Showing posts with label #riskoff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #riskoff. Show all posts

Friday, 9 February 2018

Feb 9, 2018 - Market Update


European equities seem to be in a quite and cautious mood today after yesterday's red day. US futures are up a what gives additional comfort to the market is also the calm in FX. Bonds are getting slightly sold but yields are not moving very high.



It is an interesting situation when stocks got sold off heavily over the last two weeks but bonds and FX were not significantly impacted. In other words, there was no direct rotation out of stocks to bonds, what may be seen as a profit taking in stocks only as bonds barely moved.

Bond yields remain elevated but not spiking or moving rapidly higher. JPY is a proxy of safe heaven flows is offered today but seeing a bit of unrest in EM space. Let's see what will come up with US open and where we close tonight.

At he moment, despite lots of cautious about another wave of algos and systematic investors selling to adjust to their portfolios based on risk/volatility inputs we see currently S&P 500 around 2600/10 level and DAX around 12 100/200 as good points to re-enter the market to benefit from FOMO flows that may eventually start even today.

But bear in mind to manage your risk appropriately also in the light of upcoming weekend, especially if we do not see the US stocks moving higher on FOMO flows. If that happens, we can also get ready for another Monday risk off sentiment behaviour as there is still lots of moving sitting in selling volatility related products.



Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!



Mr Hawk






DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Friday, 26 May 2017

May 26, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia down as OPEC disappointed the market by not delivering what traders hoped for
Cut extended for 9 and not 12 months, expected deeper cuts
Oil was down 5% and still heavy today
Europe opening lower


Risk off continues on OPEC, lower yields and dovish Bullard (inflation worrisome, Fed aggressive)
Looking forward to balance sheet reduction in H2

Trump’s son-in-law who is a part of his senior advisers team is under FBI investigation over Russia
USD 20 bln Blackstone-Saudis deal underlies how important Blackstone is for Kushner’s family
As they borrowed from the company few hundred mlns and company worked on their NY mansion

Moody’s - China not able to curb the debt, risk of another downgrade
China to change Yuan fixing formula to adjust for lower volatility
China not to pursue a competitive devaluation

UK consumers hit by rising prices
UK’s May falling in polls, GBP down

Equities

Full “bail in” talk of regional banks Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca
Denied by officials
GM facing a lawsuit over emissions
Ford behind GM in new models
Canadian banks don’t see the threat to their business from fallout of Home Capital

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%


Fed funds rate vs EURUSD  link


EURUSD

Offers around 1.1250-60
Still lots of bid below
1.1314 (76.4% Fibo)
1.1128 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids towards 111.50, more towards 111.00 – range with heavy option expiries as well
Offers may be present going to 112.00
50 DMA at 111.25 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore
Inventories highest since 2004 (136 mln tonnes)
Important support 450

Data,

G7 meeting (growth, employment, security)
ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate
June 8 – ECB meeting
June 8 – UK elections
June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Friday, 19 May 2017

May 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed on strong US data but political turmoil
Europe opening higher


Risk off only one day
China to normalize relations with South Korea
Brazil – after last year’s impeachment the new president Temer in the same shoes
ECB speakers defended the status quo, no clear path yet
Trump mess may push markets to reprice the risk
Trump visiting Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Aramco to sign business contracts
US job market keeps tightening
NAFTA talks to start in Aug
HF managers refocussing abroad as Trump trade fades

Equities

Bain Capital eyeing Toshiba
Deutsche Bank rebuilding reputation by asking former execs to participate financially at covering the bill they left for misconduct
Danone betting on synergies (WhiteWave) and cost cutting
Alibaba announced USD 6 bln buyback
Bombardier facing a probe on price dumping, action initiated by Boeing

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24% (important 2.15% as an indicator of risk)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0900 GMT), Constancio (1200 GMT) speaking
Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT), Willaims (1740 GMT) speaking

Iran presidential elections - impact on security and oil production
Raisi an orthodox cleric, promoting isolation
Rouhani globalist who negotiated the nuclear deal

May 24 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1330 GMT)
May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting
June 8 – ECB meeting
June 8 – UK elections
June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)
June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike at 65%


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
  

Tuesday, 4 April 2017

Apr 4, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia on a safe side
Europe opening higher


Risk off ongoing (Russia, FR elections (GE-FR spread widens to 67 bps) – USDJPY declined and we see preference for liquidity
EURUSD not picking up as peripheral spreads are widening due to ECB lowering bond purchases

Fed’s Dudley not comfortable with student debt that may have a negative effect on spending and ability to buy houses

S&P 500 support at 2142 (50 DMA) and 2350 level
Hyundai and Kia decreased the production in their China based factories on the back of rising competition from local automakers and tensions between both countries
Imagination Technologies down 70% yesterday as Apple decided to end the cooperation
Danone buying US based WhiteWave Foods that produces organic food
Mylan facing a new class action lawsuit
Canadian SNC-Lavalin interested in UK based WS Atkins (GBP 2.1 bln)
Linde considering to use all means to get the merger with Praxair through
Akzo Nobel still not satisfied with PPGproposal

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%
10-yr Bunds yield at 0.28%
2-yr Bunds yield back to -0.80%

Gold higher as USD gets a bit weaker, drop in stocks and interest in bonds
Market positioning ahead of Trump-Xi meeting and after Russia bomb attack

Data

EU to make a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve
ECB Draghi speaking
Daniel Tarullo (Tue at 2030 GMT)
EZ: Retail sales expecting to head slightly higher
US: Factory orders to rebound after small dip in March

Wed:
FOMC Minutes

Thu:
ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)
ECB Minutes
Trump to meet Chinese president
Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:
US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:
Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2nd round


Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.


Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk



DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom