Short recap
Europe higher
Markets need to digest the move and get ready for ECB and Trump policies (tax, Obamacare)
FR elections 2nd round – Macron/Le Pen
Prediction Macron winning over Le Pen 60/40 (seems
to be sufficient margin not to have a nasty surprise)
Will see whether French are also as serious about
rejecting nationalism and far-right ideas as Dutch were
Would be a strong signal to the world in the light of
Trump/Brexit like efforts
US tax reform details to be revealed this week
Obamacare on the table on Wed again
South Korea joining a military drill lead by US
Fitch downgraded Italy to BBB (one grade), outlook stable
European stocks to benefit, capital flow to come
back
Positive on Value stocks and banks
British Telecom taking accounting scandal in Italy
seriously
Credit Suisse looking at capital increase
Not only banks and financial companies relocating out of
London
But also EU’s pharma regulatory office too
Valeant ready to launch psoriasis treatment,
likely in 2nd half of 2017
Canadian oil sands still facing tough times on low
prices of oil
As the capital intensive extraction is not attractive
Earnings season
This week will be busy, so let’s warm up a bit with:
Teck Resources – should benefit from rising coal
prices and expected rebound in demand for steel
T-Mobile US, Halliburton, Whirlpool,
Kimberly-Clark reporting among others
Bonds
FR elections relief reflected in higher yields
But majority of the move already priced in
GE-FR spread below 50 but still not down to normal
levels
As market sees risks of Macron gaining majority in
Parliamentary elections to support his policies
US yields – what will be the reaction if Trump
delivers?
Are EU yields going to move up as well?
10-yr Trys yield at 2.32%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% (jumped from 0.20% level)
EURUSD
Short term – relief
Long term – situation in Italy, rising spreads
FR – Parliamentary elections (majority for Macron – a big
question)
Support - 1.0840/50 – strong area with (200 DMA at 1.0836)
Resistance - 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo) on daily chart
Some sell levels coming around 1.1000
EURUSD weekly
Would like to bring to your attention that EURUSD didn’t get through the resistance (High
1999 at 1.0915) decisively
USDJPY – support 109.86 (23.6% Fibo)
Resistance 110.94 (38.2% Fibo)
DXY – below 99.26 (61.8% Fibo)
But supported by declining trendline
200 DMA at 99.00
Commodities
Gold – staying neutral under longs liquidation
Support 1272 (descending trendline)
200 DMA at 1252
Data
Kashkari (Fed) speaking at 1530 GMT
Upcoming:
Apr 27 – ECB meeting – Draghi will be in the spotlight defending the QE
continuation with taper may be around
mid-2018
Will need to talk down the
taper at an earlier stage
Would correspond to three year
cycle as Fed had
Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations
guidelines
May 7 – French presidential elections 2nd
round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)
May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting
Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary)
elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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