Nov 10, 2017 - Market Update (US tax reform question mark, China to open financial markets/allow investments in companies, Trump with a promise of USD 250 bln deals with China, Brexit - Norther Ireland part of EU single market?, Cameco's 10% production cut a new bullish trend in uranium?, Monsanto not linked to cancer, 10-yr Bund yields saw a significant jump, DXY to close around key levels, Brent above key 62.00, than 60.00 USD/bbl)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

US tax reform – a potential delay in corporate tax rate cut to 2019 pushed stocks in US and Asian lower

Trump sees current account deficit with China not acceptable, happy with deals worth of USD 250 bln

But overall friendly remarks on both sides

China to open financial markets and allow foreign investments in financial companies

Trump not meeting Putin at APEC conference

Brexit – Northern Ireland part of single market and customs union according to EU internal papers

China to cut corporate tax rates for high tech companies

Equities

Toshiba planning to raise JPY 600 bln from new shares in a hunt for cash to avoid delisting

Burberry looking more at high-end offering but at what cost?

PSA Group moving fast with pushing its own technology to Opel

Cameco cutting 10% of its uranium production on low prices

Is it a turning point in uranium market after it has lost almost 70% since Fukushima (2011) ?

Allianz’s profit down 17%

Keystone XL having commercial back up

Monsanto not linked to cancer

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34% vs 2.33% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.33% yesterday

Very significant jump in yields in Europe yesterday

DXY

US tax reform a question mark

Weekly close important as we sit above important levels

A continuation of inverted H&S or not?

Support 94.19 (23.6% Fibo), 94.05 (Aug 2016 low), 93.77 (100 DMA)

Resistance 94.62 (10 DMA), 96.03 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market is quiet waiting for a new inspiration from next week’s US data

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA)

And below 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Expiring options (EUR 2.4 bln) with strikes between 1.1500/50

USDJPY

Quiet trading after not being able to break 114.50 few days ago on lacking US yield support

If we see the cross back above 114.00/25 you may consider rally continuation
But is has to be supported by US data next week

Otherwise if no pick up in 10-yr Trys yields towards 2.40% and above the return to 113.00 to come

Resistance at 113.76 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Staying above 112.60 may help bulls (from Thu):

Oil

What’s driving the market?

Saudi Arabia and supply cuts vs strong demand

Rally from USD 42 to 57 was supported by shutdowns due to hurricanes and ongoing Saudi Arabia upheaval

Seems to be exhausted and well overdone

Growing US production will be proved by data soon

On top of that not abiding with production cuts from OPEC members to be visible too

Likely to push prices of oil lower going to year end

At the moment traders are hesitant to take profits as they are not sure

How the situation in Saudi Arabia will develop

Likely to take profits after few days of pausing

Brent/WTI spread should stay around USD 6 on transport constrains between Cushing and Gulf coast

Brent daily

Support levels 62.00 than 60.00

Source: Saxo Bank 

WTI daily

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (1260 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 4, 2017 - Market Update (IBEX under pressure, China conspiracy theory, Some US companies may revise down, Monsanto facing issues with new soybeans Xtend, Buffett likes Pilot Flying, New Fed Chair speculations riding USD and Trys yields, EURUSD - a new H&S formation?, Gold found strong support at 1268)

Short recap

Japan/Hong Kong up, China/SoKo closed

Europe opening mixed

UK heading towards hard Brexit on settlement bill dispute

Likely to be much larger than UK politicians think

But 2-yr transition period helps to remove pressure from GBP

Higher USD causing USD funding issues

A China Conspiracy Theory: "What If Beijing Is Behind The Entire Move?" SocGen Asks  link

Equities

IBEX under pressure as Catalonia to declare independence in coming days

Constitutional Court likely overrun the declaration what will lead to escalation

People are in the streets and some companies stop working

Spanish king involved with “unacceptable disloyalty” as well

A bit of caution is warranted as some US companies may issue guidance revisions to the downside over the coming days

And analysts will adjust their earnings estimates accordingly

The impact of Harvey and Irma is still being evaluated

Then, let’s turn positive for seasonal rally towards Christmas unless something doesn’t happen

Few thoughts from Warren Buffett  video

Likes Pilot Flying

Monsanto to report a loss on lower commodity prices and lower income from farms

Troubles with new soybeans tolerant to herbicide also to blame

Amazon to pay EUR 400 mln of back taxes to Luxembourg

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.32% - plenty of next Fed Chair speculations pushed yields lower.

Treasury Sec Mnuchin favors Powell

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - EZ yields lower while UK and Spain higher

Bitcoin

BlackRock’s CEO Fink – Bitcoin shows how much money laundering is being done in the world

Offers huge opportunities but presently is more speculative in nature

China’s bitcoin market alive and well as traders defy crackdown  link

As traders buy/sell bitcoin directly with each other via peer-to-peer market place and apps

All of that shows limitations of governments trying to control the market

EURUSD

Lots of ECB/Fed speakers till weekend and next Fed Chair speculations to move the market

Warsh seems to be the favorite (most hawkish, pro-USD)

If Powell is in, risk for USD

Other candidates: Yellen, Cohn, Taylor, Hubbard, Allison

Support around 1.1708/20 held, closing this week above 1.1836 can extend the USD weakness

Support at 1.1766 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1846 (50 DMA)

A new Head & Shoulders on EURUSD daily chart? Will see...

Let's peak back to around 1.1900

Then go lower towards 1.1450-1.1500 level...

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Market having difficulties to break 113.00 on Fed Chair/US yields

Bulls may get nervous if 113.30 not decisively broken

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Supported by weaker USD

Trump ratings heading lower, likelihood of more irrational behaviour growing

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

1268 strong support (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally)

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

ECB’s Draghi (1315 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1515/1915 GMT)

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

ECB’s Praet (0430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (0815 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1000 GMT)

Fed’s George (1630 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 27, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC on summer vacation, playing safe, DXY close to support levels, EURUSD close to 200 WMA (1.1794), Gold/gold miners going higher? Heavy Deutsche Bank, Facebook enjoying the ride, Cameco - weak uranium price making heavy print)

Short recap

Asia up on dovish feeling Fed (stocks, bonds and commodities up)

Europe opening flat

ECB’s Nowotny – some room to reduce asset purchase from Jan 2018 but not stopping them

EU warned US over new sanctions against Russia as energy security is on the table

UK’s Rudd promised to keep access for EU workers

UK’s car industry production down 14% in June

US New home sales still growing but at a softer pace

FOMC – on summer vacation

Market feeling a dovish bias and lower likelihood of another 2017 hike

Balance sheet reduction to start relatively soon (market expecting announcement in Sep)

Repeated that inflation to rise to 2%

But admitted undershooting of 2% target

Equities

Daimler thinking about splitting some divisions

Third Point betting on Alibaba again as they see opportunities

No new sales of petrol/diesel cars in UK from 2040

Deutsche Bank to list its asset management arm but not before late 2018

Foxconn to build a new plant in US (3000 new jobs)

AGCO buying farm equipment division from Monsanto

Earnings

Samsung pretty comfortable with chip outlook, reported a record profits

Facebook doing well in mobile ads (up 50%), while strengthening its attraction as a social media

Amazon.com – to report better revenue supported by retail and cloud. Hungry a bit? What about the Whole Foods Market acquisition – any hints?

Procter & Gamble – organic sales should help the numbers

Celgene – investors are positive, would like to learn more on licensing deal with BeiGene

Cameco – results to be impacted by still ongoing fall in uranium prices. Market may also be interest in the progress/resolution of Tepco issue?

MasterCard – investors are positive

Intel – investors are positive by data center business will scrutinized

Twitter – market is expecting a decline in revenue on user growth stagnation

Deutsche Bank – investor worry about the results as the bank undergoes restructuring, Brexit and Trump Russian ties. All of that is also combined with ECB’s investigation of Qatar royal family and Chinese HNA who are bank’s largest shareholders.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28% (up)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.55% (down)

DXY

Offered tone, sentiment getting more bearish

As cautious Fed and political mess in Washington pressure USD

Close to support levels

EURUSD

Marching higher, no clear top yet, outside day reversal

Watching: 1.1750, 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo) and then 1.20/2200

Likely 1.1800 will be respected as ECB to turn dovish soon too

On falling inflation and missing wage growth

So the 1.1750 and 200 WMA may be seen as the top

Support of note 1.1615, then 1.1580

USDJPY

Pressured by lower US yields, long liquidate seen

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries between 111.00-111.30 (more than USD 1.7 bln)

Life insurers with lower interest in foreign bonds

Has some room to get and stay above 114.00 toward year end

Gold

Resistance at 1264 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Watch also ascending and descending trendlines

As it trades above 1250 (100 DMA) we may see opportunities from a long side

Not only in spot but also in gold mining stocks

On the back of low inflation, weak USD and Trump

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 28, 2017 - Market Update (Draghi's reflation & Yellen's “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” words, Cyber attacks - a new era to come? Bonds, equities down - a new risk off combination? JPY a perfect summer carry trade)

Short recap

Asia down inspired by US session after another delay of healthcare bill vote

Europe opening lower

World coping with another cyber attack – a new era to come?

Draghi replaced deflationary forces by reflationary ones and pushed EUR higher

Sounds like woo-doo to me when we talk about “forces”…

But overall his speech was in line with dovish policy. More link  

Yellen was out with “no new financial crisis in our lifetime” comment, meaning as long as she is alive. More link

Healthcare reform vote delayed as Republicans score a goal to their own net

Bonds and equities on defensive overall yesterday what makes an interesting risk off combination

Carry trades to suffer, thus EM and high yield DM not to do well if current setup continues

Equities

Techs, biotechs and EM bleeding

Nestle to buy back CHF 20 bln worth of shares over 3 years

Option traders looking at AstraZeneca from a short side as the market positions itself for lung cancer trial results

Alphabet hit by EUR 2.4 bln fine from EU for abusive behaviour in search engine

Not effecting long term business as the fine is just 3% of cash/1.5 month of cash flow

Facebook at 2 bln user mark, doubling since 2012

Syngenta (owned by Chinese) interested in Bayer assets that need to be sold

As a part of Monsanto takeover deal

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22% vs 2.14% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.39% vs 0.25% yesterday

DXY

Support 95.90, then 94.70 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance 96.44 (50.0% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market was caught by surprise with Draghi’s reflationary forces comment

What was also confirmed by price action

If we see the 1.1295/1300 holding, we are likely marching through 1.1400

But the historical supply range comes towards 1.1500 (check the weekly chart)

Central bankers to drive the show today too

Support at 1.1366, 1.1300

Resistance at 1.1400, 1.1415/30, 1.1464, 1.1500

Weekly chart (Source: Saxo Bank)

Daily chart (Source: Saxo Bank)

USDJPY

Dip buying as a strategy? As some may see carry trade going to summer pushing JPY lower

Exporters holding sell orders at 112.50

Bids towards 112.00, more below

Support 111.80 (100 DMA) and then 111.50 with USD 2.5 bln option expiring

Resistance 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/Events

Fed’s Williams (0730 GMT)

Central bankers meeting in Portugal:

ECB’s Mersch (0900 GMT), Lautenschlager (1045 GMT), Constancio (1130 GMT), Draghi (1330 GMT),

BoE’s Carney (1330 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1330 GMT)

BoC’s Poloz (1330 GMT)

Thu

Fed’s Bullard (1700 GMT)

US Trade deficit report to be released – what accusations can we expect?

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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Apr 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down on Fed planning to reduce its balance sheet while more doubts about Trump ability to deliver fiscal stimulus makes rounds in the markets

Saw strength in JPY, VIX and USDJPY vols sharply higher, AUDJPY on the short side

Europe opening lower

Draghi was just out – Monetary policy still appropriate, reassessment not warranted at this stage, still need to build sufficient confidence, not having enough evidence to change inflation forecast

FOMC Minutes – Fed officials seriously discussed the shrinking of balance sheet with possible start at the end of 2017 but not sure whether through direct sales or not reinvesting maturing papers

ADP numbers confirmed strong underlying hiring trend by US companies

Trump expressed himself that Asad crossed the red line in chemical attack on civilians

But haven’t specified anything more (seems like he is learning how to communicate…before meeting Xi today at least)

Toronto house prices up 33% on a year with average price around CAD 916k per property

Sounds like a bubble

To watch global financials and credit for a potential upcoming correction

Monsanto reported better results helped by seeds of soybean and corn

AkzoNobel shareholders may go against the company in order to push for take over talks with PPG Industries

As mentioned yesterday after positive US antitrust ruling the EU officials approved the ChemChina takeover of Syngenta as well yesterday

Apple to control more the core technologies due to margins, further innovation and decrease dependence on 3^rd party suppliers

Rockwell to buy B/E Aerospace (USD 6.4 bln)

Amazon looking to buy hydrogen fuel cell maker Plug Power

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.25%

Data

GE: Factory orders lower than expected

EZ: Retail PMI expected lower

US: Jobless Claims expected lower

ECB Praet (0730 GMT) Weidmann (0940 GMT), Constancio (1145 GMT) speaking

ECB Minutes (1130 GMT) - should provide more clarity either on market overraction or misjudgement of Draghi's speech

Trump to meet Chinese president (2 days)

G20 Econ ministers meeting

NATO foreign ministers meeting (2 days)

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

Fred Williams (today)

James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 10, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

EU opening higher

Volkswagen keeps cutting on top execs bonuses

Akzo Nobel turned down EUR 21 bln offer from PPG Industries

Looking to spin off chemical operations

WikiLeaks offered technology companies to share details on CIA hacking tools in order to develop updates

Alibaba in talks to raise USD 5 bln via offshore loan for refinancing and general use

Bayer and Monsanto selling assets worth of USD 2.5 bln to get regulatory approvals for their merger

BASF seems to be a buyer of some assets

DAX above 12 000

S&P 500 eying 2400, if broken may be a positive signal

If not, the range 2350-2400 may stay with us for some time

Well having more than 8 years of bull market

US stocks trading at 20% premium to EU peers

Risk of weak oil to be translated to weakness of stocks at certain point

Oil under pressure from speculative long positions liquidation

Significant amount of longs still in red waiting for a sell signal on potential spikes

Brent USD 50 level may be a trigger point for OPEC verbal intervention or eventually action

Gold still neutral – support at 1193, then at 1177

ECB

Draghi had to admit some improvement what in turn supported EUR across the board

ECB neutralizing its guidance but wording staying the same

Rates at current level or lower for extended period of time, well past the horizon of QE

From Apr till end of Dec 2017 or beyond in necessary asset purchases will be EUR 60 a month

No need for further urgent measures

No new TLTRO

Some of the risks didn’t materialize

EZ yields moving higher even the ECB statement was dovish

Peripheral spreads without any change meaning no sign of ECB support

EURUSD - daily levels:

3rd res 1.0707

2nd res 1.0661

1st res 1.0618

Pivot 1.0571

1st sup 1.0529

2nd sup 1.0482

3rd sup 1.0439

USDJPY – strongly benefiting from higher US yields (10-yr above 2.61%)

Daily levels:

3rd res 115.85

2nd res 115.42

1st res 115.17

Pivot 114.74

1st sup 114.50

2nd sup 114.07

3rd sup 113.82

Data

EU Summit

GE: Trade Balance

UK: Manufacturing production – expected lower

US: NFPs – headline figure and unemployment rate not that important unless we have a bad surprise from headline number

All is about Average hourly earnings after January drop

Important for future rate hikes pace

Market pricing June hike at 52%

Headline +190k vs +227k in Jan

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% in Jan

Unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.8% in Jan

Next week will be busy:

Mar 13-14 – US budget draft to show first details of Trumps stimulus plan

Mar 15 – FOMC (25 bps hike expected)

Mar 15 – Dutch elections

Mar 15 – US debt ceiling deadline

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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