxo Bank 

WTI daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (1260 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 27, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC on summer vacation, playing safe, DXY close to support levels, EURUSD close to 200 WMA (1.1794), Gold/gold miners going higher? Heavy Deutsche Bank, Facebook enjoying the ride, Cameco - weak uranium price making heavy print)

Short recap

Asia up on dovish feeling Fed (stocks, bonds and commodities up)

Europe opening flat

ECB’s Nowotny – some room to reduce asset purchase from Jan 2018 but not stopping them

EU warned US over new sanctions against Russia as energy security is on the table

UK’s Rudd promised to keep access for EU workers

UK’s car industry production down 14% in June

US New home sales still growing but at a softer pace

FOMC – on summer vacation

Market feeling a dovish bias and lower likelihood of another 2017 hike

Balance sheet reduction to start relatively soon (market expecting announcement in Sep)

Repeated that inflation to rise to 2%

But admitted undershooting of 2% target

Equities

Daimler thinking about splitting some divisions

Third Point betting on Alibaba again as they see opportunities

No new sales of petrol/diesel cars in UK from 2040

Deutsche Bank to list its asset management arm but not before late 2018

Foxconn to build a new plant in US (3000 new jobs)

AGCO buying farm equipment division from Monsanto

Earnings

Samsung pretty comfortable with chip outlook, reported a record profits

Facebook doing well in mobile ads (up 50%), while strengthening its attraction as a social media

Amazon.com – to report better revenue supported by retail and cloud. Hungry a bit? What about the Whole Foods Market acquisition – any hints?

Procter & Gamble – organic sales should help the numbers

Celgene – investors are positive, would like to learn more on licensing deal with BeiGene

Cameco – results to be impacted by still ongoing fall in uranium prices. Market may also be interest in the progress/resolution of Tepco issue?

MasterCard – investors are positive

Intel – investors are positive by data center business will scrutinized

Twitter – market is expecting a decline in revenue on user growth stagnation

Deutsche Bank – investor worry about the results as the bank undergoes restructuring, Brexit and Trump Russian ties. All of that is also combined with ECB’s investigation of Qatar royal family and Chinese HNA who are bank’s largest shareholders.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28% (up)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.55% (down)

DXY

Offered tone, sentiment getting more bearish

As cautious Fed and political mess in Washington pressure USD

Close to support levels

EURUSD

Marching higher, no clear top yet, outside day reversal

Watching: 1.1750, 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo) and then 1.20/2200

Likely 1.1800 will be respected as ECB to turn dovish soon too

On falling inflation and missing wage growth

So the 1.1750 and 200 WMA may be seen as the top

Support of note 1.1615, then 1.1580

USDJPY

Pressured by lower US yields, long liquidate seen

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries between 111.00-111.30 (more than USD 1.7 bln)

Life insurers with lower interest in foreign bonds

Has some room to get and stay above 114.00 toward year end

Gold

Resistance at 1264 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Watch also ascending and descending trendlines

As it trades above 1250 (100 DMA) we may see opportunities from a long side

Not only in spot but also in gold mining stocks

On the back of low inflation, weak USD and Trump

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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