July 31, 2017 - Market Update (JPY of interest as safe heaven after CHF moving, MSCI not happy with Chinese suspended companies, Trys yield lower on softer GDP, Volkswagen not in a rush to sell Ducati, JP fund managers keep trimming equity exposure)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Trump & Abe talked North Korea

JP fund managers kept decreasing equity holdings in July, especially North American assets

JP-US may discuss trade and currency as a one package

JPY may be of interest as a safe heaven choice after CHF is moving on ECB normalization

Equities

MSCI warned Chinese companies being suspended for trading for too long are at risk of getting excluded from index

Volkswagen not in a such a rush to sell Ducati and Renk

Audi going more green with EUR 10 bln cost cuts to fund green technologies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.2.28% up from 2.30% Friday

Yields lower on the back of softer GDP figure and negative revision of Q1 GDP

10-yr Bund yield at 0.54% down from 0.53% Friday

Cleared earlier losses after higher CPI print from German

Greek 5-yr notes issued at 4.625%, lower then last time when they had traded

COT report (as of last Tue)

EUR longs at 91k vs 91k previously, no change

GBP shorts at 26k vs 16k previously, increased

JPY shorts at 121k (USD 14 bln) vs 127k previously, decreased

EURUSD

Market still skewed to go higher but serious caution is warranted

To watch this week’s EZ CPI, US PCE and NFPs as there is an interest to go short

But if we get lackluster prints the short squeeze is close

Close below 1.1653 (10 DMA) would suggest slowing momentum

Support 1.1621 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1615, then 1.1580

But breaking the 1.1600 can open the door to 1.1300

Resistance 1.1750, 1. 1776 (high), 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Asia saw some JPY buying, lower US yields in play too

Getting support from Ichimoku

Bids sitting at 110.50, more at 110.00 (around option barrier)

Stops likely below 110.00 and above 110.80, then naturally above 111.00

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Gold

Resistance at 1274 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1261 (61.8% Fibo) ad raising trend line

Data/events

Wed

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jacskon Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opened mixed

GBP up yesterday as market speculates that snap elections can remove the political uncertainty

And give a stronger mandate for May in Brexit talks

Pence – NK to expect an overwhelming and effective response

China shadow banking back at full speed

China eased capital flow controls

Foreign investment in Canada hitting high of CAD 39 bln on M&A

Geopolitical events and upcoming French election driving investors to safe heavens (gold, bonds)

FTSE 100 below recent lows on stronger GBP

BMW see China sales to grow 10% in 2017 while globally should rise 5-5.5%

Credit Suisse still in a clash with its shareholders over top execs bonuses

Earnings season

Goldman Sachs disappointed on trading revenue what impacted markets yesterday

Lower trading activity was to blame as the bank doesn’t benefit from lending as competitors do or additional trading related business.

Is Goldman Sachs loosing a market share?

Morgan Stanley – expecting positive surprise on more active bond trading and cost cutting

American Express – expecting a negative surprise due to competition margin squeeze and rising costs

BlackRock – more than profit report markets will scrutinize cost cutting and reorganization plans

Especially at active stock picking division

Others: Qualcomm, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, eBay, U.S. Bancorp

Bonds

10-yr Bund yield at 0.16%

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

Touched 2.1629% - the lowest since Nov 2016 elections

The area of support is around 2.1346% (38.2% Fibo)

The levels around/below 2.20% may be a good place to start to sell bonds

But the appetite for safety stays strong for now

Don’t forget about Fed hiking and trimming bond portfolio

George (Fed) supporting bond taper this year

June hiking priced at 43%

EURUSD daily – getting crowded

GBPUSD daily – no risks of Brexit negotiations removed

More to go? Will the 1.2800 hold? How long?

The move occurred on very thin liquidity

After surprise announcement

Data

EZ: CPI – no surprise expected, should stay in line

Beige Book (Fed)

Hansson (ECB) speaking (0800 GMT)

Coeure (ECB) speaking (1200 GMT)

Praet (ECB) speaking (1430 GMT)

Rosengren (Fed) speaking (1630 GMT)

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 2, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia printed new highs after open

EU opened lower

Trump having financial difficulties with building Mexican wall

Fed speakers massaging the market with hawkish comments to get ready for potential Mar 15 hike

Last one was Brainard who turned hawkish from dovish making the March hike priced at 70% (a level Fed is comfortable to move)

After yesterday’s PCE important Yellen and Fisher on Friday and US NFPs next Friday

If all goes hawkish the March hike is a done deal

Potential risk is development around Dutch and French elections

EURUSD can soon visit the 1.0400/1.0350 levels

USDJPY 117.00

China recently announced measures to open FX derivatives market for bond investors for hedging purposes

But foreigners seem to be very cautious due to capital controls still being in place

Oil under pressure from record inventories in US

Stocks in a strong bull market, caution warranted

Snap Inc (owner of Snapchat) completed IPO raising USD 3.4 bln

Bit of question marks around whether the company will make it as a Facebook did or will follow the dead end road as Twitter does

As it faces the usual social media challenge of converting the popularity into cash

Apple – another patent case against the company was dismissed by US judge

Bunds relaxed their safe heaven status and trade below 165 with yield 0.29%

10 yr Bund yield at 0.29%

10 yr US Trys yield at 2.45% (range of 2.30-2.52%)

EZ core bonds face headwinds from positive outcome of EZ election

And potential ECB tapering. Please bear in mind that tapering is expected to impact EZ core bonds only, spiking their yields.

Corporates do well, spreads with cores contracting

Enjoying equity rally, strong buying on positive developments

EM bonds doing well as well despite Fed hike last year and upcoming hikes this year

Still see strong buying flows

Data

Thu:

EZ: Unemployment – no change expected

EZ: CPI Estimate – to move to 2% (highest since 2013)

US: Initial Jobless Claims – to remain stable at low levels

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Next Friday:

US: NFPs

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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