Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 14, 2017 - Market Update (Trump maturing, ECB not in a rush to hike, DAX at crucial 12 500, Back to Trump trade?, EURUSD at support zone 1.1 870/80, Amazon.com to sell sombreros, Munich Re hit by hurricanes, Oracle in the cloud)

Short recap

Asian down on weaker Chinese data

Europe opening mixed

Trump getting more experienced (less tweeting)

And starting meeting people (like Rep/Dem leaders) to move things forward

ECB to keep a steady hand on easy policy as inflation stays very low

Chinese steel mills production reaching record highs

Bitcoin on a weak foot after JPMorgan’s Dimon fraud comment

Historically, it is not the high valuations that trigger the stock market correction but the change in macro

Thus China and credit markets holding the key

Equities

EU short of EUR 5.4 bln from taxes from Google and Facebook

DAX at 12 500 – a crucial for further development

Apple likely to face delays in iPhone X shipping going to holiday season

Amazon.com to build a huge warehouse in Mexico

Kaspersky on the way out of US gov networks

Volkswagen along with FAW, SAIC recalling 4.9 mln cars

Munich Re hit by hurricanes

Oracle reporting today, market to check how successful their cloud business is. Expecting rise in revenue.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - seems comfortable within the 2.10-30 range

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

DXY

Can we expect a return of Trump trade? Tax reform, infrastructure and capital repatriation

All pointing to stronger economy and higher USD…

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 92.16 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 93.36 (50 DMA) and strong one at 92.74 (200 WMA)

EURUSD

Sitting at strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next support 1.1752 (50 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1931 (10 DMA), 1.1940 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Trading above 110.00

Support at 110.40 (76.4% Fibo),

Resistance at 110.55 (50 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo), 111.23 (Ichimoku cloud), 111.15 (100 DMA)

Resistance comes also from rising trendline forming triangle

Gold

Gold lower on higher USD despite stocks correcting

Support around 1300 but market may be comfortable at 1315 as well

Resistance at 1333 (10 DMA)      

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (1530 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1600 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening highe but correcting

Risk on or Risk off now?

ECB sees higher grow, lower inflation (2017-19), risks balanced

No further rate cuts but also no change in policy, no taper talk at all

Trump survived Comey’s testimony as nothing was revealed

North Korea playing with fire again

US labor market keeps shrinking

Equities

ECB’s very dovish stance to further support EZ equities (rates lower for longer)

ECB boosting peripheral assets on the back of some bubbles in the core

Especially peripheral financials to benefit

Deutsche Bank can not share information about Trump’s financial dealings/ties with Russia

Credit Suisse to say thank you 1.5k employees in London

Julius Bear hit by soccer bribery issue

EU banking to face consolidation as the weaker institutions (due to negative ECB rates)

Will be target by their stronger peers (case of Santander acquiring Banco Popular)

UK financials to suffer on elections outcome/Brexit talks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - slowly moving higher

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25% - slowly moving lower on very dovish ECB, no rush to tighten policy at all

UK yields moving higher on after election mess

DXY

Lately seen too much dovishness about FOMC what may change with Comey off the table

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Very dovish ECB to keep pressure on EUR

But had no impact on EUR yesterday likely due to capital flows to EU assets

Mega-option expiries today to anchor-bracket (according to Reuters):

1.1100 E8.7 bln, 1.1150-60 2.64 bln, 1.1185 1 bln, 1.1200-10 1.56 bln

Also 1.1220-25 1.4 bln, 1.1250 4.07 bln, 1.1270-75 714 mln, 1.1300 1.17 bln

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1227 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Likely to focus on 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo) ahead of 1.1062 (50% Fibo) and 1.1009/00 level (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy resistance at 110.47 (200 DMA), 110.50 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Decent support from options around 110.00 area (USD 2.38 bln expiring)

GBPUSD

Upside limited on election results and Brexit talks

Brexit talks are messy but after elections will be very messy

Putting further pressure along with a massive current account deficit on GBP

In other words 1.2500 and even 1.2000 can be reached easily

Support at 1.2688 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2618 (100 DMA) and 1.2576 (200 DMA)

…but getting the soft Brexit will be GBP positive

EURGBP

0.8850 in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (61.8% Fibo) and descending trendline

Upcoming Data/Events

ECB’s Linde (1030 GMT)

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – China PPI correlated to PCE, lower number having any implications for Fed next week?

Lower PPI means reflation trade is fading away

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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