Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Oil was heavily hit by strong rise in US inventories and products amid OPEC efforts to cut production/supply

According to Comey’s prepared statement Trump asked him to drop an investigation of Flynn

But nothing new what would surprise markets

Markets getting ready for ECB, Comey, UK elections and Qatar/N. Korea mess

Canada to boost defence spending as US is less reliable

I like this one too as many countries used to take US defence umbrella for cheap money and are not happy with Trump now

Equities

Banco Popular rescue scheme can be use for Italian banks as well

Delphi Automotive partnering with Transdev Group in the field of shuffle service

Apple working to shorten repair times

BlackBerry out with car computer system

Goldman Sachs to increase deposit rates

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo) holding

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Recouped the losses after inflation downgrade leak yesterday

As market still believes in hawkish ECB

Resistance at 1.1284, then 1.1300

Offers towards 1.1300 (option barrier), likely lots of stops above

Support at 1.1230 (10 DMA), then 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Expiring options at 1.1200 (EUR 1.7 bln)

Tomorrow we have heavy expiries both below and above 1.1300

USDJPY

110.00 important with heavy option expiries tomorrow too

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Resistance at 110.44 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD 

Still holding well despite upcoming Brexit talks

1.2974 in focus followed by 1.3046

With stops sitting above 1.3050 and 1.3100

Support at 1.2802 (50 DMA), then 1.2768

Stops sitting below these levels

Should see a relief rally after Conservative win

But to fade later as we refocus on Brexit talks

EURGBP

0.8786 and 0.8850 may be in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1300, then at 1308

Support at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Upcoming Data/Events

G20 meeting

ECB meeting – getting grow but where is the inflation?

Draghi being alone but inflation data from EZ, US and JP suggest ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

QE exit likely touched a bit with no precise dates

New staff predictions for 2017-19 to be released

Overall, Draghi will have top dovish performance while bit of admitting of a small shift

Sep meeting to be critical with respect to forward guidance

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1400 GMT)

Prepared remarks for semi-official hearing  link

'I need loyalty, I expect loyalty'

"I didn't move, speak, or change my facial expression in any way during the awkward silence that followed."

If Comey doesn’t reveal anything new at the hearing, markets should take it as a risk on and USD to benefit

Overall little impact on markets

UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

Not the UK elections count but Brexit talks

2100 GMT -  Exit polls

2200 GMT – First districts counted

02-0400 GMT – decisive amount of districts counted

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but correcting

US & UK closed today on account of public holidays, some Asian countries as well

N. Korea playing with fire again

ZAR – Zuma still alive

Europe on its won after G7 and Merkel/Trump meeting

Tensions between US & EU mounting, nothing to change in the near term

Thank you Mr President for your kind EU/NATO wake up call

US to ban laptops from all flights in/out to US

US facing a shortage of houses while demand stays steady

What in turn will likely push prices higher in the years to come

Fed’s Williams – don’t want to disrupt the markets, medium term inflation trend “pretty favourable”

Equities

British Airways still experiencing issues with computer system

Investment conference in NY – may have some headlines on Q2 expectations from financials

Gazprom meeting with EU antitrust chief

Bombardier with first CS300 deliveries

US techs pushing US gov to increase privacy protection

Qualcomm to pay BlackBerry USD 940 mln in royalties

Chinese real estate companies flying high…may be too high…

Aramco – after LSE, NYSE it is now turn for Canadian TSE to lure IPO listing relying on its natural resources expertize

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Quiet trading ahead of ECB and Fed June meetings

GE/EZ inflation data to show whether ECB is right with staying cautious on inflation ahead of June 8 meeting

Italy – markets will start to focus on Italy at some point

As EZ grows but Italy doesn’t

Japanese insurers like US bonds more over European papers (staying cautious)

They usually lend them to banks to earn extra income

EURUSD

1.1160 still acting as a support

1.1200 heavy as a resistance

1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

Large option EUR 2.7 bln with strike 1.1100 expiring tomorrow

May point lower as we had an inverted hammer on weekly chart

And DXY found support above 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Offers around 111.50

50 DMA at 111.23 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

EURAUD 

Looking to buy pullbacks as favorite scenario for now...

Weekly Commodity - Full article link

Tough week for commodities, crude, industrial metals, soybeans down, corn and wheat traders still hesitant

Data

ECB’s Nowotny (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann

Tue

GE: Flash CPI

US: PCE m/m expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% previous; y/y was 1.6% previously

Fed’s Brainard

Wed

EZ: Flash CPI – should move back to 0.8% level from 1.2% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure, Lautenschlaeger

Fed’s Kaplan, Williams

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia effected by China downgrade

Europe opening lower

Markets shifting focus from risk off set up to June FOMC meeting

1^st Trump budget sent to Congress, being ignored as such?

Moody’s downgraded China to A1 from AA3, outlook to stable from negative

On the back of debt burden and its implications on public finances, and slowing growth

Only 12% of debt owned by foreigners, should not send shock waves across EM

Bernanke – BoJ should coordinate fiscal spending plan with gov to reach 2% inflation

While staying debt neutral

US housing on track

Equities

Bunge declined any talks with Glencore 

FiatChrysler officially facing an emission cheating legal action

Apple and Nokia friends and in love again, Apple looking to buy more from Nokia

Or more tighter partnership coming? Health, patents, royalties…

Shell selling its stake in Canadian Natural (CAD 4.1 bln)

Cyber security demand pleasing BlackBerry

McDonald’s to face some protests about wages, unions

HP should benefit from more stability in PC market and effects of restructuring

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41%

Market getting more comfortable with June rate hike (probability of 78%, two more hikes this year probability at 43%)

As the yield in 52-week bill auction comes to 1.145%, highest since 2008

And 2-yr note at 1.316% (strong auction) highest since 2008 (May 10 high at 1.360%)

EURUSD

US yields helped USD

Still need a deeper break of 100 HMA at 1.1182

Support clinging around 1.1160 with orders sitting there

But market is looking at 1.1100 now

Market keeps speculating about ECB change of rhetoric at June 8 meeting

Despite recent speeches by officials - not open to such thoughts: QE taper first, then rate hikes

USDJPY

Offers likely above 112.00 (38.2% Fibo at 111.98 and USD 2.6 bln option with strike at 112.00 expiring today)

Ichimoku at 111.81, bids likely below 111.70

50 DMA at 111.32 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore down approx. 7% on China downgrade

While its inventories keep rising in China

Prices hitting the lows of the cycle, negatively impacting AUD as well

Crude oil

Oil remains bid but further rise is limited due to US shale and slowing China

Crucial whether the potential cut is also on export side, not just in production

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2200 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari

FOMC Minutes – to bring a bit of hawkish tone as Fed feels that Q1 data were transitory

Minutes remind market that Fed is on the watch list going to June meeting again

Focus on interpretation of inflation, taper strategy and job market (slack/no slack)

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

OPEC meeting 0800 GMT

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting 1300 GMT

OPEC Joint press conference 1500 GMT

Full schedule  link

Expect headlines as attendees arrive

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 13, 2017 - Market Update + Few thougths on Trump

Short recap

Asia lower

EU opening lower

Trump proved me wrong about non-event end of week

By the way, Trump not accusing China from currency manipulation anymore? Let’s call it a U-Turn…

Well, it is officially true from yesterday as he realized that it is him and not Chinese

Who is to be labelled as a currency manipulator when moving EURUSD to 1.0670 from below 1.0600

The move was based on his words about Fed keeping the rates low, USD getting strong and not flagging China as a currency manipulator

Also to remember that 40% of US debt is owned by foreigners

No surprise that Trump doesn’t want to mess up with them…that much

Don’t get confused by Trump’s rhetoric and focus on hard facts as Friday’s US CPI and Retail sales data are

As the stock market is closed on Good Friday, the reaction of bond market will be crucial for further direction of USD

US bonds close at noon local time

US: Headline CPI likely to edge up a bit despite lower oil but Core should stay in a focus of Fed (previous 2.2% y/y) anyway

Meanwhile Fed officials keep talking about staying on the track with rate hikes

And the start of reducing the balance sheet this year

US and Russia relations still below zero

While China is becoming a new friend of Trump especially on North Korea

A passenger of United Airlines taking the case legal

Global airliners should pay attention marketing wise

As overbooking, even legal, is a standard practice among many of them

Tesco’s corporate results above estimates as structural changes are paying off

Icahn via CVR Energy betting big on biofuels subsidies drop

Actually, started to do so before becoming an advisor to Trump

Some of Tesla’s investors pushing for adding independent directors to the Board

To balance Musk’s interests

Qualcomm paying USD 815 mln to BlackBerry over royalties

And keeps fighting Apple over chips

Volkswagen to build a new plant in US (USD 900 mln)

Bankers in Canada are doing well as CIBC is building a new HQ in Toronto for 15k employees

Earnings season

JPMorgan – expecting a raise in profit on better lending activity and activity in capital markets

Wells Fargo – expecting a small dip in profits due to legal costs

While should benefit from upcoming Trump’s easier regulation and higher interest rates

Citigroup – expecting a raise in profits as its global business is growing and higher activity in capital markets

10-yr Trys yield at 2.23%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

Data

US: Initial Jobless Claims expected higher

US: University of Michigan Sentiment Index expected lower

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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