Feb 2, 2018 - Market Update (NFPs day but a high bar for USD to rise, Trys rising but where is the USD?, Rising yields challenging stocks (dividend/higher financing), Strong EUR to weight on EU stocks soon, Italy in or out?, eBay dumping PayPal and going for Adyen, Insurers to sell cryptos theft protection)

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening mixed

Strong EUR to weigh on EU stocks soon

10-yr Trys yield above 2.75% putting pressure on stocks

As dividend yield is not as attractive as before and cost of financing for companies is getting higher

With recent rise in US yields, economic numbers and improving earnings season

Are we going to see one 50 bps hike among all three hikes expected in 2018?

Equities

Apple likely to return half of USD 285 bln of cash to shareholders

Amazon.com enjoying a record USD 2 bln profit

Royal Dutch Shell attacking Exxon Mobil position of biggest cash generator

Daimler on the spending spree for electric and autonomous vehicles this year

eBay dumping a privilege partnership with PayPal

Adding a Dutch fintech Adyen to payment service

Insurers looking at protection against cryptos thefts

Saudi Arabia in strategic talks with China, Japan and SoKo before Aramco listing

Earnings

Chevron, Exxon Mobil reporting in the light of higher oil prices. Any surprises?

Merck

A bit of reflection…

Seems like 2-yr Trys yield is giving more than dividend yield of S&P 500 stocks on average or…

Market Euphoria May Turn to Despair If 10-Year Yield Jumps to 3%  link

Is the excess money from bond markets flowing to equities or does it mean something else?

Something like valuations are extremely high?

Number of Americans thinking about stock markets being higher in one year from now hitting multidecade records:

Well, two many too bullish…

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.79% vs 2.73% yesterday (20 bps from 3.00% mark)

30-yr Trys yield above 3.00%

Yield curve keeps flattening despite recent spike in short term yields

But 10-yrs touching 3% could help USD

Credit spreads in speculative bond space have been tightening over the past years

With lots of money flowing there, higher Trys yields may reverse flows

If US yields keep rising what in turn can send volatility waves across all markets

VIX is already trading above 10, the level that acted as a resistance for quite some time

10-yr Bund yield at 0.73% vs 0.70% yesterday

More and more EZ bond yields moving above zero level

Italy in or out?

Probability of Italy leaving EZ still elevated since Constitutional vote

ECB and Bank of Italy have a problem – holding over EUR 100 bln of debt

Once ECB stops tapering, IT bonds will suffer on the back of debt to GDP ratio being higher than pre crisis

Thus sending shock waves through periphery

Luckily, majority of the public supports more EU integration

Despite immigration and EU criticism

Parliament elections (Mar 4) to be a lose call

PIMCO: The Fed is quietly trying to engineer an inflation overshoot  link

There's been a distinct shift in currency markets that explains why the US dollar is getting hammered  link

Something strange is underway in currency markets at present…

EURUSD

Markets focussed on USD weakness and potential ECB taper, now holding pretty firm

Bids sitting below 1.2490

Stops seen above 1.2540-50, if broken we can visit highs of 1.2570 and 1.2602

To watch also 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)

EUR 1.1 bln options with strikes between 1.2495-1.2500 expiring today

Important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)

Support 1.2398 (10 DMA), 1.2305 (23.6% Fibo) and descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)

USDJPY

BoJ special operations helped the cross higher

Offers seen ahead of 109.75, 110.00 and stops above

Bids may be around option expiries (USD 2.3 bln strikes 109.00-35)

Support 109.45 (10 DMA), 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows

Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Crude Oil

Crude oil - US producing 10 mln barrels a day, putting enormous pressure on OPEC

But strict adherence to production cuts by OPEC and Russia support the prices

China overtaking US as a biggest crude importer

Latest correction seems not to do any harm to long speculative positions held by funds

GS upgraded Brent forecast that should hit 82.50 level by summer

Bitcoin

Well, few accounts holding huge amounts  link

 …and 13 exchanges trading 40% of the volume:

Data/events

ECB’sCoeure (1000 MGT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1400 GMT)

US NFPs

Bar high for any surprise to support USD

Payrolls 180k exp vs 148k prior

Unemployment rate 4.1% exp vs 4.1% prior

Average earnings (m/m) +0.3% exp vs +0.3% prior

Average earnings (y/y) +2.6% exp vs +2.5% prior

Strong labour market supporting consumptions

But earnings may disappoint despite minimum wage and bonus increases

If not, market will start to speculate about quicker rate hikes this year

Fed’s Kaplan (1830 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (2030 GMT)

Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is a lawyer and not economist)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Mar 4 – Elections in Italy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 25, 2018 - Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB - just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold - make or brake the 1380, then 1484...?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel

Short recap

Asia mixed to lower

Europe opening lower

Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency

Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy

…and market took it as a future direction of US policy

In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it

Market is concerned about widening current account deficit (a problem for USD)

But bigger one is that there are still less and less international investors who like to buy Trys

IMF’s Lagarde – USD value determined by markets

Bitcoin buyers getting more ground

China to tighten control over offshore private equity fundraising

Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel from refineries (USD 1 bln of lost government revenues)

ECB today

Lots of speculations about policy shift – not expecting any change, may be some word playing in March

Recent move in EUR creating some headaches for ECB as inflation levels still low

Unlikely ECB will come up with something hawkish, we need to wait until summer

So growth and inflation have more time to surprise

Draghi to touch FX rates with dovish comments after recent rise in EUR

EUR not overvalued

S&P – strong EUR to delay tapering

EURUSD

USD still under pressure with psychological 1.2500 in sight

Likely to test important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)

Then 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)

Support from descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)

The 1.2400 may help to push some longs off, to open door towards 1.2300-90 zone

1.2166 (50.0% Fibo), then 1.2092

USDJPY

Interest in USD from importers and retail after o/n decline

Bids sitting at 108.50

Large options (USD 2.3 bln) with strike at 110.00 expiring today

Support 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows

Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Equities

Lower USD = higher global equities for time being…

As we have easier credit conditions

And profits of US companies artificially higher due to weaker USD

BofA owning more blockchain patents than peers

SEC looking into GE’s huge insurance charge

Company planning to sell USD 20 bln of assets

Goldman Sachs and Citibank shortlisted to bid for metal business of Scotiabank

EU fines Qualcomm (USD 1.2 bln)

Bombardier and Boeing to hear decision over dispute on Friday

Earnings

Reporting today: Biogen, 3M, Caterpillar, Intel (update on security issues), Western Digital, Celgene, Starbucks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.64% vs 2.62% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.56% yesterday

No boom to doom for central Europe's bonds when ECB stimulus ends  link

Gold

Facing strong resistance zone where it got rejected in 2014/16/17

Mnuchin, weak USD, inflation up, geopolitical risks supporting gold

More investors using gold as a hedge for potential spike in volatility

With HFs aggressively buying since Dec

Resistance 1375 high, 1380 (38.2% Fibo), 1484 (50.0% Fibo) both based on 2011/15 decline

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB rate decision

Jan 26 – Trump speaking in Davos (1300 GMT)

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Trump to announce an infrastructure plan but is not clear who would build the infrastructure

Because of his anti-immigration policies, may be Norwegian workers

But having no idea how many of them will come

Also to announce a new security policy moving away from fighting terrorism

And focussing on challenges from growing military strength of Russia and China (more military spending coming)

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is lawyer and not economist)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 11, 2018 - Market Update (Crytpos getting hit in SoKo, Chinese like Trys anyway, 10-yr Trys yields holds above 2.50% despite China/BoJ, USDJPY looking towards 110.00 ?, VIX above 10 but still very low, Bayer hoarding cash by selling more Covestro, Aramco seeking cheap loans ahead of IPO, PIMCO to buy more Trys on recent weakness, SNB with profit of USD 55 bln)

Short recap

Asian in red as stocks getting nervous, VIX above 10

Europe opening lower

Cryptos – SoKo preparing a trading ban, tax authorities cracking on some exchanges

China – halt of Trys buying based on wrong info (I like it as some made a nice money..)

US attacking NAFTA, opting for more protectionism

While French Macron signing nice contracts in China

Equities

Volatility still remains low but that can change quickly

As markets may get nervous at current record levels

Will get more hints from Q4 earnings season kicking off 

Earnings may be irrelevant to some extent and investors will be more interested in discussing:

US effective tax rates, CAPEX outlooks and buybacks/dividend payouts

…what about positioning ourselves in cash, gold and bonds without any equity link in 2018?

Bayer selling bigger stake in Covestro (EUR 1.5 bln) to hoard the cash

Intel may go short on security issues against its competitors

Aramco seeking cheap loans before IPO

Canada speeding up Basel rules implementation

Likely this year

PIMCO may buys some US Trys on the recent weakness

Berkshire Hathaway moving higher on Buffett’s succession moves

By adding Abel, Jain to the board

SNB with USD 55 bln profit in 2017  link 

From its USD 800 bln holdings of US/EU stocks, bonds and gold

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.53% (printing high at 2.59% yesterday)

Surprisingly staying above 2.50% level despite China denouncing halt of Trys purchases

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

Spikes in US 2-yr and 5 yr yields were translated yesterday into 10-yr Trys/Bunds as well

Chinese slowdown or hald of Trys purchases and speculation about BoJ taper were the main triggers

Investors look at US inflation linked bonds as economic growth, rising oil and commodity prices

Are likely to spur inflation

BoJ keeps bond buying unchanged despite news from yesterday 

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1962 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1994 (10 DMA), offers sitting above 1.2000

Support at 1.1915, 1.1831 (10/50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

111.71 (200 DMA) may act as a support for correction higher

112.00 again in sight but seller sitting here

Resistance at 111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 112.24 (100 DMA) and 112.37 (Ichimoku)

The potential rally should fade here as well

JP investors like US yields but unhappy with recent moves in JPY

Chinese Trys plans and BoJ potential tapering as themes fade away

BoJ hates volatility – likely to keep all under control as they proved with no change to JGB buying today

Interesting to see USDJPY not bouncing higher after China/BoJ today and higher Trys yields?

One may think that further JPY strength is to come…

Support at 111.02 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.26 and 110.83 (short specs may bail out here)

And we can see a dip to 110.14 (61.8% Fibo) with psychological 110.00 level next

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

After consolidation on rising yields higher

As the news about China slowing down/halting Trys purchases and BoJ potential tapering (resulting in stronger JPY/weaker USD) pushed gold higher

Still feels support from stocks in red and rising physical demand from China

But need a correction before moving higher again

Support at 1314 (10 DMA), then 1300 and 1290 (100 DMA)

Resistance at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Dudley (2030 GMT)

Eurogroup president speaking about future of EZ (1630 GMT)

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.

Good luck Champs!

  

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Dec 5, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit and US tax bill market movers, EU to review US tax bill and its implications, S&P 500 & DAX - what's next?, Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln), Toll Brothers facing lack of skilled labour - an issue for home builders across US)

Short recap

Asia took a break

Europe opening flat to slightly up

US tax bill refining continues as the bill moves from Senate to the House before it lands on Trump’s table

Many have changed the wording from tax reform bill to tax bill

AMT getting challenged as many companies may loose the tax break and pay the 20% alternative minimum tax

EU to assess US tax bill and its global tax implications

Brexit still not moving to phase 2 as getting stopped at Northern Irish border

CBOE launching Bitcoin futures on Dec 10 while CME on Dec 18

Equities

US stocks saw another day of out of Techs rotation

But market was overall down on a small positive long term impact of tax reform

Sanofi having hard time in Philippines

Thyssenkrupp-Tata Steel merger facing unions

Dialog Semiconductor not happy with Apple developing its own battery saving chips

Apple to start to paying back taxes to Ireland in Q1 2018 (EUR 13 bln)

Toll Brothers to report better results on the back of strong job market but facing lack of skilled labour

That may not be the best thing for luxury home builder

S&P 500 daily – a correction back to 2475 level means down 7.1%

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX daily – range bound with 13 047 (100 DMA) support 

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

EURUSD

US yields keep showing direction for USD

As USD bulls may get frustrated with inability to decisively break 2.40% yield in 10-yr Trys

Resistance 1.1870 (10 DMA), 1.1886 (61.8%), breaking 1.1961 high would be seen as a new direction setter

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline), 1.1794 (100 DMA), 1.1758 (50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Not able to break above 113.00 level

Resistance at 112.82 (50 DMA), 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 111.89 (38.2% Fibo), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.57 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1281-86 (50/100 DMA)

Support from rising trendline holds, then 1267 (200 DMA) and 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

EU FinMin meeting

ECB’s Constancio

US Senate banking committee votes on next Fed chair Powell

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus

NoKo threating with new missile test again

But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being)

Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path

HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading

And may move over to strategies of flattening of US yield curve and USD weakness next year

Brexit – rumours about preliminary exit bill agreement (UK agreed to pay much of EU bill, likely EUR 50 bln)

GBP on a stronger foot today

Senate vote on tax bill already on Thursday

EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, new black and grey list coming

Britain, Malta and Netherlands used for aggressive tax planning

Bitcoin above 10k (up 940% in 2017)

Not threatening the world economy by its seize but creating a psychological bubble

Equities

Goldman Sachs interested in metals trading arm of Scotiabank (USD 1 bln)

Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount

Royal Dutch Shell partnering with car producers in installing super-fast chargers in Europe

Oil majors moving aggressively to shale 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

It's Time to Get Out of Emerging Asian Currencies: LGT  link  

Slower growth in China, U.S. tax reform are both set to weigh

Higher interest rates are already largely priced in

EURUSD

Resistance 1.1886 (61.8%)

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo/10 DMA). 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline)

USDJPY

Support 111.02 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 111.58 (100 DMA), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.80 (10 DMA), 111.89 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting some support from NoKo provocations but needs more JPY strength to move higher

Dowside is limited on geopolitical and economic risks

Not able to break 1300 (Fibo, psychological resistance)

Next resistance 1306, 1313, 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 1288 (10 DM), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1283-85 (50/100 DMA)

Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus  link

Data/events

OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Is Russia on the same page? As many independent producers may not necessarily obey the cuts

What about Iraq, Libya, Nigeria as they keep pumping

US inventories up while shale oil production rising

ECB’s Constancio (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen hearing (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1745 GMT)

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 22, 2017 - Market Update (US rate curve flattening on corporate and pension fund investors interest, Hong Kong above 30 000, US not comfortable with free and open internet, USDJPY condemned to 112.00-50 range ahead of US/JP holidays, Enel going digital, RBC too big to fail since yesterday, If early elections in Germany not before end of Q1 2018)

Short recap

Asian in green

Europe opening higher

If new elections in Germany, not before end of Q1 2018

Thus prolonging the uncertainty but EUR is indifferent, as it was the case with some other coalition talks in EU

US to take down the free and open internet

Giving the service providers possibility to choose what content the users will access

Lacklustre trading ahead of US and JP holidays

Equities

Hong Kong index breaching 30 000 on continuation of risk and strong earnings

Enel increasing spending on digital networks to ready for end user intelligent solutions

RBC on a global list of too big to fail, thus will need to hold extra capital (+1%)

Rio Tinto, Wealth Minerals and GSR Capital to bid for SQM that is a lithium producer

EU digital tax still an issue for some EU states

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

US yield curve keeps flattening what is a very interesting development we have pointed to recently

Very likely it is related to US tax reform implications as pension funds load the bonds due to:

Corporates increasing the funding of pension schemes before next year further rise in US rates

And pension fund investors also making contributions as they may lose some tax exemptions next year with new reform in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.34%

Situation in Turkey not helping sovereign and bank bonds

As investors prefer safer assets

EURUSD

German politics a focus

Support around 1.1710, 1.1734 (10 DMA)

Resistance range 1.1755/60/65 where are 55 & 100 DMA, 38.2% Fibo and yesterday’s high

USDJPY

Lower US yields and yield flattening pushing JPY higher

Decent offers seen above 112.50 with expiring options

112.44 (100 HMA) 112.47 (55 DMA)

Bids sitting at 112.00 with USD 1.4 bln option expiring with strike at this level

Support also from 100 & 200 DMA (around 111.70 level) and 111.90 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

JP Labour Thanksgiving day

Fri

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 15, 2017 - Market Update (Xi to visit NoKo one day, Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?, Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story, Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order?, Volkswagen and police/tax authorities again, Loxo partnering with Bayer, US yield curve flattening despite 2-yr yield hitting a 9-yr high, EURUSD - forget about H&S, looking at 1.1900, USDJPY to dip below 112.00)

Short recap

Asia in red but BoJ active in ETF buying

Europe opening lower

Special envoy from China heading to NoKo on Nov 17

Central bankers talking about an end of easy money

Mohammed El-Erian a new Fed vice-chair?

Risk bubbles rising across EMs:

Military taking over in Zimbabwe, where is Mugabe?

Venezuela defaulting, South Africa to be downgraded

Equities

Stocks not comfortable with no new catalyst, GE story

And getting nervous about upcoming Fed tightening

Airbus – a new USD 40 bln order for 400 planes coming?

Volkswagen having issues with police and tax authorities

Loxo Oncology entering into collaboration with Bayer (USD 1.6 bln)

Biotech firms focusing on using bacteria in cancer research

Bombardier signing a USD 1.1 bln deal with EgyptAir

Earnings

Cisco – expecting decline in revenue from traditional products

Target

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

2-yr Notes touched a 9-yr high but the yield curve keeps flattening

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39%

EURUSD

Huge H&S reversal is over after breaking 1.1700

Decisive break of 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Also broke 1.1736 (100 DMA) 1.1785 (50 DMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Next resistance Oct highs and 1.1886 (61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Resistance at 113.65 (10 DMA), 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo),

Support at 112.47 (50 DMA)

Closing below 23.6% Fibo will expose 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), 111.76 (200 DMA) and 111.72 (100 DMA)

Data/events

EU General Affairs Council meeting

Fed’s Evans (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (2110 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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