Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher but correcting

Kuroda sees 2% inflation in 2018

To keep the short term rate target at -0.1%

And 10-yr Japan bond yield at 0%

UK’s employers having hard times to recruit foreign workers

Fed’s Bullard having concern over weaker growth and inflation data in Q1

Alex Weber from UBS (former Bundesbank head):

Brexit negative for Europe, more volatility to come

ECB likely to remove some easing wording in June

And announce taper in Sep

Equities

Akzo Nobel rejected the PPG Industries take over bid again

UK’s energy supplier Centrica not very happy with warm weather and low commodity prices

As they bite into the margins

Home Capital suspended dividend, burnt 1.6 bln out of 2.0 bln of line of credit as deposit flee away

Industry veterans added to the Board

Suncor looking at new oil sands project in Alberta (Canada)

ISS pushing shareholders of PrivateBancorp to reject takeover offer from CIBC

Earnings

Commerzbank reported higher operating income, proof that raising rates benefit banks

Walt Disney expecting better results

Valeant investors more focussed on asset sales than earnings

Others reporting: Allergan, Duke Energy, Nvidia, Electronic Arts, SunPower,

VIX touching the 9.77 level, lowest level since 1993

Market sees very little risk in the near future

Will not last long, what is going to be the trigger?

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% with real yields at 2 month high of 0.51%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.42% - ECB’s June language adjustment and beginning of taper in Sep getting priced in

Yield likely to move to 0.50% attacking the recent highs

FR-GE spread stuck at 42 bps (after Macron victory), stabilized here

What is still above 20-30 bps historic levels but market is waiting for June Parliamentary elections

EURCHF, USDCHF – weaker CHF on higher yields

And money flows leaving safe heavens

To watch SNB sight deposits stats – to stabilize or fall?

USDJPY – on the way to 115.00 after clearing Ichimoku

Next resistance 113.76 (76.4% Fibo)

Risk on, US yields and tax reform progress crucial

Commodities

Oil very indecisive as OPEC/non-OPEC cut may extend to 2018

But slowing demand and rapidly rising production in US temper the cut impact

Gold playing within 1200/50 range

USD and US yields not helping

Options market back to neutral

Specs long cut, real money no change

Data

US: Small Business Optimism Index to slow a bit

US: JOLTS to slow a bit

Fed's Kashkari (1300 GMT), George (1540 GMT), Rosengren (1700 GMT) and Kaplan (2015 GMT) speaking

G7 finance ministers meeting in Italy this week

Discussing: trade, financial institutions, fighting inequality and tax crime

Upcoming

Wed – ECB’s Draghi and Fed’s Rosengren, Kashkari speaking

Thu – Fed's Dudley speaking

Fri – US CPI and Fed's Evans speaking

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but with caution

Trump revoking pro-climate regulations

…having fun of all those …exits….? Well, me too.

Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, Germanexit, Brexit…and now:

Scoxit – Scottish parliament said yes to second Scottish referendum

UK Gov will not negotiate about it, thus the vote is just symbolic in nature

Norther Ireland looking at joining Ireland to become a part of EU

Seems to have busy upcoming two years after UK triggering Art 50 today

May to speak at Parliament at 11:30 GMT

Formal Brexit announcement at 12:30 GMT at the latest

As at 12:45 GMT Tusk (EU Council President) holds a press conference

GBPUSD down on unofficial Brexit trigger (to 1.2378 from around 1.2600 yesterday)

Tusk to focus on negotiations terms first, the rest may follow

EURGBP – a sentiment test today as the official letter gets delivered

USD turning the corner primarily on Trys yields expectations, general sentiment what is also reflected in important USD pairs

To keep the momentum we need continuation of good data and attractive tax policy terms

Fischer (Fed) seeing two more hikes as right this year

10-yr Trys yield at 2.42%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

Tesla – Chinese Tencent owning 5% shares what means a stable long-term relationship and fresh capital stream for Tesla

Roche Holding obtained an approval for multiple sclerosis drug from FDA

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals obtained an approval for dermatitis drug from FDA

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank positive on S&P credit rating upgrade

On the back of a new law in Germany benefiting senior creditors

More and more bankers working for London based banks are getting nervous about what operations will be moved to EU

What in turn puts a pressure on the banks to keep the skilled and experienced employees from leaving

S&P 500 staying above 2350 support (next 2300)

But below the descending trendline

Valuations weighting on the market

Data

GE: Import Price Index – was up +0.7%

US: Pending Home Sales Index – to rise despite shortage of houses

Speakers:

Evans (1320 GMT)

Rosengren (1520 GMT)

Praet (1650 GMT)

Friday – EU issuing a statement on Brexit to define the guidelines

Apr 4 – EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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