Showing posts with label #Avis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Avis. Show all posts

Thursday, 6 July 2017

July 6, 2017 - Market Update (Trump in Poland, EUR - lower global use on high hedging cost, EURUSD - focus on Minutes & 1.1300 with lots of expiring options, USDZAR - central bank to be nationalized, Gold supported by geopolitical risks, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total courting Qatar gas, Volvo - green from 2019, Nokia sharing patents with Xiaomi)

Short recap

Asia mostly in red
Europe opening higher
Trump in Poland to reassure about commitment to Eastern Europe through gas and military support
Before meeting with Putin
Also to outline the future relationship with Europe as such


FOMC Minutes show a split and no timing on balance sheet reduction
US ready to use force against North Korea but looking for a diplomatic solution
EUR experienced lower use as international currency and as a funding currency last year
Due to high hedging cost against its decline using swaps

Equities

ExxonMobil, Shell, Total getting closer to win the big share of a Qatar gas pie despite local tensions
Vantiv buying Worldpay for USD 10 bln
Marc Cohodes known for his short selling activities now targets Exchange Income after taking on Valeant and Home Capital previously
Stating that rich dividend is not supported
Novo Nordisk having some safety issues with insulin pens in Canada
Nokia signing a patent deal with Xiaomi (guys don’t forget that Nokia is sitting on thousands of patents that can/do bring a nice cash flow)
Car sharing biz getting tougher as Avis’ Zipcar leaves Austrian market after Car2Go (Daimler) and DriveNow (BMW, Sixt) are tough to take on
Volvo to sell hybrid or electric cars from 2019 only
Such moves to create pressure within the industry as well as on auto parts producers
Tesla breaking down the rising trendline on lower demand

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

DXY

Support at 94.70 (76.4% Fibo)
Resistance at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market watching 1.1300 (post election high) on the back of recent correction and today’s ECB Minutes
10 DMA at 1.1336 and 1.1344 (38.2% hourly Fibo) providing some support
Further resistance/support levels come from hourly Ichimoku

But large expiring options sitting at 1.1290/00 (EUR 2.1 bln), 1.1320/30 (EUR 1.5 bln)

USDJPY

Flat yields helped to mute the move higher
Resistance from declining trendline
Support at 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

USDZAR

Yesterday’s announcement of intention to nationalize the South African central bank which is privately held
Pushed the cross spiking to 13.5000
Resistance 13.4253 (200 DMA) and 13.5547 (23.6% Fibo)
Support 13.3166 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting support from geopolitical risks
After the sell off and JPY stabilisation
Support at 1214
Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

Data/Events

ECB Minutes
Fed’s Williams (0745 GMT)
ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)
Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)
Fed’s Fischer (2330 GMT)

July 7 – US NFPs
July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting
Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them
Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)
July 20 – ECB meeting
July 26 – FOMC meeting


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Tuesday, 27 June 2017

June 27, 2017 - Market Update (US 30-yr Trys yield flatening further, EURUSD stuck within 1.11-1.1300 range, Gold flash crash but long specs reduced while keeping the bullish bias on political uncertainity, Mkango to lauch rare-earth production in Malawi, Alibaba's Best to do delivery services, Alphabet + Avis, Apple + Herzt)

Short recap

Asia up on expectations of Yellen confirming later today one more hike this year
Europe opening lower


Trump’s small victory (finally something) as Supreme Court made some parts of travel ban applicable
Trump-Modi (India) meeting was full of socializing
China-Canada agreed not to perform cyber attacks on private businesses to steal trade/confidential info
Fed’s Duddley sees easy financial conditions, high stocks as another reason to hike one more time this year
Draghi – no QE/bond buying for Greece

Equities

Sistema, MTS in legal fight with Rosneft and Russian courts
A logistic company Best (linked to Alibaba) looking to raising approximately USD 750 mln in US IPO
As Alibaba is betting on further rise in e-commerce and the need for delivery services
Mkango to launch rare-earth production in Malawi in 2020
One of the very few projects outside China
At full capacity should produce 3000 tonnes a year
Facebook planning to launch TV quality shows, already in touch with Hollywood
Some Italian banks saved (just for now), next is Portugal
Alphabet to work with with Avis, Apple with Herzt on self-driving fleets, data collection and self-driving software "training"
But Apple likely missed the train as Alphabet and others are years ahaed...

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%
30-yr Trys yields dropped to 2.69% after weak data yesterday, thus flattening the yield curve further
Making the spread with 5-yr yield only 94 bps
The whole move was based on fading inflation expectations
As investors point to low oil prices and falling conviction of people about rising prices
Until these two change, the curve will keep flattening

EURUSD

Bear in mind end of month/quarter and mid-year flows
Stuck in the 1.1100-1.1300 range, needs a good catalyst
No carry trade flows as the EUR yields are too low
Capital flows prefer JPY, CHF as funding currencies
Support at 1.1189 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo), 10 DMA at 1.1172
Resistance 1.1195 (hourly Ichimoku), then 1.1228

USDJPY

Broke the resistance without any support from US yields
Offers were sitting at 112.00, may still be present
Battling with Ichimoku
But carry trades funding flows should keep JPY weak
Resistance at 111.79 (100 DMA), 112.25 (61.8% Fibo)
Support at 111.58 (50.0% Fibo), 111.33 (50 DMA)

Gold

Still holding well on political uncertainty globally
Waiting for Fed speakers today
While huge sell order from yesterday didn’t change the sentiment
Market saw a sale of 18.5k lots of gold and 5.5k lots of silver
In a very short time span likely by mistake as all was bought back afterwards
The drop in price triggered also stops below 1250 what took the spot to 1236 level
Should see much more selling as we witnessed a sharp reduction in longs

Today’s levels:
Resistance: rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 1249 (100 DMA), 1250 (10 DMA)
Support: 1235 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo)


Data/Events

ECB’s Draghi (0800 GMT)
Fed’s Williams (0805 GMT)
ECB’s Coeure (0830 GMT)
ECB’s Praet
BoE’s Carney (1000 GMT)
Fed’s Harker (1500 GMT)
Fed’s Yellen (1700 GMT)
Fed’s Kashkari (2130 GMT)

Wed
Fed’s Williams (0730 GMT)
Central bankers meeting in Portugal (1330 GMT):
ECB’s Draghi, Constancio, Mersch
BoE’s Carney
BoJ’s Kuroda
BoC’s Poloz

Thu
Fed’s Bullard (1700 GMT)
US Trade deficit report to be released – what accusations can we expect?

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?
July 20 – ECB meeting
July 26 – FOMC meeting


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom