Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 6, 2017 - Market Update (Biz moving out making Catalonian politicians to think twice as Quebec is a nice example, NFPs & DXY - Good number Ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that, EURUSD watching 1.1662 & 1.1615/05, USDJPY ready to test 113.25 & 113.37, Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation/debt)

Short recap

Asia up, inspired by US stocks printing new highs on tax reform hopes

EU opening higher

Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation and unsustainable debt

IMF still supports accommodative policy from ECB, BoJ

Italian CB asking ECB to soften bad-loan plans

ECB to put legal restrictions on ICOs

Bitcoin may fall to their jurisdiction anyway

But ICOs is a more securities area than monetary

Monday - US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Spain to issue decree enabling firms to move their legal bases out of Catalonia easily

Catalonian politicians should think twice about independence as history of Quebec referendums shows. The QC voters scarred businesses in 1980 & 1995 so much, that  Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Sun Life Financial moved to Toronto. Toronto also replaced Montreal as the most populous city in Canada later on.

Equities

IBEX witnessed a correction yesterday

And Catalan leaders may soften the stance as business is moving out

E.g. biggest Catalan bank Sabadell moved HQ to Alicante with immediate effect

Boeing-JetBlue should be out with a small hybrid-electric plane in 2022

Aramco’s IPO in 2018 on track

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

DXY

NFPs likely to have a very low negative impact on USD as tax reform moves on

Good number ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that

Resistance at 94.02 (23.6% Fibo), 94.41 (100 DMA)

Support at 93.20 (10 DMA), 92.77 (50 DMA)

EURUSD

Leverage names were selling from around 1.1700

Resistance at 1.1708 (200 WMA), 1.1714, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1762 (10 DMA), 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA)

Support at 1.1662, 1.1615, critical 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1594 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Breaking recent highs may open the door to go above 113.00

With resistance at 113.25 followed by 113.57, then 114.49

Support at 112.57 (10 DMA), 111.92 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD

Cable under pressure from May’s weak position within her party

1.3000 first level to watch, then 1.2943

On no Brexit deal risk can go to 1.26000 according to HSBC

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1273 (100 DMA), 1280 (10 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo),

Support strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo), 1253 (200 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US NFPs – 90k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev; 2.5% y/y

Despite Americans filling less for unemployment benefits

Hurricanes impact still casting a shadow over labour market

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 9 – US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap

Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly

Europe opening mixed

ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job?

Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected

Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability

But economists predict Fed pausing…

Equities

Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

Nestle taking over Blue Bottle Coffee

Low commodity prices make CNOOC stop a feasibility study of a LNG terminal in BC

Oil price above USD 50 bringing stability to US shale

Upcoming Trump trade shadow and tax deal making US small caps rally

France expects other EU members to join the tax fight against online companies like Amazon, Google

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% vs 2.19% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.40% yesterday

GBPUSD

BoE surprisingly very hawkish yesterday, opening the door to 1.3500

If USD takes a hit after today’s retail sales, can march higher towards 1.4000

Despite heavy short specs betting on Brexit mess

Platina

In case of risk off mood, can do much better than gold

As it trades at huge discount to it

Data/events

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC – not expecting anything special

Fed is on the way to start USD 10 bln tapering as of Oct 1

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 21, 2017 - Market Update (China A-shares in MSCI, Oil dropping, Energy stocks on negative but getting closer to attractive, EUR down on risk off this time, Geopolitical risks ongoing, Queen's speech)

Short recap

Asia – risk off with miners, energy and banks in red

China shares slightly higher as MSCI decision was largely priced in

Europe opening lower

Oil dropping like a stone on rising Libya and US rig production, while OPEC not able to cut more

And rebalance the market, officially entering the bearish territory

Japan facing declining domestic demand and labour shortage, result of aging population

North Korea testing nukes again?

Be aware of still on going geopolitical risks: Qatar, Saudis, Syria, Russia, North Korea and Trump’s reaction

S&P likely to cut UK rating (Brexit – short time, high risks)

Equities

China A-shares included in MSCI Emerging Markets index (to add 222 stocks)

Full inclusion can take 9+ years due to size, access, capital flow restrictions…etc.

Initial weight of 0.73%, when fully completed, China would represent 20% of the index

Thus USD 340 bln of a flow in

Near future market to expect up to USD 18 bln (until May/Aug 2018)

Proving China is getting more internationally integrated

Energy stocks still negative view on falling oil prices but…

…may be getting closer to attractive levels

Huge risks are credit events as industry copes with high debt (still growing) versus lower operating income

Comment from last week as a reminder:

“Resources stocks to offer an interesting value

In particular energy but need some credit events and cleaning within the space

Canadian Natural Resources, AltaGas, Roxgold can be looked at”

Novartis having advantage over vision treatment from Regenerom Pharmaceuticals

Aviva dropping its exposure to tobacco companies

Apple fighting with Qualcomm over chip license, saying they are invalid

Ford to relocate part of Focus production to China (a bit of opposite to Trump wishes)

Boeing very positive on 737 and demand growth

Banks to pick a new alternative to LIBOR

Huge valuation gap between DM’s techs and their peers from EM space

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.16%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

Fed hike priced at 21% (Sep) and 43% (Dec)

EZ credit spreads hitting lows seen back in 2014

On chasing yields in corps and lower rating issues, thus redirecting flows from developed markets

EURUSD

This time risk off should be negative on EUR

As the market may reduce positions/risk-on flows to EZ assets

And prefer USD and JPY

Saw profit taking and liquidation in EUR crosses

Only breaking 1.1179 (10 DMA) can negate the trend lower

Support at 1.1120/30, 1.1100 and then 1.1067 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Resistance at 111.81 (Ichimoku), 100 DMA at 111.82

With large offers from 111.85

Support at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo), then 111.00 with stops below

50 DMA at 111.11, 200 DMA at 110.80

Large expiring options between 111.25-30

Importers likely looking to buy dips towards 110.00

While exporters to sell above 111.00

GBPUSD

Heavy with line in the sand at 1.2500

1.2629 (100 DMA) and 1.2552 (200 DMA)

Bids ahead of 1.2600, stops seen below

NZDUSD - 0.7100 in sight if no hawkish surprise from RBNZ

EURJPY – 122.50 attractive

Data/Events

Brexit - Queen’s speech 1030 GMT, later to be discussed what may usually take up to 5 days

GE’s Schauble speaking

ECB non-monetary meeting

BOJ’s Kuroda speaking

Thu

EU Summit

Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Bullard (1515 GMT), Mester (1640 GMT), Powell (1815 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 9, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening highe but correcting

Risk on or Risk off now?

ECB sees higher grow, lower inflation (2017-19), risks balanced

No further rate cuts but also no change in policy, no taper talk at all

Trump survived Comey’s testimony as nothing was revealed

North Korea playing with fire again

US labor market keeps shrinking

Equities

ECB’s very dovish stance to further support EZ equities (rates lower for longer)

ECB boosting peripheral assets on the back of some bubbles in the core

Especially peripheral financials to benefit

Deutsche Bank can not share information about Trump’s financial dealings/ties with Russia

Credit Suisse to say thank you 1.5k employees in London

Julius Bear hit by soccer bribery issue

EU banking to face consolidation as the weaker institutions (due to negative ECB rates)

Will be target by their stronger peers (case of Santander acquiring Banco Popular)

UK financials to suffer on elections outcome/Brexit talks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - slowly moving higher

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25% - slowly moving lower on very dovish ECB, no rush to tighten policy at all

UK yields moving higher on after election mess

DXY

Lately seen too much dovishness about FOMC what may change with Comey off the table

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Very dovish ECB to keep pressure on EUR

But had no impact on EUR yesterday likely due to capital flows to EU assets

Mega-option expiries today to anchor-bracket (according to Reuters):

1.1100 E8.7 bln, 1.1150-60 2.64 bln, 1.1185 1 bln, 1.1200-10 1.56 bln

Also 1.1220-25 1.4 bln, 1.1250 4.07 bln, 1.1270-75 714 mln, 1.1300 1.17 bln

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1227 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Likely to focus on 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo) ahead of 1.1062 (50% Fibo) and 1.1009/00 level (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy resistance at 110.47 (200 DMA), 110.50 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Decent support from options around 110.00 area (USD 2.38 bln expiring)

GBPUSD

Upside limited on election results and Brexit talks

Brexit talks are messy but after elections will be very messy

Putting further pressure along with a massive current account deficit on GBP

In other words 1.2500 and even 1.2000 can be reached easily

Support at 1.2688 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2618 (100 DMA) and 1.2576 (200 DMA)

…but getting the soft Brexit will be GBP positive

EURGBP

0.8850 in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (61.8% Fibo) and descending trendline

Upcoming Data/Events

ECB’s Linde (1030 GMT)

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – China PPI correlated to PCE, lower number having any implications for Fed next week?

Lower PPI means reflation trade is fading away

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Oil was heavily hit by strong rise in US inventories and products amid OPEC efforts to cut production/supply

According to Comey’s prepared statement Trump asked him to drop an investigation of Flynn

But nothing new what would surprise markets

Markets getting ready for ECB, Comey, UK elections and Qatar/N. Korea mess

Canada to boost defence spending as US is less reliable

I like this one too as many countries used to take US defence umbrella for cheap money and are not happy with Trump now

Equities

Banco Popular rescue scheme can be use for Italian banks as well

Delphi Automotive partnering with Transdev Group in the field of shuffle service

Apple working to shorten repair times

BlackBerry out with car computer system

Goldman Sachs to increase deposit rates

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Support at 96.44 (38.2% Fibo) holding

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo)

EURUSD

Recouped the losses after inflation downgrade leak yesterday

As market still believes in hawkish ECB

Resistance at 1.1284, then 1.1300

Offers towards 1.1300 (option barrier), likely lots of stops above

Support at 1.1230 (10 DMA), then 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo)

Expiring options at 1.1200 (EUR 1.7 bln)

Tomorrow we have heavy expiries both below and above 1.1300

USDJPY

110.00 important with heavy option expiries tomorrow too

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Resistance at 110.44 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD 

Still holding well despite upcoming Brexit talks

1.2974 in focus followed by 1.3046

With stops sitting above 1.3050 and 1.3100

Support at 1.2802 (50 DMA), then 1.2768

Stops sitting below these levels

Should see a relief rally after Conservative win

But to fade later as we refocus on Brexit talks

EURGBP

0.8786 and 0.8850 may be in sight

Gold

Resistance at 1300, then at 1308

Support at 1286 (76.4% Fibo)

Upcoming Data/Events

G20 meeting

ECB meeting – getting grow but where is the inflation?

Draghi being alone but inflation data from EZ, US and JP suggest ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

QE exit likely touched a bit with no precise dates

New staff predictions for 2017-19 to be released

Overall, Draghi will have top dovish performance while bit of admitting of a small shift

Sep meeting to be critical with respect to forward guidance

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1400 GMT)

Prepared remarks for semi-official hearing  link

'I need loyalty, I expect loyalty'

"I didn't move, speak, or change my facial expression in any way during the awkward silence that followed."

If Comey doesn’t reveal anything new at the hearing, markets should take it as a risk on and USD to benefit

Overall little impact on markets

UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

Not the UK elections count but Brexit talks

2100 GMT -  Exit polls

2200 GMT – First districts counted

02-0400 GMT – decisive amount of districts counted

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 31, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on better steel industry performance that pushed China factory activity higher

Europe opening mixed

Trump's head of communication is leaving – who knows why?

Wouldn’t be better if Trump has left and all the other staff members stay? The problem is solved then…

USDCNH down as overnight funding rising

EU Commission proposing EMU gov debt securitization (thus packaging debt of different countries together)

After GE refused the idea of Eurobonds

Equities

Vivendi closer to controlling Telecom Italia on EU antitrust approval

Struggling IT banks Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca – one of the options is to close them if no state aid solution is agreed on

LSE buying bond data and index business from Citi (USD 685 mln)

Amazon above USD 1000 watermark to attract more buyers

As analyst expect another 10% push higher on average

Gilead Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline go tough in HIV drugs

Goldman Sachs bought USD 2.8 bln bonds of Petroleos de Venezuela bonds at discount

BlackRock CEO – US financial markets “probably fully priced in” and Q2 earnings could dissappoint

Few words on stocks…

Some argue that stock prices are too high but after considering the slow pace of interest rates rise, they are reasonable for the time being. Of course, staying vigilant is important but some sectors like mining or Japanese equities (trading at 20% discount to US peers) may be of interest. Earnings are solid, still favorable to be investing in stocks based on earnings performance, few unknowns on the horizon like North Korea, Trump, China growth or possible snap elections in Italy as we head to quiet summer period.

So what’s next? Well, the ECB’s possible wording adjustment in June and then Fed’s 3^rd rate hike and taper in H2.

HP to report the slide in earnings amid the push towards more focussed strategy and data center hardware business

Palo Alto Networks to report lower profit despite fast-growing cyber security industry. In case of the company, the competition bites.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

Brainard dovish on soft inflation (thus pushing Trys yields lower) but expecting rate hike pretty soon

EURUSD

Month end flows likely visible

Closing below 1.1140/55 range the 1.1000 is in sight

As the next likely 1.0840

1.1000 – growing in importance

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Expiring options around 1.1150 level, towards 1.1200 and large at 1.1250

USDJPY

Resistance at 111.00

Next 50 DMA at 111.21 and 50% Fibo at 111.24

200 DMA at 110.20 – a pretty strong support right above 110.00 level

GBPUSD

Polls changing the game and potentially election outcome for May

As she may not be able to form the government alone what in turn would weaken UK’s negotiation position in Brexit talks

1.2775 is the next to watch, followed by 200/100 DMA at 1.2586/1.2573 levels

Data

EZ: Flash CPI

Core CPI should move back close to 0.8% level (market expectation 1.0%) vs 1.2% prior

CPI expected at 1.5% vs 1.9% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (tentative)

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure (0720 GMT), Lautenschlaeger (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT), Williams (2330 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – hike probability was at 89% after yesterday’s data. If data supportive, we may see one hike in June, then in Sept followed by balance sheet reduction announcement in Dec

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia started in red but turned to green as oil recovered a bit

Europe opening higher

ECB officials see stimulus measures as appropriate in the light of low inflation pressures

Beige book – economy modest to moderate growth, inflation in check, lack of sufficient low-skilled workers and issues with workers fluctuation

Akzo Nobel struggling with pushy take over bid from PPG

Rio Tinto stays positive despite drop in iron production and lower prices

Bombardier upheld by court, Ontario can not cancelled the train order

AstraZeneca looking to deliver in immune/oncology field

Keystone XL pipeline not an easy deal for TransCanada despite Trump support

As farmers in Nebraska may bring more clouds

BlackRock benefiting from higher volumes in ETFs

While short of revenue estimate

FTSE 100 testing lows despite Europe higher

Earnings season

US corporates doing well

Morgan Stanley with higher bond trading than Goldman Sachs

Proving that Goldman is loosing the market share

Today:

Visa – should benefit from higher volume but FX conversions may hurt

Philip Morris – should benefit from better sales of cigarettes and their alternatives

Verizon – results to be effected by strong competition in wireless and Yahoo acquisition

Bonds

Investors still sitting in bonds ahead of FR elections

And keeping the yields low

GE-FR spread hit the high of 79 bps

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

FX

DXY – close to key levels

Support at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), 99.00 rising trendline and 200 DMA (98.97)

USDJPY – close to support at 108.50

Below 200 DMA at 108.86

And descending trendline

EURUSD – support at 1.0706 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: 1.0750, 1.0760/70 (descending triangle trendline), 1.0830 (Feb high), 1.0840 (200 DMA + descending trendline)

FR elections to set the direction as triangle is closing

GBPUSD – Is it heading to 1.3000/35 ?

French election the crucial test

If market positive outcome (Macron to second round, Le Pen disappointing)

Sterling may benefit

Commodities

Oil dropped yesterday on build up in gasoline inventories and smaller drop in US stockpiles

Refinery demand strong = lower inventories of oil

But refineries producing lots of gasoline = stocks rising as gasoline demand is low

Drop was also supported by removing of risk premiums as some geopolitical risks faded off

Oil market not to go higher for now

Short side speculators driving the market overall

Resistance USD 51.50 (50.0% Fibo)

Support USD 49.60 (61.8% Fibo)

Data

US: Initial Jobless Claims – to stay close to lows

US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing – likely to ease further

Powell (Fed) speaking at 1200 GMT

Carney (BoE) speaking at 1530 GMT

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opened mixed

GBP up yesterday as market speculates that snap elections can remove the political uncertainty

And give a stronger mandate for May in Brexit talks

Pence – NK to expect an overwhelming and effective response

China shadow banking back at full speed

China eased capital flow controls

Foreign investment in Canada hitting high of CAD 39 bln on M&A

Geopolitical events and upcoming French election driving investors to safe heavens (gold, bonds)

FTSE 100 below recent lows on stronger GBP

BMW see China sales to grow 10% in 2017 while globally should rise 5-5.5%

Credit Suisse still in a clash with its shareholders over top execs bonuses

Earnings season

Goldman Sachs disappointed on trading revenue what impacted markets yesterday

Lower trading activity was to blame as the bank doesn’t benefit from lending as competitors do or additional trading related business.

Is Goldman Sachs loosing a market share?

Morgan Stanley – expecting positive surprise on more active bond trading and cost cutting

American Express – expecting a negative surprise due to competition margin squeeze and rising costs

BlackRock – more than profit report markets will scrutinize cost cutting and reorganization plans

Especially at active stock picking division

Others: Qualcomm, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, eBay, U.S. Bancorp

Bonds

10-yr Bund yield at 0.16%

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

Touched 2.1629% - the lowest since Nov 2016 elections

The area of support is around 2.1346% (38.2% Fibo)

The levels around/below 2.20% may be a good place to start to sell bonds

But the appetite for safety stays strong for now

Don’t forget about Fed hiking and trimming bond portfolio

George (Fed) supporting bond taper this year

June hiking priced at 43%

EURUSD daily – getting crowded

GBPUSD daily – no risks of Brexit negotiations removed

More to go? Will the 1.2800 hold? How long?

The move occurred on very thin liquidity

After surprise announcement

Data

EZ: CPI – no surprise expected, should stay in line

Beige Book (Fed)

Hansson (ECB) speaking (0800 GMT)

Coeure (ECB) speaking (1200 GMT)

Praet (ECB) speaking (1430 GMT)

Rosengren (Fed) speaking (1630 GMT)

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More