Short recap
Asia in green
Europe opening higher
Trumps racist comments
are dangerous in general
And can also change the behaviour of the public
Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and
economy
FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms
USD hit by markets
pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries
Applications for 12 ETFs and 2 mutual funds withdrawn
from SEC approval process
On liquidity and security concerns
Equities
SoftBank Group
to list mobile phone biz (USD 18 bln)
This step should cement the ambitions as a global
investor in tech
Lactalis to
compensate the victims of Salmonella
BlackRock with USD
6 trln of AUM
Earnings
Markets ready for strong figures only
BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley,
Schlumberger, ASML reporting
Bulls are at extreme levels
Markets with 15 months of gains
Equity funds experiencing record inflows
Source: Yardeni Research
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.55% vs 2.55% on Friday
10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.52% on Friday
2-yr Trys yield at 2.00% after a recent sharp rise
2-yr Bund yield at -0.62%
ECB’s Weidmann calling for exact QE end date
ECB still with QE despite economy getting stronger
“The 1.45% for tens can legitimately be cited as the end
of the bond bull market which began at 15.8% in 1981 and provided prescient
portfolio managers with the potential for huge capital gains and the moniker of
“total return”
COT report
EUR longs at 145k vs 128k week before
JPY shorts at 126k vs 122k week before
GBP longs at 26k vs 16k week before
EURUSD
ECB Minutes after taste still in the market
Draghi is definitely happy as higher EUR and yields
tighten monetary conditions
What in turn gives him more time to keep negative rates
despite EZ economy is getting stronger
EUR is also supported by GE coalition talks and
Merkel/Macron calls for EZ reforms
Bullish outside week is completed
Consolidation should be the name of the game today
Support at 1.2100, 1.2088, 1.2078 (23.6% Fibo), 1.2046
(10 DMA), 1.2041 (2012 low)
Resistance at 1.2227 (50% Fibo of 2014/15 move), 1.2330
(descending trendline – 2008/2011/2014 and 2008 low)
But serious one at 1.2644 (61.8% Fibo)
For Elliott Waves lovers the 1.2288 is critical
Looking from short side at EUR
EURUSD daily
Focus on Fibo levels and yellow zones
Source: Saxo Bank
EURUSD weekly
Focus on two red circles (highs and descending
trendlines)
Source: Saxo Bank
Gold
Specs added 110k lots recently on weaker USD,
geopolitical risks
Resistance at 1357 (2017 high) and 1357-75 range
Support at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)
Source: Saxo Bank
Data/events
Should be quite day
US closed on account of Martin Luther King Jr day
Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline
Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew
Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world
Against protectionism of Trump/US
Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?
Jan 25 - ECB
Jan 30 – US State of the Union
Jan 31 – FOMC
Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair
Feb 16 – Chinese New Year
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where
despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment
advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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