Short recap
Asia started on a bad note but recouped the losses
EU markets opened higher
Trump not to cut social welfare programs: Social Security
and Medicare
US Treasury Sec Mnuchin – fiscal stimulus impact
this year muted (not helping USD and yields)
Busy week with plenty of Fed speakers to be
watched for clues on Mar 15 rate hike (priced at 40%)
If there are no really strong comments, especially from
Yellen on Friday, we should look at May or June meeting rate hike
Chinese Navy will benefit from rich funding as
China to challenge US on the sea
Speculative longs in WTI from HFs reaching new
high at 443 mln barrels
Russell 2000 lagging S&P 500 on fiscal
stimulus delayed till end of summer or later
Note that small to medium caps will benefit more from
fiscal stimulus, thus are much more sensitive to any news
LSE & Deutsche Borse merger unlikely
getting approved by EU Commission
Nokia 3310 is back (by the way, I love my
BlackBerry Bold…)
Stada is opening the books as a part of
acquisition process
Bond yields hitting the lows on risk off and
disappointment on Trump
10 yr US Trys yield at support level of the 2.31-2.55% range
GBP not feeling well on a risk of new Scottish
referendum
EURUSD still in a range of going nowhere
(1.0500-1.0680)
With 1.0500 super strong and battle ground within the
range of 1.0500-1.0520 on the downside
Trump’s speech or US PCE inflation can shed some light on
further direction
USDJPY – still very sensitive and may react
strongly on Trump if we see lots of pro-inflationary talk that will spur the
yields rise
Below 1125.50 we have next target 111.60 if Trump doesn’t
deliver
Take a not of shrinking Ichimoku cloud on daily chart
Market may be pre-positioning for disappointment
May hit 110 or 115 (chance are widely open)
Vols pretty cheap either direction
Gold – 200 DMA at 1262 ahead of us
May see some profit taking ahead of Trump tomorrow
Fibo levels: 1250 (50%) and 1279 (61.8%)
Data
Mon:
EZ: Business Climate Indicator – to decline slightly
EZ: Consumer confidence – to decline more
US: Durable Goods Orders – to rise
US: Pending home sales – expecting 1% increase
Fed’s Kaplan (1600) – Q&A session
Tue:
2nd estimate of US GDP expecting at 2.1% vs
1.9% last month
US: Consumer confidence – expecting no change
US: House prices – expecting 5.3%
Fed’s Williams, Bullard speaking
Trump at joint session of
Congress (0200-0330 Wed)
Likely to express opinions and plans closer to Congress
way of thinking than his ideas from presidential campaign
Wed:
US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase
US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher
ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change
Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking
Beige Book
Thu:
Fed’s Mester speaking
Fri:
US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no
change
US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10
Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell,
Fisher speaking
Super Wednesday Mar 15, 2017
Dutch elections
FOMC meeting
US debt ceiling deadline – if no agreement is reached as
of Mar 16 the USD 20.1 trillion limit on federal debt is in place
What will stop Trump from his stimulus plans until the
deal with Republicans is agreed
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
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