Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher but correcting

Kuroda sees 2% inflation in 2018

To keep the short term rate target at -0.1%

And 10-yr Japan bond yield at 0%

UK’s employers having hard times to recruit foreign workers

Fed’s Bullard having concern over weaker growth and inflation data in Q1

Alex Weber from UBS (former Bundesbank head):

Brexit negative for Europe, more volatility to come

ECB likely to remove some easing wording in June

And announce taper in Sep

Equities

Akzo Nobel rejected the PPG Industries take over bid again

UK’s energy supplier Centrica not very happy with warm weather and low commodity prices

As they bite into the margins

Home Capital suspended dividend, burnt 1.6 bln out of 2.0 bln of line of credit as deposit flee away

Industry veterans added to the Board

Suncor looking at new oil sands project in Alberta (Canada)

ISS pushing shareholders of PrivateBancorp to reject takeover offer from CIBC

Earnings

Commerzbank reported higher operating income, proof that raising rates benefit banks

Walt Disney expecting better results

Valeant investors more focussed on asset sales than earnings

Others reporting: Allergan, Duke Energy, Nvidia, Electronic Arts, SunPower,

VIX touching the 9.77 level, lowest level since 1993

Market sees very little risk in the near future

Will not last long, what is going to be the trigger?

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% with real yields at 2 month high of 0.51%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.42% - ECB’s June language adjustment and beginning of taper in Sep getting priced in

Yield likely to move to 0.50% attacking the recent highs

FR-GE spread stuck at 42 bps (after Macron victory), stabilized here

What is still above 20-30 bps historic levels but market is waiting for June Parliamentary elections

EURCHF, USDCHF – weaker CHF on higher yields

And money flows leaving safe heavens

To watch SNB sight deposits stats – to stabilize or fall?

USDJPY – on the way to 115.00 after clearing Ichimoku

Next resistance 113.76 (76.4% Fibo)

Risk on, US yields and tax reform progress crucial

Commodities

Oil very indecisive as OPEC/non-OPEC cut may extend to 2018

But slowing demand and rapidly rising production in US temper the cut impact

Gold playing within 1200/50 range

USD and US yields not helping

Options market back to neutral

Specs long cut, real money no change

Data

US: Small Business Optimism Index to slow a bit

US: JOLTS to slow a bit

Fed's Kashkari (1300 GMT), George (1540 GMT), Rosengren (1700 GMT) and Kaplan (2015 GMT) speaking

G7 finance ministers meeting in Italy this week

Discussing: trade, financial institutions, fighting inequality and tax crime

Upcoming

Wed – ECB’s Draghi and Fed’s Rosengren, Kashkari speaking

Thu – Fed's Dudley speaking

Fri – US CPI and Fed's Evans speaking

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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