Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 5, 2017 - Market Update (Very quiet in the markets…, North Korea making a storm?, Cryptos hit with Bitcoin & Ethereum down, JPY not what it used to be against Gold, EURUSD ready to correct if Draghi impresses, United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins, Air Berlin keeps flying for now)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening flat to slightly higher

Very quiet in the markets…

North Korea still an issue, preparing another launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch place

BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not taking any actions against NoKo

China the key player even if US, SoKo and JP decide to act

US pushing for new UN sanctions likely targeting Chinese banks doing biz with NoKo

Crypto currencies had a tough day yesterday after China banning the new issue (ICOs)

Bitcoin down 16%, likely more regulations coming

Hurricane Irma getting stronger

Fed Dec hike at 40%

JPY losing its safe haven status to gold on North Korea risks  link

Equities

More defensive stance warranted like higher exposure to utilities, telecom, health care, consumer staples or gold miners

Europe – more neutral after EUR rise, US more positive on USD decline

Volkswagen not selling Ducati (EUR 1.5 bln), at least for now

Air Berlin keeps flying with the help of GE government

United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins (USD 30 bln) – a nice shift in the aerospace supplier space

That is still fragmented, premium is above 7% (still low) what may attract other bidders

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.13% vs 2.16% yesterday

Yields to go lower, to be watched after US holiday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.38% yesterday

EURUSD

Slight bid tone on NoKo tensions

If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area

And eventually correct further to 1.1400/1500 level

As a part of 4^th wave correction and Draghi impressing the market

Daily/Monthly RSI showing significant divergences

Monthly 23.6% Fibo at 1.1661, 38.2% Fibo at 1.1409

But overall little action before ECB

If Draghi doesn’t deliver 1.1950 is the next…

Resistance at 1.1950, 1.1980, 1.2070

Support at 1.1892 (55 HMA), 1.1892 (10 DMA), 1.1845 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

110.00 as a ceiling due to risks holds

Bias slightly lower with bids at 109.20/00

Institutionals may be buying on downside

Key support at 108.26

JPY/Gold – JPY is not a safe haven as it used to be

As it lags the rally in gold by huge margin

But only in current NoKo tensions when rockets fly over Japan

Gold

Entire metal space seems to be overbought

Resistance in sight at 1375

Strong support at 1300/10

Data/events

BRICS’ summit in China

Fed’s Brainard (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1630 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2300 GMT)

Thu

Mester (Fed)

Dudley (Fed)

ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low inflation vs still rising EUR

ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

Expecting dovish ECB with no hawkish surprise at all

Draghi to talk down EUR, if he delivers spot can move to 1.15/1600 territory

If not, the 1.1950 if the next…

Let’s get ready for low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)

Economic growth not impacted by strong EUR yet

Fri

Fed’s Harker

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Norway is getting out of everything but dollars, euros and pounds  link

To read as it is an interesting shift in Norwegian wealth fund strategy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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