Oct 6, 2017 - Market Update (Biz moving out making Catalonian politicians to think twice as Quebec is a nice example, NFPs & DXY - Good number Ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that, EURUSD watching 1.1662 & 1.1615/05, USDJPY ready to test 113.25 & 113.37, Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation/debt)

Short recap

Asia up, inspired by US stocks printing new highs on tax reform hopes

EU opening higher

Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation and unsustainable debt

IMF still supports accommodative policy from ECB, BoJ

Italian CB asking ECB to soften bad-loan plans

ECB to put legal restrictions on ICOs

Bitcoin may fall to their jurisdiction anyway

But ICOs is a more securities area than monetary

Monday - US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Spain to issue decree enabling firms to move their legal bases out of Catalonia easily

Catalonian politicians should think twice about independence as history of Quebec referendums shows. The QC voters scarred businesses in 1980 & 1995 so much, that  Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Sun Life Financial moved to Toronto. Toronto also replaced Montreal as the most populous city in Canada later on.

Equities

IBEX witnessed a correction yesterday

And Catalan leaders may soften the stance as business is moving out

E.g. biggest Catalan bank Sabadell moved HQ to Alicante with immediate effect

Boeing-JetBlue should be out with a small hybrid-electric plane in 2022

Aramco’s IPO in 2018 on track

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

DXY

NFPs likely to have a very low negative impact on USD as tax reform moves on

Good number ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that

Resistance at 94.02 (23.6% Fibo), 94.41 (100 DMA)

Support at 93.20 (10 DMA), 92.77 (50 DMA)

EURUSD

Leverage names were selling from around 1.1700

Resistance at 1.1708 (200 WMA), 1.1714, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1762 (10 DMA), 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA)

Support at 1.1662, 1.1615, critical 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1594 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Breaking recent highs may open the door to go above 113.00

With resistance at 113.25 followed by 113.57, then 114.49

Support at 112.57 (10 DMA), 111.92 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD

Cable under pressure from May’s weak position within her party

1.3000 first level to watch, then 1.2943

On no Brexit deal risk can go to 1.26000 according to HSBC

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1273 (100 DMA), 1280 (10 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo),

Support strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo), 1253 (200 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US NFPs – 90k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev; 2.5% y/y

Despite Americans filling less for unemployment benefits

Hurricanes impact still casting a shadow over labour market

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 9 – US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

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