Nov 22, 2017 - Market Update (US rate curve flattening on corporate and pension fund investors interest, Hong Kong above 30 000, US not comfortable with free and open internet, USDJPY condemned to 112.00-50 range ahead of US/JP holidays, Enel going digital, RBC too big to fail since yesterday, If early elections in Germany not before end of Q1 2018)

Short recap

Asian in green

Europe opening higher

If new elections in Germany, not before end of Q1 2018

Thus prolonging the uncertainty but EUR is indifferent, as it was the case with some other coalition talks in EU

US to take down the free and open internet

Giving the service providers possibility to choose what content the users will access

Lacklustre trading ahead of US and JP holidays

Equities

Hong Kong index breaching 30 000 on continuation of risk and strong earnings

Enel increasing spending on digital networks to ready for end user intelligent solutions

RBC on a global list of too big to fail, thus will need to hold extra capital (+1%)

Rio Tinto, Wealth Minerals and GSR Capital to bid for SQM that is a lithium producer

EU digital tax still an issue for some EU states

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

US yield curve keeps flattening what is a very interesting development we have pointed to recently

Very likely it is related to US tax reform implications as pension funds load the bonds due to:

Corporates increasing the funding of pension schemes before next year further rise in US rates

And pension fund investors also making contributions as they may lose some tax exemptions next year with new reform in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.34%

Situation in Turkey not helping sovereign and bank bonds

As investors prefer safer assets

EURUSD

German politics a focus

Support around 1.1710, 1.1734 (10 DMA)

Resistance range 1.1755/60/65 where are 55 & 100 DMA, 38.2% Fibo and yesterday’s high

USDJPY

Lower US yields and yield flattening pushing JPY higher

Decent offers seen above 112.50 with expiring options

112.44 (100 HMA) 112.47 (55 DMA)

Bids sitting at 112.00 with USD 1.4 bln option expiring with strike at this level

Support also from 100 & 200 DMA (around 111.70 level) and 111.90 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

JP Labour Thanksgiving day

Fri

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 3, 2017 - Market Update (Trump, Xi, Abe, China-Hong Kong bond connect on, Banco Popular clean up, Buffett banking at BofA, FX markets to become very sensitive to data beats/misses, Trump to fight the steel and bank regulation at G20)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Overall markets are still digesting last week’s movements

Low liquidity due to July 4 US Independence day holiday

Japanese PM Abe hit by the significant loss in Tokyo elections, likely to face more troubles in the future

Trump had a call with Xi and Abe discussing North Korea and pushing China on trade issues

Abe’s advisor was out with a new BoJ governor idea

US trade deficit report delayed again as Trump is getting ready to fight steel at G20

Investors lowered their exposure to US stocks on valuations

While increased EZ assets to 2yr high

US data keep disappointing, lower expectations likely to come

What may turn into new data beats

Qatar getting 2 more days to fulfill requests

China-Hong Kong bond connect up an running

Linking foreign investors with USD 9 trln Chinese bond market

Citi of London delegation on the way to Brussels

But what the welcome there would look like?

Equities

After taking over Banco Santander Banco Popular is looking to sell EUR 30 bln of nonperforming assets in order to clean up the mess on its books

BMW is testing UK as an investment destination as it moves the decision about where to build a new electric Mini car

Buffett is taking it at full speed at BofA

Deal of Nike with Amazon is a first major hit to retailers

Baidu looking at autonomy vehicles field

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% (up from 2.28% on Friday morning)

Posted outside week

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47% (up from 0.46% on Friday morning) – on the way to reach the high from March at 51 bps?

Yields are up as markets have less worries about low inflation pressures

And see normalization of rates in Europe too

COT report

EUR longs at 59k vs 46k previous week

JPY shorts at 61k vs 50k previous week

GBP shorts at 39k vs 38k previous week

USD longs hitting 1yr low, cut by 50%

DXY

Lower summer liquidity and more sensitive market reactions to data beats/misses to be part of the game

Support at 94.70 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

EURUSD

USD weakness likely to continue this week too

But getting way over 1.1600 not sustainable

Trading right below strong resistance from descending trendline  and 1.1495 & 1.1615

If broken we can eventually get ready for a move towards 1.2000/1.2500

With first target at 1.1714 (1.1750)

Getting through 1.1450 will help us to look at 1.1580

USDJPY

USJDPY lagging higher yields

But staying resilient after Abe’s Tokyo defeat

Breaking 112.92 can open the door to 114.36

Support at 112.24 (61.8% Fibo),

Resistance at 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

Gold

Suffering from CBs upcoming normalization

Support at 1233 (200 DMA) and 1214

Resistance at 1245 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/Events

Fed’s Bullard (0830 GMT)

July 5 – FOMC minutes

July 6 – ECB Minutes

Fed’s Williams speaking

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting

Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them

Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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June 13, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

EU not happy with lack of clarity on UK side

Working on moving trading and clearing of EUR denominated assets out of UK

Basics of financial reform in US unveiled

Equities

US techs heavy yesterday but got some bids at the end of session

Is a 4% correction enough?

Material stocks can be back in vogue on copper break…

Hong Kong listed stocks trade at 30% discount to US peers

While offering attractive yields

Risk is China data

GE to review its business activities as the new CEO comes in

Bit of financial world…UK financials keep moving staff out of UK despite softer Brexit talk

LSE expecting profit growth to be driven by indices and clearing

Allied Irish Banks to sell 25% stake to rise EUR 3.3 bln

US banks launching their own payment app to compete with peer-to-peer Venmo

Honeywell to spin off profitable aerospace

Slovakian ESET and US Dragos warn of a malware that can attack critical infrastructure

That was behind last year’s Ukraine power blackout link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.21%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

BoJ slowed down bond buying as the rising yields stabilized

As the US Trys yields have fallen

DXY

Nothing new from yesterday…

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Seems soft ahead of FOMC

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1232 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

US yields lending some support

Lots of offers above 110.00, more above 110.50

Large options with strike 110.00 expiring today

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.54 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

GE: Schaeuble speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Lautenschlager 1000 GMT

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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