Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government

No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty

Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause

What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore

Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not willing to resign yesterday

But a new deal is on the table with full immunity

Goldman Sachs sees Fed hiking 4 times in 2018

Lloyd Blankefein was heard that many would like to have confirming Brexit vote

Excessive risk taking at record level

‘Irrational Exuberance’ May Rule the Roost in Stock Markets  link

BAML fund-manager survey shows risk taking at all-time high

Investors see stocks as overvalued but bullish on growth

Equities

Volkswagen taking it seriously and investing EUR 23 bln in development

Apple not on time with smart speaker HomePod for Christmas

Tesla short of cash soon to ask for new money

To keep financing trucks, roadster and acceleration of production

Norway sovereign wealth fund to remove oil and gas companies

From its benchmark and cut their holdings

S&P 500

Resistance 2581 (10 DMA), 2589, 2597-2600

Support 2554 (23.6% Fibo), 2549, 2544

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD

Support area 1.1675-1700, 1.1710 (200 HMA),1.1714 (high from Aug 2015), 1.1747 (100 DMA)

Resistance 1.1759 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1771 (50 DMA), 1.1778 (55 HMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

US tax reform, Germany and USD in play

Top range 1306 level needs to be taken off decisively

In order to break medium-term resistance

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1306

Support 1287 (50 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1280 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Nowotny (1145 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1400 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1600 GMT)

EU Council meeting

CEE bankers conference

Wed

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

Fri

US bond trading close, stocks open halfday

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 20, 2017 - Market Update (US Senate moving on budget, US jobless claims hitting multidecade low - positive on spending/GDP/inflation/USD, Catalonian bank run, S&P 500 tested the support around 2544/40, Earnings to set the tone for today's trading, Schlumberger results important for correction in energy stocks)

Short recap

Asia up after some hesitation at the beginning

Europe opening higher

US Senate moving on 2018 budget, next step towards tax reform

US jobless claims hitting multidecade low what means more people working, more money for spending

As consumption is 60% of US GDP, we can see in the future higher GDP growth pressuring up inflation

Merkel positive on Brexit progress but not at the stage to move to trade talks

Catalonian separatists supporting bank run what may send shockwaves across equity markets in Europe

BoJ’s Kuroda – to continue with powerful QE

Equities

Stocks had a test day yesterday on Catalan risk, speculations about high valuations and weaker earnings

Bias still negative today – a correction before weekend coming? Well, depends on earnings now…

S&P 500 tested the support (now around 2544/40) with resistance between 2573/75

But US Senate move with 2018 budget to reflect positive in today’s session

Apple hit by weak demand for iPhone 8

Greek banks Piraeus, National and Alpha looking to sell EUR 5.5 bln of bad loans

Nestle beefing up restructuring cost

Earnings

Weak in Europe – a strong EUR an issue or what?

Not stellar in US with slow revenue growth – are investors going to punish companies with sell off?

On the other hand low bond vs dividend yields still supportive for equities

Today: Daimler (disappointed), GE, Schlumberger, P&G, Honeywell

Energy market will focus on Schlumberger as any disappointment in outlook

Can translate into energy stocks correction that is already sitting on support

Little bit of perspective of Black Friday sell off in Oct 1987:

Few words as well…  link

  

…and back to today’s reality:

If all market participants are buying, there is no bear that can get converted to bull

If it is the case, there are no other buyers left…

  

But still some thoughts from Warren Buffett – video (49 min)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD - ready to correct big time and trading below parity? Next week's ECB holds the key as the 2yr Trys-Bunds spread is at extreme  link

  

DXY

200 WMA at 93.05 critical

EURUSD

Expiring options at 1.1800 (EUR 1.5 bln), then 1.850-55 (EUR 1.4 bln)

Likely to range 1.1800/50 today unless we get a surprise…

Resistance at 1.1847 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880, 1.1910

Support at 1.1800/10 (200 HMA), 1.1787 (Ichimoku), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Supported by higher yields on US budget news

Resistance at 113.43 with stops sitting above 113.50

To test 114.00, then 114.50 but stops above both levels

Exporters can be seen above 113.50

Support at 112.48 (10 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1289 (10 DMA)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1276 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

China National Congress (Fri/Sat)

EU Summit (Fri/Sat)

Czech parliamentary elections (Fri/Sat)

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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July 12, 2017 - Market Update (All about Yellen today, Merkel flying EUR high, Siemens chasing their turbines, Chinese banks another opportunity, Trump and Russia (but Junior this time), 10-yr Bund yields jumping above 0.60% mark)

Short recap

Europe opening higher

Trump Jr – Russia blow here but markets focus on Yellen

Trump administration constantly distracted, not focussing on proper work

Gary Cohn Trump’s candidate to replace Yellen

Fed’s Mester likes taper sooner rather than later

Merkel putting pressure on ECB to raise rates

JPM’s Dimon – taper can caught people by surprise

Chinese media speculations – PBOC should widen the 2% CNY daily trading band

Funds kept selling USDCNH overnight

Quarels as a Trump Fed nominee getting first oppose comments

Due to his ties to Wall Street and possibility that oversight of huge banks would be softer

Moody’s – Lack of clarity in Brexit making question marks around UK’s credibility

Equities

BlackRock - Investors need to take more risk  link

US asset managers underallocated EM stocks 

Total to invest USD 3.5 bln in Qatar offshore oil

Siemens chasing their turbines in Crimea even legally

Chinese banks underperformed their global peers but offer lower valuations and decent yields

Regulators were out saying the risk is in control

Snap hit by downgrade from Morgan Stanley (underwriter) on slower ad development

Instagram is biting in to Snap’s largest user base among young

Bonds

BoJ increased bond purchases in 3-5 yr space

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% but 5-yr/10-yr may experience some correction after recent move higher (support around 2.30%)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.61% - sharp jump from around 0.55% after yesterday’s comments from Merkel

EURUSD

Merkel, Trump Jr. – Russia thing, dovish Fed comments behind the move

1.1450 broken, on the way to 1.1580 as short term longs were open

Likely looking at 1.1615 as long as 10 DMA (1.1407) not clearly broken on dips

Next the 1.1714 and 1.1750 may come

Bear in mind that any rally above 1.1600 is way overstretched and likely not lasting

All about Yellen today, watch especially her remarks on inflation

But market is very very complacent about Fed moving…

USDJPY

Resistance at 114.36 high

Stops at 113.50 hit but dip demand helped

Support at 113.30 (10 DMA), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo), descending trendline

Dips below 113.00 may be a good point to renter longs

But 112.00 level can serve as a stop level

Expiring options USD 1.3 bln between 113/114.00

Market is very long USDJPY but short gamma

And 50/100/200 DMA at 111.89/78/66 very close

Again all about Yellen today

Gold

Support at 1214 low held, no more technical selling through

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

If broken along with 16.20 in Silver we can see more short covering

But Yellen today again…

Data/Events

Yellen testifying (1400 GMT) before Congress Committees today/tomorrow (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

Likely to confirm the continuation of normalization

Do financial conditions continue to ease

Job market and inflation

Balance sheet reduction – suspension of reinvestment policy coming announcement in Sep ?

Another rate hike in Dec ? Currently priced at 49%

ECB’s Linde 

ECB’ Dalhau, Dombret

Fed Beige Book (1800 GMT)

Fed’s George (1815 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 30, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks with cautious on Greece and Italy

China, Hong Kong closed on account of public holiday

Europe opening lower

Greece readying for not paying EUR 7 bln installment if bail out agreement/haircut not reached

Some banks in Italy and Portugal still facing issues

Macron met with Putin in Paris

Draghi is please by improving economy but stimulus/extra low rates to stay

Weidmann said that ultra-loose policy still appropriate

Equities

Akzo Nobel’s rejection of the offer from PPG Industries (EUR 25 bln) blessed by court

Clouds mounting over Canadian banks (Home Capital & real estate) as well as Australian banks (Chinese capital controls not boding well for Aussie real estate)

US equities printing new highs and volatility down putting global equities to positive light

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30%

EURUSD

Under pressure from Greece, potential snap elections in Italy, mess around UK and dovish Draghi

IT to introduce a new election threshold for parties (5%+)

What in turn will reduce number of parties elected to 4 from current 10+

Greek debt not to be included to QE program from ECB anytime soon

Nor Greece financing themselves in the markets

1.1140/55 range acting as resistance

If we close below the 1.1000 in sight

If we break than the 1.0840 will likely be the next

1.1000 – growing importance 

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

1.0978 (50.0% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring today

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

Stops likely below 110.85 level, bids can show up on a break

Large options (USD 2 bln) with strikes below 111.00 expiring today

200 DMA at 110.15 – a pretty strong support…

Data

GE: Flash CPI m/m expected at -0.1% and y/y expected at 1.6% vs 2.0% prior

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

ECB’s Liikanen (1015 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1700 GMT)

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but correcting

US & UK closed today on account of public holidays, some Asian countries as well

N. Korea playing with fire again

ZAR – Zuma still alive

Europe on its won after G7 and Merkel/Trump meeting

Tensions between US & EU mounting, nothing to change in the near term

Thank you Mr President for your kind EU/NATO wake up call

US to ban laptops from all flights in/out to US

US facing a shortage of houses while demand stays steady

What in turn will likely push prices higher in the years to come

Fed’s Williams – don’t want to disrupt the markets, medium term inflation trend “pretty favourable”

Equities

British Airways still experiencing issues with computer system

Investment conference in NY – may have some headlines on Q2 expectations from financials

Gazprom meeting with EU antitrust chief

Bombardier with first CS300 deliveries

US techs pushing US gov to increase privacy protection

Qualcomm to pay BlackBerry USD 940 mln in royalties

Chinese real estate companies flying high…may be too high…

Aramco – after LSE, NYSE it is now turn for Canadian TSE to lure IPO listing relying on its natural resources expertize

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Quiet trading ahead of ECB and Fed June meetings

GE/EZ inflation data to show whether ECB is right with staying cautious on inflation ahead of June 8 meeting

Italy – markets will start to focus on Italy at some point

As EZ grows but Italy doesn’t

Japanese insurers like US bonds more over European papers (staying cautious)

They usually lend them to banks to earn extra income

EURUSD

1.1160 still acting as a support

1.1200 heavy as a resistance

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring tomorrow

May point lower as we had an inverted hammer on weekly chart

And DXY found support above 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

50 DMA at 111.23 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

EURAUD 

Looking to buy pullbacks as favorite scenario for now...

Weekly Commodity - Full article link

Tough week for commodities, crude, industrial metals, soybeans down, corn and wheat traders still hesitant

Data

ECB’s Nowotny (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann

Tue

GE: Flash CPI

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

Fed’s Brainard

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening higher

GBP volatile on Manchester bomb attack

Merkel’s comments about weak EUR were more preparation ahead of today’s visit of Trump

As well as preparation for Sep elections as Germans like strong EUR (DEM) while don’t mind to kick a bit ECB

Trump acting as a mediator Muslim states, Israel and Iran

Trump’s budget – to cut gov spending like healthcare and social programs (USD 3.6 trln over 10 yrs)

Trump still caught in Russian scandal

Russian cyber attacks via Android targeted banks

Equities

Boeing taking on Bombardier on experience from Airbus

Swiss watch makers facing declines in sales

Noble down 28%, halted, downgrade and facing bankruptcy

M&As hitting new highs between US and EU companies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37%

Greek debt relief not yet but likely going to July payment on IMF request

Would face German pre-election opposition

Greek 2-yr yield to 5.25% from around 9.50% in Feb

DXY staying very weak

EURUSD

Yesterday’s/overnight move higher likely coming from new demand and short covering, Merkel and more bullish view of EZ assets

Overall EURUSD is well overdone

Critical 1.1300 may attract speculators

But EURUSD may even check the levels like 1.1314 (76.4% Fibo of May 2016-Jan 2017 move)

USDJPY

Not much volatility overnight after initial JPY strength on Manchester attack

Bids seem sitting below 111.00

Offers may be about 111.35

55 DMA at 111.34 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as resistance

Gold daily

Resitance 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude oil

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting on Thursday

9-month cut extension already priced in

Trump’s proposal to sell half of strategic reserves (344 mln barrels)

What would add daily 100k barrels of new oil over the next 10 years

Upcoming

Last day of Eurogroup meeting

Fed’s Kashkari speaking (1300 GMT)

Hammond, Schauble, Guindos speaking (1430 GMT)

ECB’ Coeure speaking (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Harker speaking (2100 GMT)

Wed – FOMC Minutes

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (rescheduled)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 12, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia on a safe side on geopolitical risks, JPY, gold and VIX up

Europe opening higher

Kuroda – BoJ easing for price stability and not to target FX levels

Will keep going with easing to reach 2% inflation

BoJ reduced 3-5 yr bond purchases

Xi sent a message to Trump to solve the situation in North Korea in a peaceful way

Japan joining US in North Korea muscle flexing on the sea

US Sec Tillerson in Russia today

Merkel against EZ mutual debt to distinguish herself in election year from Schulz

Greece and Portugal would need to address debt sustainability anyway

China PPI at 7.6% but serious real estate problem

Economy way overleveraged (80% of GDP)

Will be negatively impacted by deleveraging that would need to take place at certain point in time anyway

VIX was up to 15.88% despite S&P 500 just slightly lower

BHP Billiton rejected any attempts to change the corporate strategy from Elliott Management side

Siemens to partner with Bombardier in train production to better position themselves against Chinese CRRC Corp

United shares hit by passenger issue due to overbooking

It seems like a very common practise by airliners to overbook and then offer you an incentive or compensation for not flying or flying another day

Dialog Semiconductor may lose deal with Apple

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% (dropped to 2.28%) - should be temporary on geopolitical risks (Trump acting as a policeman)

While June rate hike is priced at around 60%

If the rate drops further below the 2.30% level it would express the level of doubt of bond market about Fed raising rates sooner than later

10-yr Bund yield at 0.20%

GE-FR spread rising to 74.50 bps again on the back of leftist Menchelon gaining momentum

His surprise win may be a risk event reflected in USDJPY decline

FX options

EURUSD 1m RR dropped sharply, trading below Brexit vote levels

Traders favoring put options (getting more expensive than calls)

Market was buying strikes around French elections heavily yesterday

In a protection move

1w vols dropping sharply yesterday

EURUSD spot flat

EURUSD 1m vols spiking to 12.47 from below 9.00 level

12.50 vols is equal to a spot move of 76 pips a day

EURUSD 1m 25 RR heavily favoring puts

But…

EURUSD 1w vols trading at historically low levels and keep moving lower

What may be due to implied vols underperforming

And market using 1w strikes to finance strikes covering French elections (Apr 23/May 7)

USDJPY – with ease through 110.00

Sitting at descending trendline

But close to 200 DMA at 108.70

Are the bears strong enough to take it below 200 DMA?

Similar picture as for EURUSD

1m vols spiking to 12.48 from above 11.00

1m 25 RR dropping sharply following spot and favoring puts

Liquidity to disappear quickly as we get closer to Easter holidays

Shouldn’t experience any change unless we really have a huge event this week

Than we can see sharp moves either way

6m vols trading very cheap compared to risk events as French & German elections, North Korea, Syria are

Data

UK: Labour Market Report to stay resilient

Kaplan (Fed) speaking at 1400 GMT

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening lower

Brexit – May visiting Scotland to offer more powers

Ahead of Scottish parliament vote on second independence referendum tomorrow

Wake up call for Trump trade after Obamacare repeal vote being pulled off (for the time being)

Risk of other reforms being delayed unless Republicans deliver very quickly

Trump to sign another batch of executive orders on Tuesday to support oil, coal and natural gas industries

Rumours about Trump giving the NATO bill of USD 374 bln to Merkel

Merkel’s party scored win in a local elections

Doubt about Trump trade to have wider implications for US stocks

As equity markets are forward looking and may discount the possibility of lower growth

Financials to feel the pain

S&P 500 – support at 2300 and 2250

DAX – resistance 12 200, former support at 12 100/000 now acting as a resistance

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% (important 1.30% level)

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

COT (Mar 21)

Institutional investors staying on sidelines, participation very low across commodity sector

USD longs up by 11%

EUR shorts down by 20%

WTI long reduction continued, shorts up

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting confused the market

No extension, review later

Brent support at USD 50

Breaking USD 49.22 opens the door to Nov low at USD 43.58

Gold – resistance at 1258 (200 DMA)

DXY – H+S getting firmer foot, 200 DMA at 98.56

USDJPY – next support at 109.50 and 108.24 (200 DMA)

Check also 200 and 55 WMA

BoJ – easy monetary policy to stay

EURUSD – 1.0850 broken this morning

High from Dec 8 at 1.0873

200 DMA at 1.0880

Descending trendline around this level too

But still can get a touch above 1.0900 level (1.0910/25)

ECB – if the market attention shifts to macro from political uncertainty (Macron and Merkel doing better), ECB would likely need to pursue a less dovish policy

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – no negative surprise expected

EZ:  Private Household Sector Loans – expected slightly higher

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed after last week

EU markets opening lower

G20 take away:

Free trade short of support

Mnuchin to correct imbalances – but the simple message to US is: “Consume less, Save more”

End of globalization trends? Or end of US on globalization map?

Merkel and Abe showed strong support for free trade on Sunday (after G20)

G20 outcome is negative for stocks

FOMC feelings still present in the market

Positive on EU stocks (if French elections positive) but higher EUR is a risk

US stocks negative view, may be playing with put options going to Q2

Deutsche Bank to issue news shares worth of EUR bln as a part of strategy shift

Swiss Re to focus more on tailor made solutions to generate more profits out of the deals

Tesla raised USD 1.2 bln to fund its activities, especially Model 3 and battery production

The proof that investors are still interested to participate at Tesla story via shares or convertible notes

Sinopec close to buying refinery from Chevron in South Africa (USD 1 bln)

Bombardier still struggling to handle the deal with Toronto Transportation Agency worth of CAD 770 mln

Oil – speculative shorts double while longs were cut (COT report)

May be pointing to new weakening cycle in oil as US shale production keeps rising

Critical levels: WTI USD 51.15 and Brent USD 48

Gold – also experienced net long positioning cut by almost the half (COT report) going to FOMC last week

Risk to upside move higher on weaker USD, geopolitical risks and huge demand from India

Levels: 1238 (61.8% Fibo), then targeting last high at 1263

USD close to key support levels, trading below 100 DMA

DXY 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), H+S, descending support line around 98.90

Few Fed speakers this week with Yellen (Thu) can clarify the FOMC stance
Important event for USD will be Obamacare repeal vote on Thursday
If passed, likely USD supportive - a sign of Trump having support for his further policies

EURUSD not clearly ready to break 1.0800/50 on political risks ahead of French elections

But market keeps pricing out the risk of Le Pen win despite her advances in the polls

Security question back on the table after shooting at the airport in Paris

10-yr Trys yield at 2.49%, failed to break clearly 2.60% level again

Back to 2.30%-2.50/60% range

Bund yields rising at short end while longer end is unchanged

10 bps rise in EZ rates by Jan 2018 is already priced in

Visco (ECB) – rising rates and terminating QE can be closely linked

Data

EZ: Labour Cost Index – expected to go higher

US: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – expected to go higher

France – election debate tonight

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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