Short recap
Europe opened lower
Brexit bill approved without any amendments –
victory for May
Not to be invoked before Mar 27
FTSE pushed to retest the highs
14 mln Americans to lose medicare coverage is a
bit bitter pill for Trump and his administration to swallow
Merkel to meet Trump on Friday instead of today due to
flight cancellation (NY area bad weather conditions)
Intel buying Mobileye (USD 15.3 bln) to enter the
field of autonome driving with direct competition of Nvidia and Qualcomm
Building a one place to do get all, so car makers can get
all what they need in driverless technology and equipment
Mylan settled with Roche to produce a biosimilar
version of breast cancer drug
Vista Equity Partners buying DH Corp (CAD 4.8 bln)
to bet on fintech future
Morgan Stanley taking wealth management more
digital and hiring tech specialist to train advisors
Blackstone to set up EU headquarters in Luxembourg
US cyclicals reversed yesterday and VIX dropped,
proving we are in a bullish trend going to FOMC
EUR – a nice correction of Friday move in many
crosses
But let’s wait for FOMC and market reaction
Thursday to be a “D” day (decision day) for
EURUSD and its direction
USD – getting muscles ahead of FOMC
FX options
Vols keep falling with Implied still above
Realized
Despite risk events like Dutch elections and FOMC
Once these events are off the table, expecting further
drop in vols
Looking further to French election vols on election days
decline in line with overall market
Seeing the vols cheap considering that Le Pen is still
strong part of the presidential race
May be vols pricing is derived from current market
sentiments? It doesn’t really make sense.
GBP vols no reaction to Brexit bill approval
Just spot dropped to 1.2123 from around 1.2200
Vols in line with the market heading lower
Trys and Bund yields higher (2.62% and 0.48%
respectively)
Peripheral spreads unchanged, waiting for Dutch
elections tomorrow
GE-FR spread steady at 61 bps, to watch reaction to Dutch
elections results
Oil still second guessing on how big and
sustainable the supply overhang is
WTI and Brent oversold, resistance 50.60
and 53.30 respectively
US shale production rising
Gold range bound
Levels: 1177, 1193 and 1210, 1221
Data
GE: ZEW Economic Survey – expecting higher
EZ: Industrial Production – expecting higher
US: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – to keep positive
This week is busy:
Mar 13-14 – US budget draft to show first details of
Trumps stimulus plan
Mar 15 – FOMC (25 bps hike expected)
Mar 15 – Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000
GMT, first exit polls to start right after)
Mar 15 – US debt ceiling deadline
Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)
Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not
behaving in a normal way)
Mar 16 – BoE meeting
Mar 17 – Merkel meeting Trump
Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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