Nov 28, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview: Dollar Index (Updated)

Hi,
this is another weekly dollar update. It's even more interesting this time as bulls have to confirm breakout on weekly chart and that could be the challange taking intrtaday chart and upcoming GDP and NFP numbers into consideration.

We are still bullish medium and long term and if bulls confirm that breakout it could be just begining :)
Please check details on the charts below, enjoy:

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US Dollar Weekly charts:

Previous updates:

DX – Weekly Update

The next two weeks is going to be very interesting from dolar traders perspective.

Our previous DX update is available here.

Free Live Trading Room - Join Us here

Risk Events:

Clinton / Trump rumors, speculations, comments

2nd November – FOMC

4th November – NFP

8th November – Election Day

Also we have to remember  we may see some profit taking / loss booking before end of the year when liquidity is still ok ( think mid/end of November ). So it’s clear that even the greatest Technical Analysis may not work because of the factors could play bigger role.

Anyway, as you can see on the chart below, we have a trading range after strong rally and we expect continuation to the upside ( yes, we are still USD bulls medium and long term as long as we are above 91/90,80 based on weekly close ).

Short term – failure around 100 level  could be good reason to Take some profits with first suport around  96 ( mid-range) and the bottom of that range as critical one.

Please check our latest recorded Live Trading Room’s where we discussed short term possibilities on USDJPY and EURUSD ( and the short term Outlook is still valid ): here and here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Oct 30, 2016 - Weekly Tech Overview Dollar Index (2nd Update to Week 27)

DX – Weekly Update

The next two weeks is going to be very interesting from dolar traders perspective.

Our previous DX update is available here.

Free Live Trading Room - Join Us here

Risk Events:

Clinton / Trump rumors, speculations, comments

2nd November – FOMC

4th November – NFP

8th November – Election Day

Also we have to remember  we may see some profit taking / loss booking before end of the year when liquidity is still ok ( think mid/end of November ). So it’s clear that even the greatest Technical Analysis may not work because of the factors could play bigger role.

Anyway, as you can see on the chart below, we have a trading range after strong rally and we expect continuation to the upside ( yes, we are still USD bulls medium and long term as long as we are above 91/90,80 based on weekly close ).

Short term – failure around 100 level  could be good reason to Take some profits with first suport around  96 ( mid-range) and the bottom of that range as critical one.

Please check our latest recorded Live Trading Room’s where we discussed short term possibilities on USDJPY and EURUSD ( and the short term Outlook is still valid ): here and here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Oct 15, 2016 - (Video) Weekly Tech Overview Dollar Index (Update to Week 27)

Good evening,
it's a video update to our original Weekly Tech Overview from Week 27 available here

FREE Live Trading Room / Live Market Coverage click here

We were and we are still within USD bull camp over the medium and long term ( as explained before ). The speed of USD rally will mostly depend on USDJPY ( in our opinion right now ), as EURUSD has a good chance to test at least bottom of the range on weekly. Please watch the video for more details:

Please also check our EURUSD analysis here and USDJPY analysis here

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.

Happy Trading
Mr Price Action


DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Sep 1, 2016 - Story of the Week: US job market - Full time vs. Part time employment

This week we are focusing on the situation in the US job market. The headline total NFP employment numbers are followed by the public but the data should be broken down into full time employment and part time employment. This can give us an interesting insight. There are still some opinions that part time employment being still too high etc. I have put together few interesting charts below to see the real trends and what could be behind the numbers…. Before we continue however, let’s look at the reasons why people could be employed part time...

Part time employment figures include people who are part time employed because they couldn't get a full time job or their working hours have been cut...etc. Despite that, they still want to have a full time job they accept the part time offer  (Part time for Economic reasons). The other group contains those who just need more free time to take care of their kids, want to earn some extra money or just want some time for their hobby … (Part time for Non-Economic reasons).

Now the rest is for those who still have doubts about the health of the US Labor market … let the charts below tell you the rest of the story about the full time and part time employment in the US…

Total employment is increasing steadily since 2011:

… and the Full time employment is keeping the pace:

Part time employment stopped growing in 2013 and since then it stays within the range. However, when you look at the chart closely, the trend turned to the downside: 

The number of those who are part time employed for non-economic reasons or if you like, those who don't want to be full time employed are growing rapidly… (please note here the data is only for the last 10 years):

However, the number of people who are “forced” to work part time, despite they would like to find a full time job, is falling strongly, which is offsetting the increase of the Non-Economic Reasons group… (again chart starting in 2006):

Well, after looking above we should believe the Fed when they say the labour market is in a good shape. However, what the Fed should realize is that without doubt these trends shown on the charts will cause sooner or later an increase in wages and this will generate inflation.

Our message... 

Dear Fed, 

There is no more time to postpone the hike and if you will be too late to do so, you will make the same mistake as Mr Greenspan did few years ago. This will be the beginning of another crisis, but this time much bigger one than the last one.

Sincerely Yours,

Mr TechMan

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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NFP: Upcoming Friday US job data preview

Friday’s NFPs have become a highly watched event, as after May +38k figure, Brexit referendum impact and uncertainty in global economy they will definitely provide some hints whether Fed is really off with rate hikes until late-2017. Overall, market is expecting the number between +175k and 183k while the 3 month average is at +116k. 

You should bear in mind that the release of strong number may not be enough for Fed to act, due to above mentioned risks and the fact that Fed is in a wait-and-see mode. Actually, even Minutes from last FOMC meeting confirmed that as Fed officials opted for prudent approach while stayed divided about the pace of rate hikes. Strong number supported by pretty good June ISM Non-manufacturing, better Final Service PMI, and eventually very solid Q2 GDP (to be out end of July) may form a good base for Fed thinking again about rate hike this year. 

The uncertainty and at certain moments risk off attitude are still present in the market what is well proved by very low yields in US Treasuries. They didn’t even recover during after-Brexit risk-on rally, in other words the low yields erased completely the effect of Dec 2015 Fed rate hike.

As Dudley (Fed) mentioned on Tuesday, we need to be patient on rates because of low inflation and uncertain global economic outlook. According to him US economy is doing well on average and US political process may represent certain risks. Overall, they need to see more data as they do not know more as all of us do.

To get ready for a strong number, check our DXY ( dollar index ) weekly technical overview at: 

http://landoftrading.blogspot.dk/2016/07/weekly-tech-overview-week-27.html.

Data will be released Firday at 12:30 GMT:
NFPs: +175k-183k exp, +38k previous
Unempl. rate: 4.8% exp, 4.7% previous
Hourly earnings: 0.2% exp, 0.2% previous M/M
Hourly earnings: 2.7% exp, 2.5% previous Y/Y

Participation rate: N.A. exp. 62.6% previous 


Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading teams view on past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not and shouldn´t been viewed as an investment advice and the creator of this material shouldn´t been hold liable for any loss resulting from action where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this  material  as an investment advice. 

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