Friday 22 September 2017

Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth
Europe opening lower
Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific
PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo



Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets
While easyJet should get some too
Stronger EUR weighting on DAX
12 500 to be tested again
B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet
Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range
If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)
Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)
Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline
Still not able to detach from current congestion zone
After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD
Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains
Strong support zone 1.1870/80
Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)
Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)
Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)
Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)
With more above 1.2000 level that can play in
Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71
Offers starting at 112.50 on
Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross
Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)
Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline
All critical levels for further medium term direction
Bullish while above daily demand...


Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)
ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)
Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)
ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)
Fed’s George (1330 GMT)
Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexita major speech from May (1900 GMT)
Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?
Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access
EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections
How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress
Oct 22 – Japanese elections
Oct 26 ECB


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom


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