June 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

The Russian dust around Trump is settling down

And we go back to work to crunch through hard data and policy execution

Softer Brexit talk and EU is opening the door for UK to stay

Equities

Renault-Nissan surprised investors with specially created vehicle for undisclosed bonuses for top management

A shadow of unclarity surrounding Banco Popular fall down

Verizon-Yahoo deal done, Mayer is a history

GM taking it seriously about electric autonomy cars

Apple issuing USD 1 bln of special bonds in a support of green projects

As Trump backs away from Paris climate agreement

…a nice action with a bit of branding building

Postponed US banking reform to postpone global initiatives

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Markets have experienced recently some USD buying from leverage names against EUR and CHF

While selling from real money going to FOMC

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo), 96.90 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500?

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Critical resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

IMF’s Lagarde speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Constancio speaking (0815 GMT)

FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference) in the light of inflation development

Economic projections to be released

As well as details on balance sheet reduction (USD 4.5 trln) are expected

…all of that in the light of today’s US CPI release

Do not forget that US economy usually doing better in H2

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

May 30, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian stocks with cautious on Greece and Italy

China, Hong Kong closed on account of public holiday

Europe opening lower

Greece readying for not paying EUR 7 bln installment if bail out agreement/haircut not reached

Some banks in Italy and Portugal still facing issues

Macron met with Putin in Paris

Draghi is please by improving economy but stimulus/extra low rates to stay

Weidmann said that ultra-loose policy still appropriate

Equities

Akzo Nobel’s rejection of the offer from PPG Industries (EUR 25 bln) blessed by court

Clouds mounting over Canadian banks (Home Capital & real estate) as well as Australian banks (Chinese capital controls not boding well for Aussie real estate)

US equities printing new highs and volatility down putting global equities to positive light

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30%

EURUSD

Under pressure from Greece, potential snap elections in Italy, mess around UK and dovish Draghi

IT to introduce a new election threshold for parties (5%+)

What in turn will reduce number of parties elected to 4 from current 10+

Greek debt not to be included to QE program from ECB anytime soon

Nor Greece financing themselves in the markets

1.1140/55 range acting as resistance

If we close below the 1.1000 in sight

If we break than the 1.0840 will likely be the next

1.1000 – growing importance 

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

1.0978 (50.0% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring today

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

Stops likely below 110.85 level, bids can show up on a break

Large options (USD 2 bln) with strikes below 111.00 expiring today

200 DMA at 110.15 – a pretty strong support…

Data

GE: Flash CPI m/m expected at -0.1% and y/y expected at 1.6% vs 2.0% prior

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

ECB’s Liikanen (1015 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1700 GMT)

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More