Feb 6, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: After the support of weak dollar commodities seem to join selloff

After a supportive week of depreciating dollar commodities are getting hit by sell off in equities and overall negative sentiment in risk assets. While the dollar should have been helping commodities rise, it wasn’t entirely the case even last week and the air was filled with tension especially after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday where the Fed noted inflation is on track. The most negative impact was on the Energy sector, Grains are holding relatively well and Sugar had also a few good days as investors were probably liquidating some of their shorts.

Oil

The more aggressive central bank outlook scared investors all over the market place and made them scale back on the positions built in the last year. Oil traders joined the crowd in selling their positions although the selloff wasn’t that aggressive as in equities ahead of a series of monthly report. Tuesday we have EIA and next Monday Opec and Tuesday IEA Monthly oil reports will give us a hint how these institutions see the development of market fundamentals.

Corn

The sector of grains saw a good week after news about drought in South America (corn and soybeans) and Kansas, Oklahoma (winter wheat) made traders liquidate a huge part of their shorts. However the magnitude of short covering increased the likelihood of additional selling if negative news will not be confirmed.

Sugar

The huge short that was built up during the last year is the biggest obstacle ahead of the bears despite the negative fundamentals persist. The raw sugar #11 traded in New York could not break the 13 cents psychological support last week and this changed the sentiment into more bullish, or at least less bearish. The prices rallied recently up to 13.90 that was most probably caused by the liquidation of some of the shorts at least. We will know more before the week end.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016-2018. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

Read More

June 13, 2017 - (Trade Idea) Short GBPUSD - medium/long term, targeting new low

Hi,

 Right after UK CPI I mentioned on Twitter I took small, short position ( risking 0,15% ).

 What is my thinking ( come on great UK CPI number , why the heck you are short ? ):
 1. Highest UK CPI Since June 2013 would be great for GBP with „normal” economic growth. The thing is that we have high inflation based on weak pound and not because of the economic growth.

 2. There wont be „soft” Brexit In my opinion .

 3. Daily chart/ one of the strategy could support that view:

 4. FOMC and Yellen - dovish hike is priced in, looking for stronger dollar in a months ahead

 I gone short @1,2707 with stop 30pips above pre UK election high targeting…. Well something around 1,15/1,13 ( risking 0,15% for now ). Im ready to reopen that short ( under current mkt conditions In case of stop put risking 0,3% )

The another way could be GBPUSD PUT option expiry In late November with strike price In half way of target , for ex ample:

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

Read More

May 9, 2017 - (Chart of the Day) Gold - one month later - as expected ( XAUUSD )

Hi,
today short update to the gold analysis posted exactly one month ago here

In short, on 9th April 2017 I mentioned gold has hit potential supply zone based on weekly chart:

and we are approaching possible demand on daily ( within weekly zone :) ) available above as well as on the new chart below:

Gold ( XAUUSD ) todays daily chart:

So, where from here ?
Medium/long term we do expect further downside as shown above but near term "Dead Cat Bounce" possible ( hence, if you are short watch around for possible reversal and manage position accrodingly ).

Join Us:

FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please don't hesitate to contact Us should you have additional questions.
We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

Read More

Feb 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

After FOMC and NFPs – markets should be focusing on steps with longer term impact like Fed hiking, roll-back of Dodd-Frank regulation, intrustructure, Obamacare and tax reform than short-term vows over immigration ban

EURUSD – 1.0800/50 still in place and the same goes for DXY at 99.00/50

From technical perspective unless both levels are broken, market is looking at USD from positive side (technically) despite still broad negative outlook

Further resistance around 1.0821/75 area with 200 DMA (may be eventually tested)

USDJPY – below important 112.00/50

AUDUSD – 0.7830 is critical

The bullish USD view to be reviewed if all of the above mentioned levels are broken.

EURUSD – may be verbally supported by the criticism for example from Schauble, who is not happy with weak EUR as it is negative for productivity even though Germany enjoys huge surpluses. His verbal comments are not to last long as he also knows that monetary policy is set for the whole EZ and not just Germany.

This fact, especially in the light of situation in Italy, may not be fully priced in by the market as the still rising divergence in inflation and economic growth among EZ countries is not either. Just by looking at widening of peripheral spreads warrants that ECB will not change its policy anytime soon. There is also another risk coming from regulation of sovereign bond holdings limits for the banks, what may in turn trigger the sell off in Italian bonds. If that happens, the ECB would need to step in. One shouldn’t be surprised if EURUSD rate depends on BTP-Bund spread and moves in tandem. Actually, that would be more accurate valuation metric along with political risks in EZ that trading EUR based on German economy.

Williams (Fed) was out after NFPs on Friday confirming that March meeting is a live meeting, thus opening the door for markets to learn more from Fischer as well as Yellen’s testimony on Wednesday next week.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Feb 1, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian markets higher inspired by US session

EU markets to open higher           

Trump administration don’t like weaker EUR; will keep attacking EU, Japan, Germany and Merkel in particular

Central banks policy divergence and currency manipulation the same thing in his world of marketing

FX manipulation remarks against (GE and JP) led to risk off even in Asian markets

10-yr US Try yield slightly up around 2.47%

10-yr Bund yield flat at 0.43%

Oil invetories (API) higher offsetting OPEC cuts, trading in narrow range

Relief in EM due to lower USD; DM still in uptrend but pausing

Prospects for mining companies strong

Siemes raised earnings forecast

Roche Holding looking at revamping/selling its diabetes-care line

Apple (Q1 results) – record number of phones shipped, higher revenue, better EPS and now sitting on USD 246 bln of cash

Proved that iPhone 7 sales do well

Mobile phones market reaching plateau

To expect longer replacement cycles, more price sensitivity from consumers

EURUSD

100 DMA at 1.0796

Strong resistance at 1.0800/50 still in place

Fibo 61.8% at 1.0835

USDJPY

Support at 112.50 was broken but market respected it overnight

And traded through 113.25 (23.6% Fibo)

10 DMA at 113.88

USD Index

61.8% Fibo at 99.26 acted as a support

As well as 100 DMA at 99.50

Next level around 100

10 DMA at 100.26

76.4% Fibo at 101

XAUUSD

Respecting Fibo levels 1182 (23.6%) as support and 1219 (38.2%) as resistance

If broken to the upside, further move can be expected

Then 100 DMA at 1223

Data

EZ Manufacturing PMI to keep on growing

ADP Employment to be slightly rebound

ISM Manufacturing to keep rising

FOMC

Markets not expecting any surprise, likely to reconfirm guidance and keep status quo (reinvestment and rates within the range of 50-75bps)

If mentioning better labor market or economy doing well it may sound hawkish to the market with probability of March 15 rate hike higher (if trading volatility, look at March 16 expiry)

Market pricing in two hikes despite officials seeing three this year

Fed officials need to wait to get more clarity on Trump’s pro-growth policies

To watch Trump’s commnents on Fed

No press conference or economic projections today

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Jan 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short review

• Trump/Mexico – 20% import tax mirrors the Trump’s view of doing serious business with Mexico
• Saw some position squaring ahead of next week FOMC and NFPs

• BoJ was active within 5-10 year bond space what helped USDJPY higher; this action came after announcement that BoJ will not act within shorter maturities space
• BoJ trying to manage the yield curve (yields around 0.1% level but the effect is translated into JPY moves only and not really affecting bond yields
• Is Kuroda testing the market?

• US equities in uptrend, supported also by strong earnings
• More EU names to report next week what will keep equity markets busy
• Microsoft doing well in cloud business

• Bit of consolidation in bonds
• Italian and Portuguese bonds having hard times what may be on the account of speculation/opinion clash about QE taper from ECB
• While ECB is pushing back any talks about QE taper, bond market is already pre-positioning for such a move
• Longer maturities are reacting, pushing Italian and Portuguese yields higher (where they may eventually trade without QE)
• Bund yields also heading higher thus lowering the spread with US Treasuries (very last picture bottom right)

• Theresa May meeting Trump today; more at  link
• Trump to speak with Putin on the phone tomorrow

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Jan 26, 2017 - Market Update - FX themes

USD

• Seeing disconnect – stocks, bond yields higher but no reaction in USD
• USD seems to be Trump sensitive
• Market should realize the underlying strength of USD vs uncertainty around Trump policies
• At the moment investors prefer US equities over Treasuries what was also seen in the weak auction demand
• Very unlikely the divergence between USD and US yields to stay for very long. The 10-year yield is currently around 2.54% (monthly high), so watch closely today’s US data and next week FOMC and NFPs
• As US economy is closing output gap (companies will have more and more capital needs going on) while savings ratio is declining, we may experience new pressure to push yields higher, thus USD higher too
• It will adversely impact JPY, as lower yielding Japanese assets will be more and more out of favor of investors, who will be subsequently swapping back to USD

CNH

• PBoC making sure banks strictly control lending in Q1
• What is in a bit of contrast of recent info about relaxing margin trading rules
• USD and CNH – Trump, FX manipulation, free global trade, tensions…a lot is boiling around

GBP

• Theresa May to make official a Brexit parliament bill
• Brexit Secretary to speak out
• Weak retail sales went out almost unnoted
• May meeting Trump on Friday

EUR

• Vows around Italian Constitutional Court ruling not impacting EUR 
• 1.0700 seems to be a history for the time being

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Dec 14, 2016 - Land of Trading: Pre-FOMC Live Trading Room Edu

Hi,
it's PRE-FOMC Free Live Trading Room.
We discussed possible scenarios, expectations etc for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDSD and USDCHF.

Enjoy!

Join Us - FREE LIVE TRADING ROOM - click here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading

Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

Read More

Dec 13, 2016 - Story of the Week: Fed raising the rates by 50 bps tomorrow?

Hello mates,

So tomorrow is the big day, right? Well, still wondering what to really expect after few missteps from Yellen. Hike with dovish comments? No hike with hawkish comments? Or a surprise hike of 50 bps as the economy is growing and inflation pressures will kick in soon?

I believe we can all agree on a 25 bps hike that is already priced in by the market. The most important part will be the comments and guidance for 2017. Here, we are not likely to see dovish Yellen talking about 2-3 additional hikes next year even though Trump’s fiscal plans can support inflation expectations. We are also on the same page by saying Fed doesn’t have more or less any clear idea what to expect, what potential risks the economy might be coping with next year…etc.

What is a very strong signal proving that Fed is already behind the curve (we have expected Fed to raise rates in September) is the situation small and medium enterprises in US face. Actually, they already signal the shortage of qualified workers in some fields. As we move along, the economy is closing the output gap and the only question mark after OPEC/Non-OPEC countries agreed on crude oil production cuts is the level of capital investments. Still lacking a bit.

There is also another factor, apart from those we already discussed in The last big event in 2016 that we know about... and it is raising yields that may in turn support the banks, their profitability, improve risk models metrics and spur the lending activity to corporates as well as public.

Would you agree that it sounds like 50 bps hike tomorrow?

PS: Please keep in mind that the new US Government will likely look like a “US Inc.” sort of structure with all high profile and pro-business oriented people that will definitely push for more relaxed regulations and tax cuts.

Good luck Champs, let’s see tomorrow!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Dec 10, 2016 - Weekly Macro W50 (Chinese industrial data, FOMC, SNB, BoE rate decisions)

After the last week when all central banks acted in line with expectations investors and traders are expecting Fed to raise its benchmark rate by 25 bps as economic data keep improving and the outlook for more fiscal stimulus will increase the inflationary pressures in the coming years. We will have also SNB and BoE rate decisions during the week and both are expected to stay on hold but analysts are curious how the central bankers assess the current conditions.  Chinese investment and industrial data as well as Japanese industry data will be coming out during the week with tentative dates and times.

Monday:

It‘s going to be another “lazy Monday” with very few data. In the early morning the Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity will be released which represents practically the Service sector. The last 2 releases were at zero or slightly lower and the consensus expects a little increase in October data. The FDI in China will be release this week but we have no exact date or time. The US Federal Budget Balance will also be watched by Republicans in the light of the planned fiscal expansion in the US, mostly which is responsible for the current “Trump rally”. There are concerns that the space for increased fiscal spending will be limited due to raising interest rates in the coming years.

Tuesday:

We start the day with the quarterly index of home prices in 8 state capitals of Australia, where the analyst expect a 2% jump after the slight decline in the second quarter. This will be followed by the Chinese Industrial and Fixed Asset Investments, in both cases no change is expected as both are in kind of consolidation phase. We will start the European session with some inflation data, first will be Germany where no change is expected in both monthly and annual data, followed by the UK CPI expected to rise and UK PPI which is expected to fall. Later in the morning the German Zew Sentiment index is scheduled and it is expected to jump confirming the better economic outlook. In the afternoon US import prices may cause minor rise of volatility but the effect will be muted given the expected FOMC rate decision next day.

Wednesday:

It will be the Fed rate decision day so expect low liquidity as market is waiting for the results from the 2-day FOMC meeting. The European morning will be however, busy for pound traders as UK job data will be released. We will look at the UK Jobless Claims which is expected to decline, and the Unemployment Rate along with the Average earnings, both expected to stay unchanged. In afternoon the volatility could be increased by the US Core Retail Sales and US Core PPI, as market participants may adjust their positions after the data release ahead of the rate decision. A little later we have US industrial production and Capacity Utilization rate with minor effect expected. As the Non-OPEC countries lead by Russia agreed during the WE to follow the cartel and cut production by 600 barrels a day, the crude got some support from these news. The regular EIA Crude oil report scheduled for Wednesday afternoon may add some more momentum to the rally, but be careful as the supply glut is still a reality and as the prices rise, more and more rigs will be reopened. The last big event of the day and probably also in 2016 will be the FOMC meeting. Can we expect any bad surprise from Yellen and team? The probability of a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75% level is around 95% in other words it is widely expected. The good US data, the rise in bond yields as well as inflation expectations and a bullish stock markets, all these factors seem to be supporting the case. Please read more about the event in this article from my colleague Mr Hawk link .

Thursday

We will start early Asian session with Aussie job figures. The employment growth is slowing down since May 2016. A negative trend behind the data is the increasing share of part time employment which jumped from 31.1% to 32% in October. Therefore the stable unemployment rate at 5.6% couldn’t be considered positive in these circumstances. Hopefully the rising base material prices will help to revive the mining industry, which may help to change this negative trend. The Swiss National Bank will announce its monetary policy and key benchmark rate in the European morning at the same time with German PMI followed by the Eurozone PMI figures. Both regions experienced an increase in sentiment during the last months but no huge jump is expected. According to analysts the surprise spike in UK Retail sales was rather a one-time event and the consensus is for stabilization instead. The week pound however could give some support before the Christmas. The BoE will announce its rate decision and assessment of the economy at lunchtime. The Benchmark rate is not expected to be changed as the bank needs to keep some gun powder dry ahead of triggering the Article 50 and the start of the formal talks about the Brexit conditions. However the Monetary policy statement will tell us how the policy makers see the shape of the British economy. In the afternoon the US inflation, Jobless Claims and Philly and NY Manufacturing PMIs may increase the volatility along with Canadian Manufacturing sales, the later for the CAD crosses. A less followed but interesting housing market indicator will be release later afternoon, the NAHB housing market index which is a leading indicator of the construction sector. After a surprise jump in the summer the index is slowly declining and no change is expected ahead of Christmas.

Friday

The last day of the week will be rather boring as the market will be digesting the events of the week and waiting for next weeks‘ BoJ rate decision. The Final European CPI numbers however may move the markets in the morning. In the afternoon the US housing data will add some volatility as some leading indicators will be release, namely the Building permits and Housing starts. In both cases we saw a positive surprise in the last month however despite the overall optimism after Trump's presidential victory, the economists expect a slight decline.

Always remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

Read More

Nov 28, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview: Dollar Index (Updated)

Hi,
this is another weekly dollar update. It's even more interesting this time as bulls have to confirm breakout on weekly chart and that could be the challange taking intrtaday chart and upcoming GDP and NFP numbers into consideration.

We are still bullish medium and long term and if bulls confirm that breakout it could be just begining :)
Please check details on the charts below, enjoy:

Join Us FREE again next week - click here

US Dollar Weekly charts:

Previous updates:

DX – Weekly Update

The next two weeks is going to be very interesting from dolar traders perspective.

Our previous DX update is available here.

Free Live Trading Room - Join Us here

Risk Events:

Clinton / Trump rumors, speculations, comments

2nd November – FOMC

4th November – NFP

8th November – Election Day

Also we have to remember  we may see some profit taking / loss booking before end of the year when liquidity is still ok ( think mid/end of November ). So it’s clear that even the greatest Technical Analysis may not work because of the factors could play bigger role.

Anyway, as you can see on the chart below, we have a trading range after strong rally and we expect continuation to the upside ( yes, we are still USD bulls medium and long term as long as we are above 91/90,80 based on weekly close ).

Short term – failure around 100 level  could be good reason to Take some profits with first suport around  96 ( mid-range) and the bottom of that range as critical one.

Please check our latest recorded Live Trading Room’s where we discussed short term possibilities on USDJPY and EURUSD ( and the short term Outlook is still valid ): here and here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

Read More

Nov 6, 2016 - Madam or Mister President? What are our market expectations?

Madam or Mister President ?

We are getting closer, the heat is on and one would say that there is a lot at stake. Anyway, will see on Tuesday night…

It all starts with Clinton and Trump, carries on with majority in Senate and House of Representatives and voters’ turnaround. The race is very tight and the lower participation can be advantageous for Trump. On the other hand Clinton’s supporters see the chance to win back the Senate majority, while many Republicans have an issue even to endorse Trump.

What are our expectations?

Hillary in the Oval Office

-          More or less status quo

-          Not focussing on structural reforms

-          Likelihood of escalation of conflict with Russia (Ukraine, Crimea, NATO presence in Eastern Europe, Syria)

Market reaction in case of Clinton victory

-          Markets relieved as a first reaction and S&P 500 rallying for 2-3 days followed by a selloff

-          May have a Christmas rally with S&P 500 extending to 2120, 2176 and highs around 2194

-          But at certain point we will see the 1900 level as a part of healthy correction that is needed, may come in Jan 2017

-          Biotech and pharma under pressure

-          Supportive for USD and US yields

-          EURUSD heading towards 1.05 in the light of Dec rate hike

-          Strong selloff in JPY, CHF and EURMXN

-          USDJPY to extend to 105.00

-          NOK, CAD, BRL on a positive note, AUD negative as it is living its own problems with household spending and housing bubble

-          FOMC rising rates in Dec

-          Gold to 1250 and then to 1235

Donald in the Oval office

-          Unpredictable but it is not going to be that bad as general expectations are

-          FOMC on hold in Dec

-          Fed officials changes in 2017 – what’s Trump view of Fed’s role?

-          New fiscal stimulus

-          Trade protectionism

-          Will agree with Russia on the spheres of influence and new world order, thus risk of escalation or military conflict may to great extent vanish

-          US companies may suddenly sign interesting investment contracts in Russia what can in turn support US equities in medium term

-          Putin’s top candidate as he likes those Western leaders who create the chaos and opinion/policy division among them

-          Some US citizens leaving the country and taking up residency abroad. Like we saw last time after Bush being elected and few Americans moved to Canada.

-          Increased tensions with China in South China see as China started to build artificial islands and Philippine’s president dropped the close relationship with US in favor of stronger ties with China. All of that happening in the region where important naval merchant routes are controlled by US.

Market reaction in case of Trump victory

-          In case of a decisive win we may experience extremely high volatility and lack of liquidity across many asset classes

-          This can commence after 2:00 am GMT as the market will start to have a good indication of the potential outcome (either decisive win or still ongoing tight race)

-          Risk assets selloff as an immediate reaction

-          S&P 500 breaking through 2082 and 200 DMA, next target is a range between 1999-1991 (10% correction from the highs)

-          Buying dips into 1900 maybe 1800 levels but again, the healthy correction in stocks is needed as mentioned above

-          Biotech and pharma strongly rallying - watch the IBB (Biotech ETF)

-          Coal ETF (KOL) rallying despite the nice and steady rise in 2016

-          USDJPY with strong support at 102.80 and 100 DMA, and then looking at 100.00 and 99.00

-          EURUSD to 1.1300, then to 1.1500 as round levels

-          Weaker USD and US yields dropping in safe heaven flow; USD may weaken 3-5% but lack of liquidity can enhance it to a 5-8% one-off drop; all of that will be driven for 2-3 days by hot and smart money and then we will see USD buying again as nothing is really changing to the current FX trends

-          Gold in demand, now trading around 1300 to extend to 1350 but later come back to 1300 again; Gold vols up and Risk-Reversals trading at the levels seen during Brexit and Q1 2016 general selloff

-          Definitely, there will be lots of question marks about appropriate asset allocation. For those looking for an inspiration check out a “Trump Victory Portfolio”  link .

Should you have any questions or would like to have a chat about market positioning going to election day feel free to contact us at landoftradingATgmailDOTcom or follow our Live Market Coverage.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Oct-31, 2016 Weekly Macro W44

This is going to be a hard core central bank week, we have altogether 4 rate decisions from major central banks RBA, BoJ, FED, BoE. We will however start the week with some inflation figures from the Eurozone (Flash CPI), Canada (RMPI) and the USA (monthly PCEPI). Also don’t forget about Chinese PMIs on Tuesday and the NFP as part of the US employment report on Friday.

After the last weeks bombshell announcement of the FBI director about his bureau’s review of emails potentially related to Hillary Clinton one may wonder what else could come before the election. Last Friday FBI head, James Comey has broken the longstanding DoJ and FBI practice not to comment publicly about politically sensitive investigation within 60 days of an election. Is this a signal that we should not rely on the history that Fed never hiked rates in the year of election? Well, Wall Street is definitely in a better relationship with the Clintons than the FBI, but one could never be sure…

Below you find few comments on each day macro figures but please look at the attached Event risk calendar too as I couldn’t mention everything, eventually feel free to print it out for a quick overview during the day. You can also check out our Live Trading Room register here

This weeks Live Tradin Room schedule is here:

Tuesday: GMT 12:00 AM

Wednesday: GMT 09:00 AM

Monday:

The first day of the week will be mainly about inflation but we start the morning with German retail sales at GMT 7:00 which was mostly below expectations this year. The Eurozone Core CPI could reach 1% since March but we could see a bounce in headline CPI the last few months. Market is expecting a rise in CPI to 0.5% which we haven’t seen since June 2014. In the afternoon we will be watching overseas data, the same time is released the raw material inflation from Canada and the monthly measurement of US PCE price index (the quarterly data came out on Friday with Advance GDP showing a decline in consumption price levels in Q3). We end the day Chicago PMI.

Tuesday:

Data heavy day for almost full 24 hours, so just the most important ones... After midnight we start with the Official Chinese PMI followed by the Markit’s PMI. The expectations are rather sober with no big improvement on the radar of most of the analyst. There is no rate hike expected from RBA Rate decision as GDP is probably above the nations potential still growing at 3.3%, the house prices as increasing strongly in the last quarter especially in the Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra, the inflation picked up recently (core inflation unchanged) and Unemployment rate declined to 5.6%. The BoJ Rate decision will follow but as the last meeting showed us a change in the CBs focus to the yield curve rather than the benchmark interest, the statement and the press conference may bring some volatility if additional measures will or won’t be announced by Kuroda. Later the morning the UK Manufacturing PMI may give some support for the week GBP as the uncertainty around the Brexit amounts.  In the afternoon after Canadian GDP the US ISM manufacturing PMI will be worth to watch after surprise bounced from the sub 50 levels. In the evening the API Crude inventory report may move oil market and the oil currencies ahead of the November OPEC meeting and later kiwi traders should follow the employment figures and GDT price index from New Zealand.

Wednesday

The markets will be in digesting mode during the early trading hours as still waiting for the main course the FOMC rate decision. The Australian Building approvals and later the German Employment change may bring minor pick up in volatility. The UK Construction sector is doing better than expected after the Brexit vote, and in the morning the Purchasing managers (PMI) of the sector will give their opinion on the housing market. The expectation are lower than the previous reading but given the current momentum it could be easily much better which would support the cable. Even the focus in the afternoon is on the FOMC, the ADP employment data could increase trading activity as investors will adjust their positions. The EIA Crude inventories are the last data ahead of FOMC. And finally we will see the results of the 2 day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – rate decision. The likelihood of a November rate hike is only around 5% but it’s still there, don’t forget this. If you are a fan of conspiracy theories you probably noted the surprise Clinton investigation announcement from FBI. A rate hike at current fragile market sentiment could cause the perfect storm ahead of the US elections to give maximum support to Trump.

Thursday:

The Bank of England rate decision is supposed to be a non-event with practically no chance to hike the rates as Carney was already criticized by the MPs the BoE acted too early. However the assessment of the economy in the BoE inflation report will be more interesting 4 month after the Brexit vote. In the afternoon first part of US employment figures will be released with the jobless claims. It’s not likely we will see a positive surprise close to full employment. On the other hand q/q productivity is expected to increase after 3 negative quarters and as this is the first release it may have bigger impact. According to Fisher despite this part of the equation is uncontrollable by the Fed, it is one of the key indicators to monetary policy. We will finish the day with ISM Non/Manufacturing PMI which surprised traders last month with much better than expected figure.

Friday:

The RBA Monetary policy statement will be released after the rate decision at the end of the week together with Australian Retail Sales. The European session will be almost data free and the first notable figures will be released in the afternoon from Canada (Employment and Trade balance) at the same time as the US Employment report. While the NFP are expected to marginally increase and the Unemployment Rate to get below 5% the Labor Force Participation Rate is at 4 decade lows. The key question is if the negative trend in participation rate bottomed out this year or the downtrend will continue. The Feds broader Labor Market Condition Index released next Monday will give us a complete picture about the US Labor Market trends.

 DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t be held liable for any loss resulting from action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice.

All rights reserved ©2016 www.landoftrading.com, contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

Read More