Jan 15, 2018 - Market Update (USD hit by non-US monetary tightening, No Bitcoin ETFs/mutual funds (for now), Bulls at extreme levels, SoftBank to list mobile biz, EUR longs up again, EURUSD to consolidate today, Gold to attack 2017 high at 1357, facing 1357-1375 range resistance)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Trumps racist comments are dangerous in general

And can also change the behaviour of the public

Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and economy

FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms

USD hit by markets pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries

Bitcoin ETF Fast Track Derailed by SEC Liquidity, Safety Worries  link

Applications for 12 ETFs and 2 mutual funds withdrawn from SEC approval process

On liquidity and security concerns

Equities

SoftBank Group to list mobile phone biz (USD 18 bln)

This step should cement the ambitions as a global investor in tech

Lactalis to compensate the victims of Salmonella

BlackRock with USD 6 trln of AUM

Earnings

Markets ready for strong figures only

BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger, ASML reporting

Bulls are at extreme levels

Markets with 15 months of gains

Equity funds experiencing record inflows

Source: Yardeni Research

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.55% vs 2.55% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.52% on Friday

2-yr Trys yield at 2.00% after a recent sharp rise

2-yr Bund yield at -0.62%

ECB’s Weidmann calling for exact QE end date

ECB still with QE despite economy getting stronger

Bill Gross (Janus): Bonds are in a bear market  link

“The 1.45% for tens can legitimately be cited as the end of the bond bull market which began at 15.8% in 1981 and provided prescient portfolio managers with the potential for huge capital gains and the moniker of “total return”

COT report

EUR longs at 145k vs 128k week before

JPY shorts at 126k vs 122k week before

GBP longs at 26k vs 16k week before

EURUSD

ECB Minutes after taste still in the market

Draghi is definitely happy as higher EUR and yields tighten monetary conditions

What in turn gives him more time to keep negative rates despite EZ economy is getting stronger 

EUR is also supported by GE coalition talks and Merkel/Macron calls for EZ reforms

Bullish outside week is completed

Consolidation should be the name of the game today

Support at 1.2100, 1.2088, 1.2078 (23.6% Fibo), 1.2046 (10 DMA), 1.2041 (2012 low)

Resistance at 1.2227 (50% Fibo of 2014/15 move), 1.2330 (descending trendline – 2008/2011/2014 and 2008 low)

But serious one at 1.2644 (61.8% Fibo)

For Elliott Waves lovers the 1.2288 is critical 

Looking from short side at EUR

EURUSD daily

Focus on Fibo levels and yellow zones

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD weekly

Focus on two red circles (highs and descending trendlines)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Specs added 110k lots recently on weaker USD, geopolitical risks

Resistance at 1357 (2017 high) and 1357-75 range

Support at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Should be quite day 

US closed on account of Martin Luther King Jr day

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower

Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln

But overall friendly remarks on both sides

China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial companies

Trump not meeting Putin at APEC conference

Brexit – Northern Ireland part of single market and customs union according to EU internal papers

China to cut corporate tax rates for high tech companies

Equities

Toshiba planning to raise JPY 600 bln from new shares in a hunt for cash to avoid delisting

Burberry looking more at high-end offering but at what cost?

PSA Group moving fast with pushing its own technology to Opel

Cameco cutting 10% of its uranium production on low prices

Is it a turning point in uranium market after it has lost almost 70% since Fukushima (2011) ?

Allianz’s profit down 17%

Keystone XL having commercial back up

Monsanto not linked to cancer

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34% vs 2.33% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.33% yesterday

Very significant jump in yields in Europe yesterday

DXY

US tax reform a question mark

Weekly close important as we sit above important levels

A continuation of inverted H&S or not?

Support 94.19 (23.6% Fibo), 94.05 (Aug 2016 low), 93.77 (100 DMA)

Resistance 94.62 (10 DMA), 96.03 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market is quiet waiting for a new inspiration from next week’s US data

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA)

And below 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Expiring options (EUR 2.4 bln) with strikes between 1.1500/50

USDJPY

Quiet trading after not being able to break 114.50 few days ago on lacking US yield support

If we see the cross back above 114.00/25 you may consider rally continuation
But is has to be supported by US data next week

Otherwise if no pick up in 10-yr Trys yields towards 2.40% and above the return to 113.00 to come

Resistance at 113.76 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Staying above 112.60 may help bulls (from Thu):

Oil

What’s driving the market?

Saudi Arabia and supply cuts vs strong demand

Rally from USD 42 to 57 was supported by shutdowns due to hurricanes and ongoing Saudi Arabia upheaval

Seems to be exhausted and well overdone

Growing US production will be proved by data soon

On top of that not abiding with production cuts from OPEC members to be visible too

Likely to push prices of oil lower going to year end

At the moment traders are hesitant to take profits as they are not sure

How the situation in Saudi Arabia will develop

Likely to take profits after few days of pausing

Brent/WTI spread should stay around USD 6 on transport constrains between Cushing and Gulf coast

Brent daily

Support levels 62.00 than 60.00

Source: Saxo Bank 

WTI daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (1260 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 4, 2017 - Market Update (UN meeting on North Korea, Little risk in FX world warranted, EU/China economies to cool down, FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer, Merger completed, new DowDuPont is alive, Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit, Bund yields may go again to zero, EURUSD - Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance, USDJPY - ceiling at 110.00, Gold - eying 1375)

Short recap

Asian in red on safe haven flow

Europe opening lower

US/CA Labor Day holiday today

UN Security Council to meet on North Korea

US Secretary of Defence Mattis joining Trump in his rhetoric (not a good sign)

Little risk in FX world warranted

Despite North Korean likely not to escalate situation further as it hit the ceiling with hydrogen bomb test (50 KT)

Oil supplies to North Korea likely to be cut off

Brexit no deal outcome at 25% probability

Moscovici (EU) – strong EUR not a threat to EZ firms

Trump looking to withdraw from free trade deal with South Korea

Another strong hurricane Irma creating

EU/China economies to cool down too after US growth eased

Equities

US stocks printed new highs on Fri

Volkswagen recalling 1.8 mln vehicles in China

FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer

Legend Hodlings buying 90% of Banque Internationale a Luxembourg (EUR 1.5 bln)

Dow and DuPont merger completed (USD 130 bln)

Historically, Sep not a perfect month for S&P 500 with most of the time ending in red

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.16% - finally picking up

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit either from dovish ECB or escalation of tensions

As Bunds may hit again zero level yield range

COT report as of last Tue

EUR longs at 87k vs 88k week before – after hitting the high in EURUSD, spot moving lower could put additional pressure on long speculative positions and spark selling

JPY shorts at 69k vs 74k week before – USDJPY hitting the lows, some relief for JPY shorts may be in sight

GBP shorts at 52k vs 46k week before

Overall net short USD positions making new records since 2013

EURUSD

EUR may act as a safe haven currency, small bias higher

Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance

USD did well going to close despite a bit weaker NFPs

As the ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area

Resistance at 1.1910, 1.1980, 1.2071

Support at 1.1885 (55 DMA), 1.1878 (10 DMA), 1.1845 (23.6% Fibo)

Real yield differentials pointing to significantly overvalued EUR

USDJPY

Gap down after nuclear test recapped back later

110.00 a ceiling due to risks

Expiring option (USD 800 mln) at 110.00 to cap the flow as well

Gold

Well supported by general safe haven flows

On the back of North Korea, US-Russia diplomatic war, US debate over tax and debt ceiling

Topped by dovish Fed

Resistance in sight at 1375

Strong support at 1300/10

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (0740 GMT)

BRICS’ summit starting today in China

Tue

Kashkari (Fed)

Kaplan (Fed)

Brainard (Fed)

Thu

Mester (Fed)

Dudley (Fed)

ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low inflation vs still rising EUR

ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

Expecting dovish ECB with no hawkish surprise at all

Draghi to talk down EUR

Let’s get ready for low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)

Economic growth not impacted by strong EUR yet

Fri

Harker (Fed)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 7, 2017 - Market Update (DXY up from strong support, EURUSD correction shallow to 1.1700/1650, A look towards 1.2000 still on the cards, World CBs to reassess how aggressively hawkish they are, S&P sees Fed on hold ,3 hikes in 2018, Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling, US stock options - already positioning for increased volatility, Glencore looking to buy into Rio Tinto's assets, UBS private banking with USD 2 trln of AUM)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

New sanctions against North Korea (supported by China/Russia as well)

UK ready to pay EUR 40 bln Brexit bill

S&P sees Fed on hold this year with 3 hikes in 2018

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting today/tomorrow

Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling

Equities

Glencore stretching muscles and increasing offer (USD 2.7 bln) for Rio Tinto’s assets

Deutsche Bank dropping from the list of world’s top 15 private banks

Hit by heavy bill of USD 14 bln for MBS mis-selling

UBS staying at the top with more than USD 2 trln of AUM

Weak USD to keep supporting global stocks further

Elliott disclosed 6% stake in NXP Semiconductors

Likely to make NXP sale to Qualcomm more expensive (USD 38 bln)

US stock options – stocks at highs, volatility at lows…and some investors are already positioning for increased volatility

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27% vs 2.23% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47% vs 0.45% on Friday

Higher yields are looming but market complacent

Central banks likely to be very cautious not to disturb the market

Funds stay long bonds, not looking to exit trades anytime soon

Recalling 2013 – still far from 3% yields, so visible action from funds yet

Vanguard and BlackRock not happy with bond traders being too complacent link 

Inflation in the U.S. bound to accelerate in matter of months

Bond traders are too complacent and TIPS ‘incredibly cheap’

COT report as of last Tue:

EUR longs at 83k vs 91k previously, cut by 8k

JPY shorts at 112k vs 121k previously, cut by 9k

GBP shorts at 29k vs 26k previously, increased by 3k

DXY

Jumped up from strong support zone (92.64 and 91.88)

NFPs may be seen as an excuse for correction in USD but US yields crucial

Fed expectations pivotal for further USD direction as well as policy direction of other central banks

As their more hawkish stance made their currencies to strengthen a lot versus USD

They are likely to reassess “how aggressively” they want to be hawkish

But it should support USD in a short term only unless political, tax and fiscal mess in US disappears

Have we already seen the top at EURUSD 1.1910 and bottom at USDJPY 109.84?

EURUSD

Shorts pared back some gains as US yields showed no change on market expectations of Fed policy

Support 1.1776 (200 WMA, last week closing below), 1.1772 (10 DMA)

Followed by 1.1723 (23.6% Fibo)

But the critical is the yield spread between Trys/Bunds

Not expecting a deep correction, likely 1.1700/1650 at this stage

Look towards 1.2000 still on the cards

USDJPY

Staying within a tight range

Bids placed from 110.00 up

Resistance 110.78 (10 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo) and Ichimoku turning line at 111.02

110.14 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline as support

Data/events

Mon

Fed’s Bullard (1545 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1725 GMT)

Thu

Fed’s Duddley (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Kaplan (1340 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1530 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 29 US debt ceiling deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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July 12, 2017 - Market Update (All about Yellen today, Merkel flying EUR high, Siemens chasing their turbines, Chinese banks another opportunity, Trump and Russia (but Junior this time), 10-yr Bund yields jumping above 0.60% mark)

Short recap

Europe opening higher

Trump Jr – Russia blow here but markets focus on Yellen

Trump administration constantly distracted, not focussing on proper work

Gary Cohn Trump’s candidate to replace Yellen

Fed’s Mester likes taper sooner rather than later

Merkel putting pressure on ECB to raise rates

JPM’s Dimon – taper can caught people by surprise

Chinese media speculations – PBOC should widen the 2% CNY daily trading band

Funds kept selling USDCNH overnight

Quarels as a Trump Fed nominee getting first oppose comments

Due to his ties to Wall Street and possibility that oversight of huge banks would be softer

Moody’s – Lack of clarity in Brexit making question marks around UK’s credibility

Equities

BlackRock - Investors need to take more risk  link

US asset managers underallocated EM stocks 

Total to invest USD 3.5 bln in Qatar offshore oil

Siemens chasing their turbines in Crimea even legally

Chinese banks underperformed their global peers but offer lower valuations and decent yields

Regulators were out saying the risk is in control

Snap hit by downgrade from Morgan Stanley (underwriter) on slower ad development

Instagram is biting in to Snap’s largest user base among young

Bonds

BoJ increased bond purchases in 3-5 yr space

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% but 5-yr/10-yr may experience some correction after recent move higher (support around 2.30%)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.61% - sharp jump from around 0.55% after yesterday’s comments from Merkel

EURUSD

Merkel, Trump Jr. – Russia thing, dovish Fed comments behind the move

1.1450 broken, on the way to 1.1580 as short term longs were open

Likely looking at 1.1615 as long as 10 DMA (1.1407) not clearly broken on dips

Next the 1.1714 and 1.1750 may come

Bear in mind that any rally above 1.1600 is way overstretched and likely not lasting

All about Yellen today, watch especially her remarks on inflation

But market is very very complacent about Fed moving…

USDJPY

Resistance at 114.36 high

Stops at 113.50 hit but dip demand helped

Support at 113.30 (10 DMA), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo), descending trendline

Dips below 113.00 may be a good point to renter longs

But 112.00 level can serve as a stop level

Expiring options USD 1.3 bln between 113/114.00

Market is very long USDJPY but short gamma

And 50/100/200 DMA at 111.89/78/66 very close

Again all about Yellen today

Gold

Support at 1214 low held, no more technical selling through

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

If broken along with 16.20 in Silver we can see more short covering

But Yellen today again…

Data/Events

Yellen testifying (1400 GMT) before Congress Committees today/tomorrow (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

Likely to confirm the continuation of normalization

Do financial conditions continue to ease

Job market and inflation

Balance sheet reduction – suspension of reinvestment policy coming announcement in Sep ?

Another rate hike in Dec ? Currently priced at 49%

ECB’s Linde 

ECB’ Dalhau, Dombret

Fed Beige Book (1800 GMT)

Fed’s George (1815 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 7, 2017 - Market Update (Good NFPs may trigger collapse in bonds/stocks, EZ stocks under pressure from higher yields/EUR, BoJ buying and buying, ECB not respecting allocation key, thus pushing core yields/EUR higher, EUR - make it through 1.1500 or ? Berkhsire to buy Oncor, Celgene/BeiGene to cooperate)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

Flash crash in Silver

Trump to meet with Putin

Very good US NFPs numbers may trigger collapse in bonds and stocks

As the risk of rising rates further will all implications will be higher

ECB Minutes with some tightening of financial conditions

Central Banks’ Reversals Signal the End of One Era and the Beginning of Another (Bridgewater CIO)  link

Equities

EZ stocks under pressure from higher rates and stronger EUR (like capital/debt intensive utilities)

But banks/financials doing well

In general financials (higher profits), health care (defensive play), consumer staples and techs (low debt) generally doing better

China pushing GM, Mercedes and Volkswagen to recall vehicles with air bags produced by Takata

Volvo selling 25% stake in Deutz

Berkshire to buy Oncor (utility)

Microsoft to cut 30k jobs (mostly outside US)

Dish Network and Amazon.com in talks about partnership

Knee surgery done by robots? Top medical techs working on…

Axis Capital to buy Lloyd’s Novae

EU to fine Merck, GE and Canon

Celgene and BeiGene agree on tumor cancer treatment cooperation

Bonds

BoJ to purchase an unlimited amount of 10-yr bonds at 0.11% yield

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.33% yesterday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.57% vs 0.47% yesterday morning

Broke an important 0.50% level, next is 0.60% and 1.00%

Looks like the move higher in core EZ bond yields comes from ECB

As it has not purchased assets fully in line with allocation key

What in turn supports EUR

Higher gov bond yields represent a risk for bonds with long durations and EM as such

EURUSD

Bounced off the pivot 1.1300 (post election high)

As mentioned on Monday getting way over 1.1600 not sustainable

Trading right below strong resistance from descending trendline and 1.1445, then 1.1615 high

If above resistances are broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

In order to look at 1.1580 need get through 1.1450

On the top of very strong resistance range

1.1400, 1.1344 (38.2% hourly Fibo) and 10 DMA at 1.1365 providing some support

But bear in mind that financing long EURUSD positions is pretty expensive swap wise

USDJPY

Pretty resilient in risk off mood

Broke descending trendline

Resistance at 114.36 high

Support at 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Getting support from geopolitical risks

Support at 1214 low

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

Data/Events

US NFPs

Payrolls 179k exp vs 138k prior

Unemployment rate 4.3% exp vs 4.3% prior

Earnings 0.3% exp vs 0.2% prior

Participation …. vs 62.7% prior

Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting

To discuss terrorism, free trade and climate

Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them

Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 30, 2017 - Market Update (Markets getting ahead of themselves, US Q1 GDP revised up, S&P - Fed to start taper in Sep, Bunds-Trys spread at 183 bps, Raiffeisen Bank having difficulties with IPO, Small techs smashed on low liquidity)

Short recap

Asian down on risk off flows from EU/US

Europe opening mixed

This week we witness lots of end of month, quarter and half a year flows/positions squaring

Market is ahead of itself based on reactions, valuations, low vols, complacency

China manufacturing up on good production/new orders

US Q1 GDP revised up on consumer spending

Well, never underestimate the consumption power of Americans as history proves

According to S&P Fed will start taper in Sep and rise rates one more time in 2017

Higher German inflation did not help USD yesterday

US trade deficit report not published yet as it is under review at White House

Can be released anytime…or tweeted…

Equities

Deutsche Bank defending bank privacy in Trump’s case

Raiffeisen Bank International having difficulties with IPO of its 15% stake in Polish lender

As profitability is questioned

Fox bidding for Sky to face hurdles

Gabriel Resources asking USD 4.4 bln in damages from Romania

Icahn backing a break up of AIG

Good results of stress tests opens the door for buybacks and dividend rises at US banks

What in turn pushes their shares higher

Techs on a roller coaster but NASDAQ likely to target 5300 area

Small techs smashed as they were first to go on their low liquidity

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - reaching the Jan/Mar highs around 50 bps

Central banks in sort of harmony

But market is pricing the ECB rate hike well well in 2018

Bund-Trys spread keeps narrowing to 183 bps

EURUSD

Right below strong resistance from descending trendline and 1.1495 & 1.1615

If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

Decent offers seen towards and above 1.1450

Still well bid on market perception of hawkish ECB, thus downside limited

But big option expiries around 1.1350-75 area (EUR 1.7 bln)

Support at 1.1400 and from options

USDJPY

Corrected despite higher US yields but yield spread as a driving force to stay

On position squaring flows, crosses were heavy too

In general the underlying theme is up, choppy, consolidating

But central banks comments still in the air

Offers ranging 112.00/15

Bids from 111.50

Support 111.93/79 (Ichimoku), 111.78 (100 DMA), 111.76 (10 DMA)  and then 111.53/50 (50 DMA)

Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Not doing well on a sell off in bonds and JPY

Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and ascending trendline, then 1250 (100 DMA) and 1254 (50 DMA)

Support at 1234 (76.4% Fibo), 1233 (200 DMA)

Data/Events

ECB’s Lautenschlager (1130 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny

ECB’s Coeure (1200 GMT)

US trade deficit report can be released anytime

...or tweeted…

July 5 – FOMC minutes

July 6 – ECB Minutes

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – Trump meeting Putin

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia – saw some profit taking after risk on week

Europe opening lower

ECB no change in monetary policy

Draghi had a good showing, inflation not a worry, economy doing better

(5-yr forward inflation swaps above 1.6% indicating ECB still undershooting its inflation target)

Taper and rate hikes not a question of a foreseeable future

What may put additional pressure on EURUSD and close the Sunday’s gap up

New healthcare vote delayed again

Trump’s new trade war target is South Korea (kind of blindness in between the North Korea tensions…)

US and China say that North Korea situation can escalate if talks fail

Equities

Stocks too rich or too cheap?

Hard to say as the enormous QE stimulus is still here and rates are not at normal levels

S&P 500 trades at 18 times 2018 forward PE

S&P/TSX at 18 times 2018 PE

Deutsche Bank surprised but revenues are falling and trading is short of US peers performance

UBS benefited from trading and investment banking activities

Earnings season

Alphabet (mobile ads and YouTube), Amazon (well positioned), Intel, Microsoft, Ford doing very well

Exxon – market is looking at substantial rise in profits on cost cutting

Chevron – expecting company to by back to profit on refining and cost cutting

Others to report today: Colgate-Palmolive, General Motors, Goodyear, Imperial Oil (CA), Cameco (CA)

Bonds

Yields lower on risk off

Europe’s corps in high demand, credit spreads very low

May be the time to look elsewhere for better yield

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30% (pretty nice jump in Bunds after Draghi yesterday)

EURUSD

Looking whether closing the week below Sunday’s open at 1.0889 (Reuters)

Support at 1.0850; 1.0834 (200 DMA) and 1.0820 (50% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo) and around 1.0950 (upper channel line)

1999 high at 1.0915

Options expiries and US GDP to drive the market

Data

EZ: Flash CPI – 1.8% exp. vs 1.5% prior; Core 1.0% exp. vs 0.7% prior

US: Advance GDP – expecting slowdown with 1.2% exp. vs 2.1% prior, but it is not alarming as it is a historical pattern. Important to watch business investments but here, we can eventually blame lacking Trump policies that create hesitation about capital investments

US: Chicago PMI

US: Uni of Michigan Sentiment index – looking higher

Fed speakers: Brainard (1715 GMT) and Harker (1830 GMT)

Upcoming

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 4, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia on a safe side

Europe opening higher

Risk off ongoing (Russia, FR elections (GE-FR spread widens to 67 bps) – USDJPY declined and we see preference for liquidity

EURUSD not picking up as peripheral spreads are widening due to ECB lowering bond purchases

Fed’s Dudley not comfortable with student debt that may have a negative effect on spending and ability to buy houses

S&P 500 support at 2142 (50 DMA) and 2350 level

Hyundai and Kia decreased the production in their China based factories on the back of rising competition from local automakers and tensions between both countries

Imagination Technologies down 70% yesterday as Apple decided to end the cooperation

Danone buying US based WhiteWave Foods that produces organic food

Mylan facing a new class action lawsuit

Canadian SNC-Lavalin interested in UK based WS Atkins (GBP 2.1 bln)

Linde considering to use all means to get the merger with Praxair through

Akzo Nobel still not satisfied with PPGproposal

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.28%

2-yr Bunds yield back to -0.80%

Gold higher as USD gets a bit weaker, drop in stocks and interest in bonds

Market positioning ahead of Trump-Xi meeting and after Russia bomb attack

Data

EU to make a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

ECB Draghi speaking

Daniel Tarullo (Tue at 2030 GMT)

EZ: Retail sales expecting to head slightly higher

US: Factory orders to rebound after small dip in March

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 23, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly up

EU opening higher despite risk off sentiment still present in the markets and not a very great start of Chinese earnings season (Tescent disappointed)

US session showed hesitation with rebound in equities

As only techs experience a correction higher while financials, energy and materials ended the day on a lower note

Banking lobbying groups do not see any revamp of Dodd-Frank soon, may take the initiative and prepare their own proposals

Donation scandal in Japan

Sentiment in financials (banks) can be effected by the last round of LTRO from ECB

Consensus looks at allocating EUR 110 bln (last time it was EUR 62 bln)

Two more regional banks in Italy ready for a bail out what may not be welcome by EU regulators

Westinghouse Electric (Toshiba US) likely facing bankruptcy

GE linking top execs bonuses to cost cutting success

Enbridge looking to cut 1000 infrastructure positions after taking over Spectra Energy

S&P 500 below 2350

Nikkei 225 still flirting with 19 000, the 18 700 is the next

VIX (12.66) and stronger JPY not proving the rebound yet

Bit of fundamental view: Fed on the path of rising rates, political risks in Washington, not clear signs of what Trump really wants to do, risk of wave of protectionism, debt burden is huge around the world, population in developed markets getting older, overall there is an excess of production capacities

Gold taking a break before 1250 (50 % Fibo) and 1258 (200 DMA)

At the moment 200 DMA needs to be broken for further buyers to get attracted

Iron ore keeps falling

Supported by China tightening monetary conditions to address excessive leverage

Also refocussing away from infrastructure and property investments what in turn has negative effects on commodities (iron ore including)

OPEC meeting in Kuwait this weekend

10-yrs Trys yield at 2.41%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.41% - lower after indecision from previous sessions as the higher rates expectations and QE coming to an end still present in the market

Lower USD making monetary conditions more accommodative

Data

UK: Retail Sales to accelerate

EZ: Consumer Confidence Indicator higher print is expected

Fed speakers: Yellen (1245 GMT), Kashkari, Kaplan

ECB speakers: Lautenschlaeger (1500 GMT)

US House voting on Obamacare repeal – expected at 1500 GMT but still not specific time is set. The leaders need to make sure they will have sufficient votes before actually, calling for a vote

Super important event in terms of whether Trump can/is able to deliver or not

Or in case of yes vote how it will turn out with respect to different lobby groups around Republican party

As the US political system is not complicated enough, Trump needs to win the votes of sceptical members of the House Freedom Caucus

Should you have any questions feel free to contact us anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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