I guess all of us are getting ready for Sunday/Monday night,
so let’s have a look at certain times:
1800 GMT – First exit polls
1900 GMT – First projections based on votes counted
2000 GMT – Various estimates for 2nd round when substantial
part of the votes is counted
2100 GMT – Should have more clarity and if not, would need
to wait until midnight when most of the votes are counted
Some Exit polls should be available from midday but in
Belgium Swiss media only.
EURUSD levels in case
of 1st round results:
Macron-Fillon (Le
Pen eliminated) - EUR may enjoy gapping up close to 1.1000 level and then, it
is a sell…
…or wait for a rally towards 1.1000 if Sunday opens lower
and then sell
Macron-Le Pen –
widely expected outcome with some traders seeing EURUSD staying within 1.07/0800
range but we after initial volatility still see a relief rally towards 1.1000
on the back of 2nd round expectations and then, again selling the
rallies. Crucial to any surprise (especially to negative one) will be by what
margin Macron will win over Le Pen as the market may get nervous in case of a close-close
win.
Le Pen-Melenchon –
let’s get ready for swift moves and sell any kind of bounce to target parity,
0.96/9400 and may be 0.9000, followed by a big buy after summer holidays. This
scenario is very unlikely but…we already
have Brexit and Trump here.
In case of Le Pen
surprising and winning the 1st round, by what margin she wins will be important. In case of a close win,
market will manage but a decisive win 30%+ vote can make many traders very
nervous ahead of May 7 vote. Still in case Le Pen becoming a president, the
French have a chance to block some of her policies via Legislative
(Parliamentary) elections taking place on Jun 11 and Jun 18, 2017.
Next elections to watch are in Germany on Sep 24, 2017.
Followed by Italian elections not later than May 23, 2018 as
the current parliamentary term expires on Mar 15, 2018.
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
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