Apr 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher on positive expectations about US

Europe openig lower

Rumours – Trump dropped border tax ahead of tax reform release

To be reviewed later eventually

US getting ready military wise in South Korea

While top US officials and Senators met

UK opened to keep contributing to the EU budget (until 2020)

ECB may be on the route to change slightly wording at its Jun 8 meeting

As risk of negative outcome of FR elections is very unlikely

Still strong macro from US and earnings support bull market

NASDAQ hitting 6000

Companies in US adjusting their hiring plans of foreign nationals

As they fear of visas policy change, thus switching from temporary visas to recruiting more US based staff

Caterpillar very positive on China

Christian Dior likely to combine its activities with LVMH

McDonald’s said that labour market is tightening across all regions in US

Earnings season

Reporting today: United Technologies, PepsiCo, Boeing, P&G, Northrop Grumman, Amgen, PayPal, Twitter

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

USDJPY – Trump trade reviving?

Should benefit again if it does

EURUSD

Buyers stopped ahead of 1.0950 (slightly above is upper trendline of ascending channel)

Resistance at 1.0933 (61.8% Fibo)

After FR elections seen unhedged capital flows to EZ stocks

Trump trade and tax reform details can change the picture

Commodities

Gold – coping with stocks, yields, JPY and Trump tax reform

But getting support from North Korea

Below descending trendline that acted as a support

Support at 200 DMA at 1255 and 1249 (50% Fibo),

Oil – still under pressure from uncertainty about OPEC’s ability to reduce production and rising US inventories

Bullish inventories can help oil higher

But nothing like lower oil and higher gasoline inventories

Production is lower but shipments continue at the same pace

Upcoming

Juncker and Barnier in London

US Gov shutdown still on the table

Trump’s tax package to be revealed:

Lowering corporate tax to 15% from 39.6%

Lowering tax on repatriation of profits to 10% from 35% (USD 2.6 tln sitting overseas)

Other measures for SMEs and self-employed

Apr 27 – ECB meeting – Draghi will be in the spotlight defending the QE continuation with taper may be around mid-2018

Will need to talk down the taper at an earlier stage

Would correspond to three year cycle as Fed had

To please the hawks likely small wording adjustment at Jun 8 meeting

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round (Macron/Le Pen – 60/40)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom