Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 16, 2017 - Market Update (May urgently in Brussels ahead of EU Summit, Austrian elections outcome a non event as no exit EU talk, ECB's QE limit at 2.5 trln?, Aramco's private shares sale instead of IPO, Volkswagen short of cobalt supplies, Tech to benefit from corporate spending but position adjustments imminent, USDJPY weekly - not great for bulls but DXY holding above lows may give a hand)

Short recap

Asia up
Europe opening higher

Governor of PBOC Zhou bullish on Chinese economy ahead of Congress

Austria turning populist to far right but no exit EU talk

To challenge Macron’s view of more Europe, tough on immigration…etc.

Catalonia ready for talks with Spain but no mentioning of declaration of independence

Iraqi military in control of Kurdish oil fields

ECB’s QE limited at EUR 2.5 trln ?  link

Fed’s Yellen monitoring inflation, economy strong, gradual hikes appropriate

Fed’s Rosengren ok with Dec hike and 3-4 more hikes next year

BoJ’s Kuroda – markets overlooking the geopolitical risks

May taking it seriously and making unannounced trip to Brussels to meet with Barnier and Juncker today  ahead of EU Summit Oct 19-20  link

Equities

Atlantia increasing offer for Abertis to EUR 17.8 bln to stretch muscles over ACS’s offer

SWIFT holding an annual meeting with focus on cyber security

Aramco may go for a private share sale instead of IPO

With sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors taking advantage

Volkswagen having issues to secure stable cobalt supply in a long run

What is another sign of strong competition in electric vehicles field

Glencore, China Molybdenum, Vale are largest producers of cobalt

Earnings

Tech companies to benefit from higher corporate spending

But are a bit overstretched after rally from Sep

May see some position adjusting ahead of next week releases

Mon – Netflix

Tue – MS, GS, IBM, J&J

Wed – American Express, Atlas Copco, eBay, P&G

Thu – Unilever, SAP

Fri – GE, Daimler

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

COT report as of last Tue

Specs decreased bearish USD positions

EUR longs at 98k vs 91k previous week

JPY shorts at 101k vs 85k previous week

GBP longs at 15k vs 20k previous week

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi, hawkish Yellen, Merkel’s party loss pushed cross lower at the open

Traders noted stops below 1.1790 with bids sitting around 1.1755/65

Resistance at 1.1845 (50 DMA)1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880 (break can open short term higher), 1.1910

Support at 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1780 (10 DMA), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Keeps heavy after US CPI miss on Fri

112.00 kept by expiring options

Bids sitting at 111.50 while offers above 112.10

Resistance at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 111.83 (200 WMA), 112.15 (50 WMA)

Support at 111.78 (200 DMA)

Weekly chart - not great from bulls perspective

but DXY is telling a different story as long as last week low holds

Data/events

EU Foreign Affairs Council

UK’s May, Davis meeting EU’s Juncker, Barnier

ECB’s Angeloni (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1800 GMT)

Tue

ECB’s Constancio (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (0930 MT)

Fed’s Harker (1700 GMT)

Wed

ECB’s Draghi (0810 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Duddley (1200 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Hirtle

Fed’s Fischer

Thu

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fri

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 18-20  – China National Congress

Oct 19-20 – EU Summit (Brexit to be heavily debated)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 2, 2017 - Market Update (Catalan 90% vote, Johnson-May old friends, DAX attacking 12 954 on weaker EUR, 10-yr Trys yield bullish close, Global equity funds enjoying the money in rally)

Short recap

Asian up

Europe opening higher

Catalonian 90% vote for independence

Madrid and police not comfortable with it

Declaration of independence likely to come in 48 hours

Boris Johnson sees Theresa May gone within the year (friends…)

Boeing-Bombardier dispute a proof of UK-US Trump kind of preferential partnership

Warsh the new Fed’s head after meeting with Trump

Used to be a Fed gov (2006/11) but resigned over disagreement over bond buying

Other candidates might be: Yellen, Cohn, Powell, Hubbard

ECB close to tapering? What about the business and consumer confidence hitting multiyear highs…

Equities

Volkswagen making up the diesel scandal bill up to USD 30 bln

Global Logistic Properties buying Gazeley (USD 2.8 bln) to enter EU as a lucrative market

Germany eying to buy warplanes from Boeing

Bombardier goes short against Boeing but seals USD 1.7 bln deal with SpiceJet from India to sell 50 planes

Global equity funds still growing in size as investor poor money in

Cryptocurrency exchanges still facing the security and fraud issues

DAX to benefit from weaker EUR, next stop 12 954 or higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.58% vs 2.58% on Friday – had a bullish close on Friday posting outside month/monthly reversal

10-yr Bund yield at 1.67% vs 1.07% on Friday

Spanish bonds - Catalan vote impact – we need to see market reaction first

As we balance between the independence and strong economy

COT report as of Tue last week

USD: Leveraged funds net sellers

Shorts at the highest level since May 2014

EUR: Largest net buying

Longs at 88k vs 62k previously

GBP: First net longs since Oct 2015

Longs 5k vs shorts 10k previously

EURUSD

Gapped lower but Catalan vote to have a short-lived impact

Unless we see a deep constitutional crisis in Spain

Support at 1.1762 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1844 (50 DMA)

USDJPY

Worth of watching as DXY is getting some bullish signs

And Trump is moving with tax reform

Cross posted also a bullish monthly reversal on Friday

And trades above the descending trend line)

What may open the door towards 114.36-50 range (recent highs)

Or even 118.60/65 if we seen the Trump trade back

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Catalan vote had no major impact

Other geopolitical risks: NoKo, Kurdistan-Turkey, Iraq, Iran

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

ECB’s Linde (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1015 & 1300 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1800 GMT)

Oct 1-4 – UK’s Tory party meeting

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Tue

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Dudley

Fed’s Powell

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Harker

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bullard

Fed’s Kaplan

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - UK elections/Brexit - few words...

David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Theresa May…all of them screwed up big time

Who is going to clean up the mess after them?

Article 50 triggered, UK leaving EU by Mar 31, 2019

May to speak at 0900 GMT

May likely to step down as Brits do not share her vision of Brexit

Dropping the Brexit would be the best outcome for Conservatives

No Scottish referendum in sight, as Scots favoured winning over May than voting for independence

EU – weak negotiating partner risks poor outcome

Two year Brexit talks deadline in question

Not sure how EU will react

All in all – more troubles and tensions ahead

But the message is clear as it was in Dutch and French elections, people do not wish a cheap populism

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 29, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher but with caution

Trump revoking pro-climate regulations

…having fun of all those …exits….? Well, me too.

Grexit, Italexit, Frexit, Germanexit, Brexit…and now:

Scoxit – Scottish parliament said yes to second Scottish referendum

UK Gov will not negotiate about it, thus the vote is just symbolic in nature

Norther Ireland looking at joining Ireland to become a part of EU

Seems to have busy upcoming two years after UK triggering Art 50 today

May to speak at Parliament at 11:30 GMT

Formal Brexit announcement at 12:30 GMT at the latest

As at 12:45 GMT Tusk (EU Council President) holds a press conference

GBPUSD down on unofficial Brexit trigger (to 1.2378 from around 1.2600 yesterday)

Tusk to focus on negotiations terms first, the rest may follow

EURGBP – a sentiment test today as the official letter gets delivered

USD turning the corner primarily on Trys yields expectations, general sentiment what is also reflected in important USD pairs

To keep the momentum we need continuation of good data and attractive tax policy terms

Fischer (Fed) seeing two more hikes as right this year

10-yr Trys yield at 2.42%

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.39%

Tesla – Chinese Tencent owning 5% shares what means a stable long-term relationship and fresh capital stream for Tesla

Roche Holding obtained an approval for multiple sclerosis drug from FDA

Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals obtained an approval for dermatitis drug from FDA

Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank positive on S&P credit rating upgrade

On the back of a new law in Germany benefiting senior creditors

More and more bankers working for London based banks are getting nervous about what operations will be moved to EU

What in turn puts a pressure on the banks to keep the skilled and experienced employees from leaving

S&P 500 staying above 2350 support (next 2300)

But below the descending trendline

Valuations weighting on the market

Data

GE: Import Price Index – was up +0.7%

US: Pending Home Sales Index – to rise despite shortage of houses

Speakers:

Evans (1320 GMT)

Rosengren (1520 GMT)

Praet (1650 GMT)

Friday – EU issuing a statement on Brexit to define the guidelines

Apr 4 – EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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