Showing posts with label US trys. Show all posts
Showing posts with label US trys. Show all posts

Wednesday, 22 February 2017

Feb 22, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets on positive note
EU to open higher
BoJ planning to be more transparent with announcing specific dates for bond buying operations (likely to avoid recent surprise moves)
Kuroda: ready to easy more


US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin-IMF Lagarde: IMF to evaluate FX levels and police FX policies
Fed Mester – at full employment, prices raising but don’t want to surprise the markets
US VP Pence delivered the marketing message of support for EU and NATO this weekend
But week earlier Chief Strategist Bannon had a different view
Spain is really firing at all cylinders with 2016 exports of EUR 255 bln from EUR 160 bln in 2009
Proof that the reforms they did earlier with weaker EUR work well for them

DAX to push higher behind 12 000 mark on strong data
US stocks with strong momentum but getting overvalued
Usually stocks grow with rising bond yields until 10 yr US Trys hit the levels around 3.9%
So there is still room but since US election we’ve got too high to fast

Daimler planning to build a plant near Moscow to produce Mercedes-Benz cars
It is a first major investment after announcing sanctions
Verizon agreed with Yahoo on lower takeover offer due to cyber attacks on Yahoo

EUR weakness not USD strength
Daily pivot: 1.0558
1st daily support: 1.0502
2nd daily support: 1.0468
3rd daily support: 1.0412
76.4% Fibo: 1.0455, the level 1.0450/60 next strong support range
Low from 1997 at 1.0416
Then the lows of 1.0340 only

Gold weakness seen more against EUR than USD
XAUEUR printing new highs

Brent crude getting tighter as we get closer to potential squeeze
As calendar spreads for upcoming expiries rose substantially
What in turn can make the storing of oil outside US a losing trade

10 yr US Trys yields lower on softer PMI data yesterday but erased the loses later on
Currently at 2.45%, still below important resistance at 2.51/52%
GE-FR spread hitting 78 bps again on Le Pen

Data

GE: Ifo Business Climate Survey – to confirm the overall strength of GE economy, no big surprises expected
US: Existing Home Sales – set to surprise on positive side

FOMC Minutes – markets still not taking the Mar 15 meeting seriously despite Yellen’s testimony from last week
Minutes can shed a bit more light on whether Fed is eyeing to raise rates in March

Fed Powell speaking today, as he is a possible successor of Yellen
It is worth to watch him as he may provide additional clues on March hike amid strong figures from US


Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Wednesday, 8 February 2017

Feb 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets lower on uncertainity about Trump pro-growth policies
CN – property stocks enjoyed rally as may not face such headwinds as expected before
EU markets mixed after positive start
US 10-yr bond yield below 55 DMA what may be seen bit dovish in the short term; correcting to 2.10/15% levels? Currently at 2.40%
Bund 10-yr bond yield at 0.35%
French presidential campaign is full of typical local issues, pressuring EUR


Volkswagen US to invest USD 2 bln in green infrastructure in US (part of the emission settlement)
S&P 500 aiming for 2300, if broken no further resistance soon in sight
DAX 11 400/450 support range making some question marks
2017 allocation of stocks based on valuations while taking into account political risks in EZ: 50% EU stocks ex-UK and 50% JP stocks

Oil – API inventories skyrocketed to 14.4 mln barrels of stock (2nd highest on record)
Today’s EIA report to be watched, market is expecting a rise of 2.5 mln
Gold in demand on EZ and US; support at 1220 but needs to overcome 1236 (triple top) on the way to 1250 (50 Fibo)

CNY-CNH spread narrowing
Abe-Trump meeting this weekend – downside risk for USDJPY
Decision about 2nd Scottish referendum in two weeks (speculation)
FOMC March hike at 25%
Yellen may surprise on hawkish side in Semi-annual testimony next Wednesday as market has very low expectations

JP capital flow data to be checked tonight as Japanesse are not only selling US Trys but have also huge holdings in EU bonds
Selling of US Trys from both JP and CN side supporting USD

USD – looking firm broadly
Commodity currencies – USD and weaker oil prospects putting pressure on

EURUSD
Is trend changing? Broke out of uptrend channel on 4-hour chart.
1.0620 – rising support trendline
1.0600 – 55 DMA
1.0525/00 – 61.8% Fibo
Formation of reverse H+S formation (1.0515)

Peripheral spreads still at elevated levels; Greece and France making headlines
Small spillover to equity markets but nothing serious yet; the red alert would be further significant rise in 2-/3-yr Portugees bond yields
Belgium issued 40-yr bonds yesterday


Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom