Sep 22, 2017 - Market Update (China downgrade on still fast credit growth, NoKo a new H-bomb test while Kim is in NY, Stronger EUR weighting on DAX, Apple under pressure - a new target at 142?, May's perfect time of Brexit speech at 1900 GMT, Germany voting on Sunday, Gold at 1295 - which way?)

Short recap

Asia in red on NoKo and S&P downgrade of China (outlook stable) and Hong Kong (outlook negative). S&P not comfortable with Chinese still strong credit growth

Europe opening lower

Speculation that NoKo will test powerful hydrogen bomb in Pacific

PBOC asked Chinese banks to stop cooperating with NoKo

Equities

Lufthansa to absorb largest part of AirBerlin’s assets

While easyJet should get some too

Stronger EUR weighting on DAX

12 500 to be tested again

B&N Bank carrying a USD 6 bln hole on its balance sheet

Apple still under the pressure as investors question the new product range

If not comfortable, can eventually test 142 level (200 DMA)

Support at 153 (50.0% Fibo/100 DMA), 150 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 156 (38.2% Fibo), 157 (50 DMA), 159 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25% vs 2.27% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% vs 0.45% yesterday

DXY

Heavy on USDJPY decline

Still not able to detach from current congestion zone

After FOMC pullback much stronger then in EURUSD

Why not following through and moving higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

If decisive move above 1.2000, we may see more gains

Strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next levels 1.1819 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1941 (10 DMA), 1.1945 (55 HMA)

Large options expiring at 1.1925 (EUR 1 bln), 1.1950-75 (EUR 1.9 bln), 1.2000 (EUR 1.4 bln)

With more above 1.2000 level that can play in

Is the 1.2500 a target before correcting below parity like in 1998?

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.18 (200 DMA), 112.71

Offers starting at 112.50 on

Expiring option (USD 1.7 bln) at 112.00 may attract the cross

Support at 111.60 Ichimoku, 111.43 (23.6% Fibo), descending trendline

Gold

Support at 1295, 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels for further medium term direction

Bullish while above daily demand...

Data/events

ECB’s Coeure (0715 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (0800 & 0930 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1115 & 1315 GMT)

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1730 GMT)

Brexit – a major speech from May (1900 GMT)

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking to reset the talks?

Rumours UK ready to pay EUR 20 bln a year for market access

EU’s Barnier to respond shortly after May’s speech

Sunday – German elections

How strong the grand coalition will be?

Sep 26 Yellen speaking about inflation and monetary policy

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sept 12, 2017 - Market Update (Risk off on NoKo, Irma, higher bond yields, change in CNY policy, Cryptos banned but PBOC supporting blockchain, Regulation to come, Samsung cheering over Note 8, Apple's new iPhone 8 with USD 1000 price tag?, Gold prone to correct to 1300 if no risks off, Japanese stocks ok as long as USDJPY above 108.00)

Short recap

Asia printing 10-yr highs

Europe opening higher

Jump in bond yields supporting risk on

China likely to change policy in order to avoid quick appreciation of CNY

New milder sanctions against NoKo approved by UN

No NoKo reaction yet, markets relieved a bit

Brexit repeal vote approved, a huge relief for May

Some ECB officials pretty hawkish yesterday but no policy change indication

China’s ICO (crypto) ban targeting illegal activities only 

PBOC ok with blockchain technology as such

Equities

Samsung cheering the pre-orders for new Note 8 well beating Note 7 success

Volkswagen to invest EUR 20 bln into e-cars

Buying a new sunglasses? EU not happy with Luxottica-Essilor merger (EUR 46 bln)

Apple to show new iPhone 8 but what about the price of USD 1000 ?

Equifax facing hard time after getting hacked

Cancer immunotherapy an option?

BP goes IPO with some US assets

Citi down 15% with trading revenue

Societe Generale selling 49% of its Chinese AM to Warburg Pincus

Japanese stocks should do well as long USDJPY stays above 108.00

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.13%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%s

DXY

Short term strength in USD here as US yields, stocks

Popped up yesterday but need to sustain the gains today too

After showing the hammer at the low last week is now creating a morning star

Fed hawks on the crossroad as they need to reassess the impact of hurricanes on potential Dec hike

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 89.00 area

Gold

May be prone to correct to 1300 on NoKo, Irma risk off and higher US yields

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 8, 2017 - Market Update (North Korea/Irma - unhedged over the weekend?, Dovish Draghi but no indications, 10-yr Trys yield dipping below may bring more declines, EURUSD - 1.2000 a fair value, 1.2100 to hurt sentiment and DAX, Platina to catch up Gold rally, WTI at USD 55 unsustainable, BMW taking e-cars seriously, Amazon in a need of 2nd US HQ)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

ECB kept its policy unchanged

Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any clear indication on what’s next

Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and economy doing well

Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis

Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD

North Korea (important public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another missile test) and Irma risks present – going unhedged to the weekend?

Equities

Eicher Motors interested in Ducati (USD 2 bln)

BMW firing on all cylinders to start mass production of e-cars

To compete with Tesla with 12 models by 2025

EURUSD at 1.2100 will be noticed by EZ stocks

Likely to change the sentiment, hitting DAX

An opportunity from Harvey/Irma as insurance (-12%), leisure stocks were hit yesterday

Insurance down 12%, while during Katarina declined 5% only

Hedging by S&P 500 makes sense

Amazon kicking out competition among cities in US

By announcing plans to build 2^nd HQ (USD 5 bln)

Apple likely to face supply shortage and delays in new iPhone production

Eli Lilly to cut off 8% of workforce

JPMorgan making consumer, retail and internet divisions to work closer

Best (Alibaba behind) launching IPO in US (USD 930 mln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.04% - dipped lower in Asia trading

The dip below 2% may see more declines

10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%

Investors unloading property bonds linked to Texas (hit by hurricane Harvey)

DXY

Below 2016 low at 91.88, closing there today?

If it does, more USD weakness is likely with target around 89.00 area

Close above may confirm the lows in USD

Lower capital demand, thus growing USD supply has negative effect on USD

Trump needs to deliver (tax reform for companies to increase investments) and Fed to hike to support dollar

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi but EUR higher…

As effects of higher EUR are offset by lower yields

1.2000 is the fair value based on models

Resistance at 1.2071

Market pricing first hike in June 2019

Area between 1.1850/1.2050 may be a new playground until FOMC and next ECB

USDJPY

Breaks 2017 low at 108.12

Heading to 105/106.00

Below 108.00 level looks attractive to Japanese investors

Gold/Platina

Resistance in sight at 1375/80 (Fibo 38.2%/2016 high)

Well supported by mix of low US yields, weak USDJPY, increasing amount of bonds trading at negative yield

Raising speculative positions and option hedging

Platina can catch up the gold rally soon, as it trades at discount

Oil

Harvey hit the oil biz in US and what about Irma that is stronger?

Decline in inventories offset by decline in production and refinery demand keep the oil rally in check

But getting to unsustainable levels with WTI getting closer to USD 55

Risk of correcting to USD 50

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 5, 2017 - Market Update (Very quiet in the markets…, North Korea making a storm?, Cryptos hit with Bitcoin & Ethereum down, JPY not what it used to be against Gold, EURUSD ready to correct if Draghi impresses, United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins, Air Berlin keeps flying for now)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening flat to slightly higher

Very quiet in the markets…

North Korea still an issue, preparing another launch before weekend (Sep 9 a holiday in NoKo) as it moves ICBM to the launch place

BRICS meeting going on in China, but China not taking any actions against NoKo

China the key player even if US, SoKo and JP decide to act

US pushing for new UN sanctions likely targeting Chinese banks doing biz with NoKo

Crypto currencies had a tough day yesterday after China banning the new issue (ICOs)

Bitcoin down 16%, likely more regulations coming

Hurricane Irma getting stronger

Fed Dec hike at 40%

JPY losing its safe haven status to gold on North Korea risks  link

Equities

More defensive stance warranted like higher exposure to utilities, telecom, health care, consumer staples or gold miners

Europe – more neutral after EUR rise, US more positive on USD decline

Volkswagen not selling Ducati (EUR 1.5 bln), at least for now

Air Berlin keeps flying with the help of GE government

United Technologies buying Rockwell Collins (USD 30 bln) – a nice shift in the aerospace supplier space

That is still fragmented, premium is above 7% (still low) what may attract other bidders

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.13% vs 2.16% yesterday

Yields to go lower, to be watched after US holiday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.37% vs 0.38% yesterday

EURUSD

Slight bid tone on NoKo tensions

If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area

And eventually correct further to 1.1400/1500 level

As a part of 4^th wave correction and Draghi impressing the market

Daily/Monthly RSI showing significant divergences

Monthly 23.6% Fibo at 1.1661, 38.2% Fibo at 1.1409

But overall little action before ECB

If Draghi doesn’t deliver 1.1950 is the next…

Resistance at 1.1950, 1.1980, 1.2070

Support at 1.1892 (55 HMA), 1.1892 (10 DMA), 1.1845 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

110.00 as a ceiling due to risks holds

Bias slightly lower with bids at 109.20/00

Institutionals may be buying on downside

Key support at 108.26

JPY/Gold – JPY is not a safe haven as it used to be

As it lags the rally in gold by huge margin

But only in current NoKo tensions when rockets fly over Japan

Gold

Entire metal space seems to be overbought

Resistance in sight at 1375

Strong support at 1300/10

Data/events

BRICS’ summit in China

Fed’s Brainard (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1630 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2300 GMT)

Thu

Mester (Fed)

Dudley (Fed)

ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low inflation vs still rising EUR

ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

Expecting dovish ECB with no hawkish surprise at all

Draghi to talk down EUR, if he delivers spot can move to 1.15/1600 territory

If not, the 1.1950 if the next…

Let’s get ready for low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)

Economic growth not impacted by strong EUR yet

Fri

Fed’s Harker

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Norway is getting out of everything but dollars, euros and pounds  link

To read as it is an interesting shift in Norwegian wealth fund strategy

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 4, 2017 - Market Update (UN meeting on North Korea, Little risk in FX world warranted, EU/China economies to cool down, FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer, Merger completed, new DowDuPont is alive, Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit, Bund yields may go again to zero, EURUSD - Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance, USDJPY - ceiling at 110.00, Gold - eying 1375)

Short recap

Asian in red on safe haven flow

Europe opening lower

US/CA Labor Day holiday today

UN Security Council to meet on North Korea

US Secretary of Defence Mattis joining Trump in his rhetoric (not a good sign)

Little risk in FX world warranted

Despite North Korean likely not to escalate situation further as it hit the ceiling with hydrogen bomb test (50 KT)

Oil supplies to North Korea likely to be cut off

Brexit no deal outcome at 25% probability

Moscovici (EU) – strong EUR not a threat to EZ firms

Trump looking to withdraw from free trade deal with South Korea

Another strong hurricane Irma creating

EU/China economies to cool down too after US growth eased

Equities

US stocks printed new highs on Fri

Volkswagen recalling 1.8 mln vehicles in China

FiatChrysler declining and takeover offer

Legend Hodlings buying 90% of Banque Internationale a Luxembourg (EUR 1.5 bln)

Dow and DuPont merger completed (USD 130 bln)

Historically, Sep not a perfect month for S&P 500 with most of the time ending in red

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.16% - finally picking up

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

Highly rated corporate bonds to benefit either from dovish ECB or escalation of tensions

As Bunds may hit again zero level yield range

COT report as of last Tue

EUR longs at 87k vs 88k week before – after hitting the high in EURUSD, spot moving lower could put additional pressure on long speculative positions and spark selling

JPY shorts at 69k vs 74k week before – USDJPY hitting the lows, some relief for JPY shorts may be in sight

GBP shorts at 52k vs 46k week before

Overall net short USD positions making new records since 2013

EURUSD

EUR may act as a safe haven currency, small bias higher

Attempts above 1.2000 to hit the heavy resistance

USD did well going to close despite a bit weaker NFPs

As the ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

If no geopolitical events, may revisit 1.1700/50 area

Resistance at 1.1910, 1.1980, 1.2071

Support at 1.1885 (55 DMA), 1.1878 (10 DMA), 1.1845 (23.6% Fibo)

Real yield differentials pointing to significantly overvalued EUR

USDJPY

Gap down after nuclear test recapped back later

110.00 a ceiling due to risks

Expiring option (USD 800 mln) at 110.00 to cap the flow as well

Gold

Well supported by general safe haven flows

On the back of North Korea, US-Russia diplomatic war, US debate over tax and debt ceiling

Topped by dovish Fed

Resistance in sight at 1375

Strong support at 1300/10

Data/events

ECB’s Mersch (0740 GMT)

BRICS’ summit starting today in China

Tue

Kashkari (Fed)

Kaplan (Fed)

Brainard (Fed)

Thu

Mester (Fed)

Dudley (Fed)

ECB – Draghi to address a strong growth and low inflation vs still rising EUR

ECB is very concerned about EURUSD level & pushing any taper talks to Dec

Expecting dovish ECB with no hawkish surprise at all

Draghi to talk down EUR

Let’s get ready for low yield for longer period (not only from ECB)

Economic growth not impacted by strong EUR yet

Fri

Harker (Fed)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 31, 2017 - Market Update (JPY of interest as safe heaven after CHF moving, MSCI not happy with Chinese suspended companies, Trys yield lower on softer GDP, Volkswagen not in a rush to sell Ducati, JP fund managers keep trimming equity exposure)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Trump & Abe talked North Korea

JP fund managers kept decreasing equity holdings in July, especially North American assets

JP-US may discuss trade and currency as a one package

JPY may be of interest as a safe heaven choice after CHF is moving on ECB normalization

Equities

MSCI warned Chinese companies being suspended for trading for too long are at risk of getting excluded from index

Volkswagen not in a such a rush to sell Ducati and Renk

Audi going more green with EUR 10 bln cost cuts to fund green technologies

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.2.28% up from 2.30% Friday

Yields lower on the back of softer GDP figure and negative revision of Q1 GDP

10-yr Bund yield at 0.54% down from 0.53% Friday

Cleared earlier losses after higher CPI print from German

Greek 5-yr notes issued at 4.625%, lower then last time when they had traded

COT report (as of last Tue)

EUR longs at 91k vs 91k previously, no change

GBP shorts at 26k vs 16k previously, increased

JPY shorts at 121k (USD 14 bln) vs 127k previously, decreased

EURUSD

Market still skewed to go higher but serious caution is warranted

To watch this week’s EZ CPI, US PCE and NFPs as there is an interest to go short

But if we get lackluster prints the short squeeze is close

Close below 1.1653 (10 DMA) would suggest slowing momentum

Support 1.1621 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1615, then 1.1580

But breaking the 1.1600 can open the door to 1.1300

Resistance 1.1750, 1. 1776 (high), 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Asia saw some JPY buying, lower US yields in play too

Getting support from Ichimoku

Bids sitting at 110.50, more at 110.00 (around option barrier)

Stops likely below 110.00 and above 110.80, then naturally above 111.00

Resistance 110.97 (61.8% Fibo)

Gold

Resistance at 1274 (76.4% Fibo)

Support at 1261 (61.8% Fibo) ad raising trend line

Data/events

Wed

Fed’s Mester (1600 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1930 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 173k exp

Aug 24-26 Jacskon Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 28, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia – saw some profit taking after risk on week

Europe opening lower

ECB no change in monetary policy

Draghi had a good showing, inflation not a worry, economy doing better

(5-yr forward inflation swaps above 1.6% indicating ECB still undershooting its inflation target)

Taper and rate hikes not a question of a foreseeable future

What may put additional pressure on EURUSD and close the Sunday’s gap up

New healthcare vote delayed again

Trump’s new trade war target is South Korea (kind of blindness in between the North Korea tensions…)

US and China say that North Korea situation can escalate if talks fail

Equities

Stocks too rich or too cheap?

Hard to say as the enormous QE stimulus is still here and rates are not at normal levels

S&P 500 trades at 18 times 2018 forward PE

S&P/TSX at 18 times 2018 PE

Deutsche Bank surprised but revenues are falling and trading is short of US peers performance

UBS benefited from trading and investment banking activities

Earnings season

Alphabet (mobile ads and YouTube), Amazon (well positioned), Intel, Microsoft, Ford doing very well

Exxon – market is looking at substantial rise in profits on cost cutting

Chevron – expecting company to by back to profit on refining and cost cutting

Others to report today: Colgate-Palmolive, General Motors, Goodyear, Imperial Oil (CA), Cameco (CA)

Bonds

Yields lower on risk off

Europe’s corps in high demand, credit spreads very low

May be the time to look elsewhere for better yield

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.30% (pretty nice jump in Bunds after Draghi yesterday)

EURUSD

Looking whether closing the week below Sunday’s open at 1.0889 (Reuters)

Support at 1.0850; 1.0834 (200 DMA) and 1.0820 (50% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo) and around 1.0950 (upper channel line)

1999 high at 1.0915

Options expiries and US GDP to drive the market

Data

EZ: Flash CPI – 1.8% exp. vs 1.5% prior; Core 1.0% exp. vs 0.7% prior

US: Advance GDP – expecting slowdown with 1.2% exp. vs 2.1% prior, but it is not alarming as it is a historical pattern. Important to watch business investments but here, we can eventually blame lacking Trump policies that create hesitation about capital investments

US: Chicago PMI

US: Uni of Michigan Sentiment index – looking higher

Fed speakers: Brainard (1715 GMT) and Harker (1830 GMT)

Upcoming

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher on positive expectations about US

Europe openig lower

Rumours – Trump dropped border tax ahead of tax reform release

To be reviewed later eventually

US getting ready military wise in South Korea

While top US officials and Senators met

UK opened to keep contributing to the EU budget (until 2020)

ECB may be on the route to change slightly wording at its Jun 8 meeting

As risk of negative outcome of FR elections is very unlikely

Still strong macro from US and earnings support bull market

NASDAQ hitting 6000

Companies in US adjusting their hiring plans of foreign nationals

As they fear of visas policy change, thus switching from temporary visas to recruiting more US based staff

Caterpillar very positive on China

Christian Dior likely to combine its activities with LVMH

McDonald’s said that labour market is tightening across all regions in US

Earnings season

Reporting today: United Technologies, PepsiCo, Boeing, P&G, Northrop Grumman, Amgen, PayPal, Twitter

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

USDJPY – Trump trade reviving?

Should benefit again if it does

EURUSD

Buyers stopped ahead of 1.0950 (slightly above is upper trendline of ascending channel)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo)

After FR elections seen unhedged capital flows to EZ stocks

Trump trade and tax reform details can change the picture

Commodities

Gold – coping with stocks, yields, JPY and Trump tax reform

But getting support from North Korea

Below descending trendline that acted as a support

Support at 200 DMA at 1255 and 1249 (50% Fibo),

Oil – still under pressure from uncertainty about OPEC’s ability to reduce production and rising US inventories

Bullish inventories can help oil higher

But nothing like lower oil and higher gasoline inventories

Production is lower but shipments continue at the same pace

Upcoming

Juncker and Barnier in London

US Gov shutdown still on the table

Trump’s tax package to be revealed:

Lowering corporate tax to 15% from 39.6%

Lowering tax on repatriation of profits to 10% from 35% (USD 2.6 tln sitting overseas)

Other measures for SMEs and self-employed

Apr 27 – ECB meeting – Draghi will be in the spotlight defending the QE continuation with taper may be around mid-2018

Will need to talk down the taper at an earlier stage

Would correspond to three year cycle as Fed had

To please the hawks likely small wording adjustment at Jun 8 meeting

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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