Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government

No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty

Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause

What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore

Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not willing to resign yesterday

But a new deal is on the table with full immunity

Goldman Sachs sees Fed hiking 4 times in 2018

Lloyd Blankefein was heard that many would like to have confirming Brexit vote

Excessive risk taking at record level

‘Irrational Exuberance’ May Rule the Roost in Stock Markets  link

BAML fund-manager survey shows risk taking at all-time high

Investors see stocks as overvalued but bullish on growth

Equities

Volkswagen taking it seriously and investing EUR 23 bln in development

Apple not on time with smart speaker HomePod for Christmas

Tesla short of cash soon to ask for new money

To keep financing trucks, roadster and acceleration of production

Norway sovereign wealth fund to remove oil and gas companies

From its benchmark and cut their holdings

S&P 500

Resistance 2581 (10 DMA), 2589, 2597-2600

Support 2554 (23.6% Fibo), 2549, 2544

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD

Support area 1.1675-1700, 1.1710 (200 HMA),1.1714 (high from Aug 2015), 1.1747 (100 DMA)

Resistance 1.1759 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1771 (50 DMA), 1.1778 (55 HMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

US tax reform, Germany and USD in play

Top range 1306 level needs to be taken off decisively

In order to break medium-term resistance

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1306

Support 1287 (50 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1280 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Nowotny (1145 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1400 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1600 GMT)

EU Council meeting

CEE bankers conference

Wed

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

Fri

US bond trading close, stocks open halfday

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on risk off as plenty of things going on this week

Europe opening lower

US election scandal going more public with DoJ accusing contractor about leaking top-secret documents

PIMCO neutral on Italy after offloading Italian bonds

Italy not leaving EZ but probability of things going wrong is high

UK readying for elections on Thursday amid security issues

China suggesting qualified firms to issue Panda bonds (denominated in CNY, issued by non-China issuer but sold in China)

China looking at expanding futures trading to foreigners

Equities

Lufthansa seeing higher traffic from US and Asia

Knock, knock…Siri from Apple coming to you home via HomePod speaker

GM-Greenlight Capital stock battle keeps going

Blackstone likes Scandinavia and wants to buy Finnish real estate Sponda (USD 2 bln)

GTCR and Carlyle working on buying Albany Molecular Research

Apple and Amazon to join Foxconn to buy chip business from Toshiba

In general, Europe and Japan still look attractive (valuation & flow)

Insurers like Swiss Life, followed by banks can benefit from hiking cycle

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

DXY

Higher liquidity support the increase in FX reserves

Rising USD liquidity and excess of USD funding well supporting move to yielding assets despite Fed gradual tightening

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

US yields not supporting USD

Market keeps respecting 1.1300

But bids weakening towards 1.1284

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Below 110.00 and 200 DMA (if we close below, the 108.12 is next)

Support 109.50-60 range (76.4% Fibo)

USD 1.3 bln options sitting between 108.90-109.00

In general, Japanese corporates find the range of 108.00-110.00 as a budget rate zone

What may add additional strength to JPY

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More