Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up despite cyber attack and North Korea

Europe opening higher despite more cyber attack threats

Chinese Belt and Silk Road initiative uniting Asia, Africa and EU versus Trump’s America first

ECB’s Weidmann – Macron’s win and strengthening recovery sets ECB to unwind the ultra-loose policy

But inflation needs to be more sustainable

Fed’s Evans – to start balance sheet reduction at the end of 2017 and can take 3-4 years

Low volatility – need to wait for business cycle reversal to see the volatility spiking as political or security risks are not good enough reasons

Equities

HFs, MMs and top investors to reveal their Q1 regulatory fillings of their purchases/sales of stocks

Would be very interesting reading with respect to Trump trade

Dassault Aviation looking at new contract next year

Lidl to make a footprint in US this summer

GE supporting NAFTA, to continue growth in Mexico

And double its purchases from there

Spotify to launch listing on NYSE (USD 13 bln)

AstraZeneca up on lung cancer drug trial results

Lilly confident with migraine treatment results

Home Capital planning asset sales to repay CAD 2 bln loan

CIBC got green light to buy PrivateBancorp

No more upfront bonuses from BoAML to lure the talent (end of industry practice)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

June hike probability down to around 78% from above 90%

DXY

USD stayed quite resilient despite weaker US data, yields and political mess in US

Needs better Q2 data and Washington to deliver

Otherwise the 1.1022 (FR election high will be in focus)

Resistance 99.26 (Fibo 61.8%), 99.18 (200 DMA), 99.08 (10 DMA)

EURUSD

EUR net specs turned long 1^st time since May 2014

EZ data and Merkel’s advance supportive

Had bit of consolidation above 200 DMA at 1.0824

Selling area may be around 1.0950/75 ahead of rising trendline at 1.0982

Interest to buy likely towards 1.0830/40

61.8% Fibo at 1.0933 acting as resistance

10 DMA at 1.0918

USDJPY

Resistance 113.76 (76.4% Fibo)

Offers likely around 113.50 and towards 114.00

Support at 113.20 (10 DMA), 112.97 (100 DMA) and 112.68 (61.8% Fibo)

Gold

Was on the way toward 1200 but North Korea, weaker US data and unpredictability of Trump stopped the move

COT report – no selling/increase of shorts just longs liquidation

Resistance at 1245 (200 DMA), 1255 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 1230 (50% Fibo & 10 DMA)), 1228 (100 DMA) and 1204 (38.2% Fibo)

Oil

Russia, Saudis supporting 9-month cut deal extension

Oil run on short-covering only

Floating storage down by 1/3

Chinese eying oil and gas from US

Chinese steel production at record high (to benefit from rising prices) while demand flat

Despite gov attempts to curb production

Upcoming

Speakers:

Nouy (ECB), Dombret (Buba) 1050 GMT

Praet (ECB) 1145 GMT

Angeloni (ECB) 1645 GMT

Tue

ECB’s Nowotny, Coeure speaking

Thu

ECB’s Mersh speaking

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri

ECB’s Constancio speaking

Fe’s Bullard speaking

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 78%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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