Nov 21, 2016 - UPDATE: (Trade Idea) EURGBP is testing possible demand on daily....buying some

Nov 22, 2016
Hi,
we took partial profit on EURGBP here @ 8545, stop has been moved to entry level...

Join Us again next week - click here

------------------------------------------------------
Hi,

As you are aware for sometime we were intraday sellers of this cross: above 0.90, as well as on the break of 0.8870/60 and we were doing good ( mostly we informed about our moves via Twitter here or we were discussing it during our Free Live Trading Room please check here ).

Finally we hit possible demand zones based on daily and intraday charts and last week during our Free Live Trading Room we switched to buy dips and we have called first long based on a false break ( again details are available on our Twitter account and YouTube channel).

Again, a little bit earlier today ( via Twitter ) we took another long @ 0.8497 with stop offer @ 0.8467 and open target, risking 0.25% - please check all details below:

Info via Twitter:

EURGBP Daily Chart:

EURGBP 30 min:

Please let us know should you have any additional questions or you would like to discuss other crosses as well. We are here to help you, just contact us at: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom.


Happy Trading

Mr Price Action



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Nov 21, 2016 - Why Angela Merkel will win German elections in 2017 and become the Chancellor for the fourth time?

Simply, because of the change, so no surprise here.

-          She seems to be tired and not bringing anything new but it may be her advantage as Europe desperately needs stability, experience and leadership at this time.

-          Europe needs her as a symbol of stability after few rounds of Greek crisis, ongoing rise of populism in Europe and around the world of which the last proof is Donald Trump becoming the US president. Without the experienced leader, stability, pragmatism and realistic view Europe cannot reinvent itself.

-          All of that is happening when her close allay on international scene Barrack Obama is leaving White House, the UK has no idea how to pursue with Brexit, French president Francois Hollande is not very popular (nicely said) and Marine Le Pen is gaining support on international scene and of course not to forget about Russian president Vladimir Putin who is actively working on creating the chaos and split between Western leaders.

-          Europe needs an experienced leader who can deal with problems like refugees crisis as well as to face the unpredictability that may come from Washington in terms of security and protectionism.

-          Her strength as well as weakness lies in her being the last one who can defend the basic principles of liberalism and free trade. She is very pragmatic and sometimes invisible, what is a good contrast to populists, like those who pushed the UK to Brexit situation.

Angela Merkel’s victory can bring the hope for a change on the continent.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Sept 11, 2016 - Weekly Macro Outlook W37

The central banks last week have chosen a passive approach with no changed in their monetary policies. The surprise drop in oil inventories this week caused the return of oil bulls however the rally stalled at 47.50 and WTI closed around $46/barrel and Brent after testing $50 dollars returned to $48/barrel. In the stock market Eric Rosenberg caused a sell off on Friday by backing the rate hike later this year. Next week we have BoE and SNB rate decisions.

Last week’s summary:

The USD fell against most of its peers on Tuesday after disappointing ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The biggest blow to EURUSD however came from Draghi on Thursday when EURUSD tested 1.1325. Market expected at least some expansion of the monetary easing and the unchanged policy added momentum to the euro bulls. It seems that central banks are running out of ammunition and it may signal the end of the era of loose monetary policies. Cable had a good start to the week after strong services PMI confirming last week’s surprise in manufacturing PMI, the cross tested 1.3450 levels after US ISM figures but during the Asian session lost the momentum and  the disappointing UK Manufacturing production and the mixed mood after inflation hearing caused the GBPUSD gave up its early gains. The diary price index in New Zealand was positive again third month in a row and this gave further boost to the kiwi. USDJPY bounced back from the downtrend line and tested 101 after ISM. The Crude oil gained on supplies concerns as Oil inventories fell dramatically last week. The reason however had nothing to do with fundamentals rather with bad weather which slowed down the unloading of tankers in the gulf. We may see a sharp change to the upside in inventories soon. At the end of the week everything changed however as Rosenberg on Friday seemed to be very confident regarding rate hike this year. The result dollar up against all its peers and stocks, commodities down. The criticism of Greece from Eurogroup also added to the downside for EURUSD weakness. The country accomplished only 2 out of 15 goals set by creditors and even the finance ministers backed the country by saying there is still enough time… they stressed Greece needs to speed up reforms… well we all know all the goals will not be achieved. In response Tsipras hosted a ClubMed meeting of South European countries to unite them in response to the austerity pressures from Germany. Draghi also joined the meeting adding more importance to the event. After the Brexit vote in June it could be seen as an extremely destabilizing step and could mean further pressure on EUR at Monday open.

Next Week Macro Outlook / we will have a pretty busy week ahead

Monday:

As there won’t be any big data released the first day of the week, the markets will have some time to digest the events of the weekend regarding Greece. FOMC and RBA speakers will also take the stage later the day. Before midnight the Japanese manufacturing index may add some volatility to the jen crosses.

Tuesday:

We will start the day with Chinese data, especially industrial production may move the markets, watch AUD and NZD primarily after midnight. The GBPUSD traders will have some rock’n’roll caused by UK inflation which started to pick up this year. Just half an hour later Draghi speaks after the German and EZ ZEW index is published. Look for some hints about the Club Med meeting in Athens during the weekend. In the evening the API will release the US crude inventories which after the last week’s weak data will be more important than usually. The New Zealand Current account balance will be released as last data of the day, the CA was last month in the biggest surplus since Jun 2014.

Wednesday:

We start with the UK employment data and no big changes are expected in the job market given it’s close to maximum employment. Also the oil inventories will attract more attention as usually due to last weeks weak figures and slowing exports. There could be a dramatic change to the upside I oil inventories after the tropical storm passed. Later the GDP figures from New Zealand will be released, which seems to be trending down.

Thursday:

The day is packed with important data. After midnight the Australian employment figures will bring some action to the Aussie traders. With unemployment rate at 5.7% the market expects a little increase in number of employees as the spring/summer gold rally allowed to reopen some mines. The situation in the mining sector is however still very difficult due falling imports to China. In the morning the Swiss and followed by UK rate decision and Monetary policy statement will bring some vols to the market, even booth are expected to keep their MPs unchanged. In the afternoon we have a flood of US figures, Retail sales, PPI and Unemployment claims in the same time. However if one looking for a hint when the rate hike will happen, should keep an eye on Capacity Utilization Rate. Stanley Fisher, deputy head of Fed said two weeks ago that the efficiency of the US economy is the key problem which the Fed can’t really influence. When the rate hike cycle started under Greenspan, this indicator was above 76% (in august 75.9%), when they finished it was over 82%...

Friday:

After a busy Friday we will have the sales figures in the Canadian manufacturing sector and sae time US inflation data. While the Core CPI is already at 2.2% and we know the Fed is looking at Core PCE index (1.6%). A big surprise could be the factor that influences the sentiment in a visible way. Also keep an eye on preliminary University Michigan Consumer sentiment (already at pre crisis level) and inflation expectations (currently only half of the pre-crisis expectations around 5%). 

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.

All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Weekly Macro Overview - Week 27

Previous Week Summary

The whole week was about trying to figure out what will be next after Brexit referendum. Investors reassessing the impact and fleeing to safe assets, GBP hitting the low of 1.3149 (1985 levels), the 10yr/30yr yield on Gilts at 1%/1.88% respectively, gold trading above USD 1300 level. Question mark about offshore RMB trading in Europe raised in case of UK leaving EU (China picked London for RMB offshore operations).

Monday – US Lew – strong USD is in the interest of US.

Tuesday – ECB: monetary policy created destabilizing spillovers, divergent policies creating uncertainty about future direction, higher exchange rate volatility and risk premiums. Merkel – EU strong enough to handle UK exit, no informal talks before Article 50 is activated. Farage (strong Leave) - Reiterates desire to be good friends, neighbors and trading partners with the EU. What an irony…

Wednesday – Japan is likely to implement a large (2% of GDP) fiscal stimulus after July elections; verbal interventions heavy the whole week. German monthly Preliminary June CPI slightly lower; Atlanta Fed US Q2 GDP forecast raised to +2.7% from +2.6% and real Consumer spending to +4.3% from +4.1% and lowered the next exports forecast; May Core PCE was in line with forecast +0.2%/+1.6% (monthly/yearly); Consumer spending for May was up 0.4% mainly due to strong demand for autos what can make a positive footprint on Q2 GDP number; Personal income grew but slightly below expectations and Pending home sales fell on monthly basis. According to Powel Brexit has increased global risks and Fed likely not hiking rates this year.

Thursday – interesting formula for UK: Sum of FDI + portfolio investments + current account = 12.8% of GDP. Portfolio investments and FDI inflows more than offset the Current account deficit of 5.1% GDP, but what if the inflows reverse? UK is still able to finance its current account with foreign money, but likely would need to decrease the consumption at certain point as the inflows reverse also on lower yields. EZ June Advanced CPI Est. at +0.1% vs 0.0% exp. Y/Y, CPI Core +0.9% vs 0.8% exp. Y/Y, the better number was due to higher core and slower decline in energy prices. Draghi - EZ GDP will be lower by 0.5% in 2017/18 due to Brexit. Carney (BOE) – further easing in July post Brexit likely, Chicago PMI higher on production and new orders, US Initial claims higher but in line with healthy job market (below 300k).

 

Friday – ECB loosening QE buying rules helped peripheral issues and other HY bonds should benefit as well. EU PMIs better, EZ May Unemployment rate at 10.1% in line with exp, lowest since Sep 2011. Bullard (Fed) – sees US GDP still at +2% rate, no further contagion from Brexit, Fed still tools to use, productivity needs to increase, low bond yields to continue. Fisher (Fed) – wait & see data/tightening, US economy pretty doing pretty well, no plans to move into negative rates.

Stocks rallied towards the end of month (Q2 & H1), as we saw lots of short-covering, window dressing but not sure how long will it last.

  

Upcoming Week Outlook

Monday – we can expect a refocusing of markets from assessing Brexit impact/uncertainty to incoming data. The Brexit even was a huge thing, despite being expected well in advance, but now it is a time to go back to work.

Tuesday – RBA will be in focus, followed by Carney and BOE Financial Stability Report. Will Mr Carney bring up more hints on a pre-announced July easing? Isn’t having GBP down 13% a perfect stimulus tool? Dudley and Tarullo (both Fed) will be out (Tuesday/Wednesday) and in spite of their planned agenda, we may learn more about the impact of Brexit on US jobs creation. Recent economic data were solid, except for May NFPs hiccup, employers are hiring but productivity growth is missing. Actually, all of that in the light of “upcoming” rate (non) hikes from Fed (market pricing them in 2017), will be watched and thought through.

​

Wednesday – US Trade Balance (going more negative) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (better than previous). The highlight will be FOMC Minutes from the last before Brexit meeting. They will not be that relevant in the light of new situation after the vote, but may provide some guidance on job creation, macro data vs Fed hike likelihood.

Thursday – BoJ Kuroda speaking, well Japanese officials were pretty busy with verbal interventions last week and it would be nice to see Kuroda shedding some light on potential new QE. ECB’s even non-monetary meeting can bring some surprise comments/ideas in Brexit, aftermath as Italian banks are getting fragile. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Challenger Job Cuts and Initial Jobless Claims will be definitely watched ahead of Friday for some hints on US NFPs after May debacle with +38k only.

Friday – US Non-Farm payrolls will be highly watched event as market is trying (again) to solve the Fed rate hike puzzle. Market is expecting the number between 175k-181k for June and unemployment rate rising to 4.8% from 4.7% previously.

Earnings – Samsung (Wednesday), PepsiCo Inc (Thursday), other companies are not that relevant. Samsung – EPS expected to be down, revenue up but sales of S7 Galaxy seem to be strong. Ready for a positive surprise here when we are getting more to price than features game? PepsiCo – sales should be above analysts’ estimates giving us a good insight in EM and overall consumer demand, but investors will also listen to any comments on potential impact of Brexit on product lines. The changes in health trends affecting Coca-Cola are also the same for PepsiCo. Well, think twice…

Read More

Theresa May ?

A candidate for new UK Prime Minister post Michael Gove announced that UK will not use the Article 50 this year. Actually, Gove was asked today to give up his candidacy to replace David Cameron, thus leaving Theresa May alone.

Read More