Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower on commodities losing the ground on worries about the global growth

Europe opening lower

DAX printing new historical high

Praet pushed EURUSD higher with ECB guidance shift to focus on data

House approved new healthcare bill

Now it is heading to Senate where it will face a strong opposition

EZ to grant a relief on Greek debt but reforms first

Equities

Ferrari driving super high

Having the room to go even higher among luxurious brands based on fundamentals?

Johnson & Johnson to pay USD 110 mln in cancer dispute

CIBC making offer for PrivateBancorp better (USD 4.9 bln)

Earnings season,

Berskshire Hathaway reporting, the annual shareholders meeting to follow

Bonds

Bond markets pricing in Macron’s win

FR-GE spread down to 44 bps

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% - substantial rise on June hike expectations

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EURUSD higher ahead of French elections

Move in EUR, not USD

Strong resistance at 1.1020 (descending trendline on daily chart)

But USD strength can come from much better headline NFPs or earnings rising more than +0.3%

Eventually, the rising peripheral spreads

Data

US: NFPs – market not expecting any surprise based on strong ADP

Full focus on earnings growth given the full employment

Headline +185k exp. vs +98k prior

Unemployment rate 4.6% exp. vs 4.5% prior

Average hourly earnings +0.3% exp. vs +0.2% prior

Fed speakers (GMT):

Fischer 15:30

Williams 16:45

Yellen, Evans, Rosengren, Bullard 17:30

Upcoming

Sunday – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

   

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Mar 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red

EU opening lower

Smaller companies in UK getting ready for Brexit as they keep cash and reduce investments  

Peugeot-Opel deal may be announced in a couple of days

Henkel bidding for Darex Packaging (USD 1.05 bln)

Alcoa consolidating internally

FX brokers tempted by US market on upcoming financial deregulations

Snap up 41% first day on NYSE in most prominent tech IPO since Alibaba

May be reminding us 1999-2000 year with techs flying high, CBs supporting markets with cheap money

Kind of scenario when the last 1-2 years of bull market are very strong

US stocks valuation overstretched

But looking at Europe can be an option, especially if political risks are off the table

Gold consolidating, support at 1220

Silver dropped 4%, support at 17.38/17.73

US 10 yr Trys yield at 2.47%

Very busy day for Fed’s officials as they have last chance to tweak the market about March hike (now priced at 90%):

Evans, Lacker (1515 GMT)

Powell (1715 GMT)

Fischer (1730 GMT)

Yellen (1800 GMT)

If Fed hikes in March, the wording about potential acceleration of hikes will be crucial for the market

EUR – political risks in EZ vs better incoming data, risk of taper from ECB

USD – Trump stimulus policies, hikes

EURUSD – no change, overall market is positioned neutral in EUR

Res 1.0526 (61.8% Fibo)

Sup range 1.0500/20

Sup 1.0453-61

Sup 1.0340

Closing below 1.0460 important for big players as bears worked well the whole week. EUR may get stronger but against CHF, JPY, AUD…etc.

The risk are Fed speakers, if we do not manage to close below 1.0460/80 range (as something may be cooking around) the caution next week is warranted (ECB, US NFPs).

Reuters poll:

EURUSD at 1.0400 in 6m, 1.0300 in 12m

Trump not clear on USD

EURUSD options

Seen realized vols trading lower

1w Implied much higher at 9 than Realized at 4

1w expiry is covering Yellen tonight and US NFPs next Friday

RRs keep strongly favoring puts as we are sitting close to 2017 low of 1.0340

FR elections – despite recent opinion polls the expiries covering 2^nd round of vote on May 7 still trading at high end of volatility curve

Data

Fri:

EZ: Retail sales to print higher but trending lower

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Next Friday:

US: NFPs

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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