Nov 13, 2017 - Market Update (May on the way out, Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal/no deal, Alibaba on fire with global Singles' Day sales, Uber heading to IPO with Softbank getting closer to the deal, US inflation to show direction for yields, EURUSD back to range 1.1570/1.1670, Gold - long liquidation below 1280 level?)

Short recap

Asia in red as investors becoming cautious on ability of US lawmakers to work out the tax reform

Europe opening higher

South China Sea disputes on again

Upcoming 2-3 weeks will shape the form of Brexit deal

As May is under enormous pressure from her own political party to step down

While EU made it clear that UK needs to honor its commitments (in other words how much they will pay for divorce)

Meanwhile EU getting ready for no agreement with UK

As UK not open to offer any new divorce figure

Equities

Alibaba on fire with Singles’ Day sales up 39% y/y hitting USD 25 bln globally

Uber heading to IPO at certain point with Softbank getting closer to company with USD 10 bln deal

PSA to build cars in Algeria

Visa sees a cut in UK spending

Soros, Tepper, Einhorn, Icahn to issue a regulatory fillings Mon/Tue

A nice reading that will show the changes their stock/asset holdings

Earnings

Home Depot, Tencent, Cisco, Applied Materials, Target, Best Buy, Wal-Mart

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.39% vs 2.34% on Friday morning

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.37% on Friday morning

US CPI & US Retail sales on Wed two of last major data ahead of Dec Fed hike decision

Especially inflation will have significant impact on yields

EURUSD

Still consolidating, no decision on H&S

Consolidating above 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (200 HMA), 1.16256 (10 DMA)

And below 1.1649 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

What’s next? Any continuation of 1.1570-1.1670 range?

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Bids sitting below 113.25, larger seen at/below 113.00

Offers seen ahead of 114.00 with stops above

Resistance at 113.79 (10 DMA), 114.40/50

Support at 113.00, 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Back to mid-range also with the help of 4 mln ounces sell order on Friday

Ongoing no major upside interest can turn into longs liquidation below 1280

US bond yields higher having greater impact than potential delay in US tax reform or Brexit developments

Even the uncertainty in Middle East doesn’t seem to have a big impact for now

Resistance 1277 (10 DMA), 1278 (100 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1293 (50 DMA)

Support 1263 (61.8% Fibo/200 DMA)

 

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Constancio (0900 GMT)

ECB’s Nowotny (1600 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1745 GMT)

EU Foreign Council meeting

Tue

Fed’s Evans (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1000 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Bostic (1805 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 8, 2017 - Market Update (North Korea/Irma - unhedged over the weekend?, Dovish Draghi but no indications, 10-yr Trys yield dipping below may bring more declines, EURUSD - 1.2000 a fair value, 1.2100 to hurt sentiment and DAX, Platina to catch up Gold rally, WTI at USD 55 unsustainable, BMW taking e-cars seriously, Amazon in a need of 2nd US HQ)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

ECB kept its policy unchanged

Draghi stayed dovish, has not offered any clear indication on what’s next

Despite strong EUR pushing inflation lower and economy doing well

Ifo head warning of next EZ crisis

Market keeps testing upside in EURUSD

North Korea (important public holiday 9.9. may be topped by another missile test) and Irma risks present – going unhedged to the weekend?

Equities

Eicher Motors interested in Ducati (USD 2 bln)

BMW firing on all cylinders to start mass production of e-cars

To compete with Tesla with 12 models by 2025

EURUSD at 1.2100 will be noticed by EZ stocks

Likely to change the sentiment, hitting DAX

An opportunity from Harvey/Irma as insurance (-12%), leisure stocks were hit yesterday

Insurance down 12%, while during Katarina declined 5% only

Hedging by S&P 500 makes sense

Amazon kicking out competition among cities in US

By announcing plans to build 2^nd HQ (USD 5 bln)

Apple likely to face supply shortage and delays in new iPhone production

Eli Lilly to cut off 8% of workforce

JPMorgan making consumer, retail and internet divisions to work closer

Best (Alibaba behind) launching IPO in US (USD 930 mln)

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.04% - dipped lower in Asia trading

The dip below 2% may see more declines

10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%

Investors unloading property bonds linked to Texas (hit by hurricane Harvey)

DXY

Below 2016 low at 91.88, closing there today?

If it does, more USD weakness is likely with target around 89.00 area

Close above may confirm the lows in USD

Lower capital demand, thus growing USD supply has negative effect on USD

Trump needs to deliver (tax reform for companies to increase investments) and Fed to hike to support dollar

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi but EUR higher…

As effects of higher EUR are offset by lower yields

1.2000 is the fair value based on models

Resistance at 1.2071

Market pricing first hike in June 2019

Area between 1.1850/1.2050 may be a new playground until FOMC and next ECB

USDJPY

Breaks 2017 low at 108.12

Heading to 105/106.00

Below 108.00 level looks attractive to Japanese investors

Gold/Platina

Resistance in sight at 1375/80 (Fibo 38.2%/2016 high)

Well supported by mix of low US yields, weak USDJPY, increasing amount of bonds trading at negative yield

Raising speculative positions and option hedging

Platina can catch up the gold rally soon, as it trades at discount

Oil

Harvey hit the oil biz in US and what about Irma that is stronger?

Decline in inventories offset by decline in production and refinery demand keep the oil rally in check

But getting to unsustainable levels with WTI getting closer to USD 55

Risk of correcting to USD 50

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0900 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Sep 29 – US debt ceiling deadline

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 27, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC on summer vacation, playing safe, DXY close to support levels, EURUSD close to 200 WMA (1.1794), Gold/gold miners going higher? Heavy Deutsche Bank, Facebook enjoying the ride, Cameco - weak uranium price making heavy print)

Short recap

Asia up on dovish feeling Fed (stocks, bonds and commodities up)

Europe opening flat

ECB’s Nowotny – some room to reduce asset purchase from Jan 2018 but not stopping them

EU warned US over new sanctions against Russia as energy security is on the table

UK’s Rudd promised to keep access for EU workers

UK’s car industry production down 14% in June

US New home sales still growing but at a softer pace

FOMC – on summer vacation

Market feeling a dovish bias and lower likelihood of another 2017 hike

Balance sheet reduction to start relatively soon (market expecting announcement in Sep)

Repeated that inflation to rise to 2%

But admitted undershooting of 2% target

Equities

Daimler thinking about splitting some divisions

Third Point betting on Alibaba again as they see opportunities

No new sales of petrol/diesel cars in UK from 2040

Deutsche Bank to list its asset management arm but not before late 2018

Foxconn to build a new plant in US (3000 new jobs)

AGCO buying farm equipment division from Monsanto

Earnings

Samsung pretty comfortable with chip outlook, reported a record profits

Facebook doing well in mobile ads (up 50%), while strengthening its attraction as a social media

Amazon.com – to report better revenue supported by retail and cloud. Hungry a bit? What about the Whole Foods Market acquisition – any hints?

Procter & Gamble – organic sales should help the numbers

Celgene – investors are positive, would like to learn more on licensing deal with BeiGene

Cameco – results to be impacted by still ongoing fall in uranium prices. Market may also be interest in the progress/resolution of Tepco issue?

MasterCard – investors are positive

Intel – investors are positive by data center business will scrutinized

Twitter – market is expecting a decline in revenue on user growth stagnation

Deutsche Bank – investor worry about the results as the bank undergoes restructuring, Brexit and Trump Russian ties. All of that is also combined with ECB’s investigation of Qatar royal family and Chinese HNA who are bank’s largest shareholders.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28% (up)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.55% (down)

DXY

Offered tone, sentiment getting more bearish

As cautious Fed and political mess in Washington pressure USD

Close to support levels

EURUSD

Marching higher, no clear top yet, outside day reversal

Watching: 1.1750, 1.1794 (200 WMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo) and then 1.20/2200

Likely 1.1800 will be respected as ECB to turn dovish soon too

On falling inflation and missing wage growth

So the 1.1750 and 200 WMA may be seen as the top

Support of note 1.1615, then 1.1580

USDJPY

Pressured by lower US yields, long liquidate seen

Sitting on 111.00 with likely dip demand around 110.80

Option expiries between 111.00-111.30 (more than USD 1.7 bln)

Life insurers with lower interest in foreign bonds

Has some room to get and stay above 114.00 toward year end

Gold

Resistance at 1264 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Watch also ascending and descending trendlines

As it trades above 1250 (100 DMA) we may see opportunities from a long side

Not only in spot but also in gold mining stocks

On the back of low inflation, weak USD and Trump

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 27, 2017 - Market Update (US 30-yr Trys yield flatening further, EURUSD stuck within 1.11-1.1300 range, Gold flash crash but long specs reduced while keeping the bullish bias on political uncertainity, Mkango to lauch rare-earth production in Malawi, Alibaba's Best to do delivery services, Alphabet + Avis, Apple + Herzt)

Short recap

Asia up on expectations of Yellen confirming later today one more hike this year

Europe opening lower

Trump’s small victory (finally something) as Supreme Court made some parts of travel ban applicable

Trump-Modi (India) meeting was full of socializing

China-Canada agreed not to perform cyber attacks on private businesses to steal trade/confidential info

Fed’s Duddley sees easy financial conditions, high stocks as another reason to hike one more time this year

Draghi – no QE/bond buying for Greece

Equities

Sistema, MTS in legal fight with Rosneft and Russian courts

A logistic company Best (linked to Alibaba) looking to raising approximately USD 750 mln in US IPO

As Alibaba is betting on further rise in e-commerce and the need for delivery services

Mkango to launch rare-earth production in Malawi in 2020

One of the very few projects outside China

At full capacity should produce 3000 tonnes a year

Facebook planning to launch TV quality shows, already in touch with Hollywood

Some Italian banks saved (just for now), next is Portugal

Alphabet to work with with Avis, Apple with Herzt on self-driving fleets, data collection and self-driving software "training"

But Apple likely missed the train as Alphabet and others are years ahaed...

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

30-yr Trys yields dropped to 2.69% after weak data yesterday, thus flattening the yield curve further

Making the spread with 5-yr yield only 94 bps

The whole move was based on fading inflation expectations

As investors point to low oil prices and falling conviction of people about rising prices

Until these two change, the curve will keep flattening

EURUSD

Bear in mind end of month/quarter and mid-year flows

Stuck in the 1.1100-1.1300 range, needs a good catalyst

No carry trade flows as the EUR yields are too low

Capital flows prefer JPY, CHF as funding currencies

Support at 1.1189 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo), 10 DMA at 1.1172

Resistance 1.1195 (hourly Ichimoku), then 1.1228

USDJPY

Broke the resistance without any support from US yields

Offers were sitting at 112.00, may still be present

Battling with Ichimoku

But carry trades funding flows should keep JPY weak

Resistance at 111.79 (100 DMA), 112.25 (61.8% Fibo)

Support at 111.58 (50.0% Fibo), 111.33 (50 DMA)

Gold

Still holding well on political uncertainty globally

Waiting for Fed speakers today

While huge sell order from yesterday didn’t change the sentiment

Market saw a sale of 18.5k lots of gold and 5.5k lots of silver

In a very short time span likely by mistake as all was bought back afterwards

The drop in price triggered also stops below 1250 what took the spot to 1236 level

Should see much more selling as we witnessed a sharp reduction in longs

Today’s levels:

Resistance: rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 1249 (100 DMA), 1250 (10 DMA)

Support: 1235 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

Data/Events

ECB’s Draghi (0800 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (0805 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Praet

BoE’s Carney (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (2130 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Williams (0730 GMT)

Central bankers meeting in Portugal (1330 GMT):

ECB’s Draghi, Constancio, Mersch

BoE’s Carney

BoJ’s Kuroda

BoC’s Poloz

Thu

Fed’s Bullard (1700 GMT)

US Trade deficit report to be released – what accusations can we expect?

July 7/8 – G20 meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 5, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

Europe opening higher

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar over support of Iran (Islamic Brotherhood and Hamas)

Pushing oil more than 1% higher

All of that coming after Trump’s visit and security threats (banning travellers or notebooks on the planes)

Russia sees oil down to USD 40

UK – attacks and risk of no majority government increasing

It may weight on GBP as UK heads towards weaker government mandate

ECB’s Visco – Italy down most in 10 years

High debt because of low growth but still the average Italian household is wealthier the German one

Fed on track for June hike after weaker Friday’s NFPs but further hikes in question

Unless we see a pick up in inflation and Trump coming with positive fiscal news

Trump to come up with Dodd Frank revamp on Tuesday

But the reality is he doesn’t have enough votes in Congress to push it through

Equities

Investindustrial and Alibaba likely to submit a join bid for The Body Shop from L’Oreal

Blackstone selling Logicor to China Investment Corp (EUR 12.25 bln)

KKR raised USD 9.3 bln in new Asia buyout fund

Exxon misleadig about climate change impact of its business

Pfizer to hike prices of some drugs in US by 20%

Goldman Sachs eying to trade Saudis stocks

Home Capital to face regulators on June 26

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.17%% (2.16% critical level, on Friday closed below 200 DMA)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.27%

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1284, 1.1300 (big level), 1.1355/65and 1.14/15/1600 range

Should see lots of hesitation ahead of 1.1300

Support at 1.1213 (10 DMA), 1.1200 and 1.1179 (23.6% Fibo)

New trading range 1.1000-1.1500 ?

Morgan Stanley switching from end year 0.97 level for EURUSD to 1.1800

On strong data, political stability, valuations and equity market inflows

A very nice switch…

USDJPY

US yields taking the cross lower

Support at 200 DMA at 110.34, 110.10 (Ichimoku) and 109.60 (76.4% Fibo)

Bids sitting ahead of 110.00, with stops below

Resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo), heavy level

New trading range 108.00-112.00 ?

GBPJPY - With GBP under pressure and strong JPY double whammy  possible here... looking for lower levels

AUDJPY - Are bears controlling the market?

Weekly Commodity: Oil and Sugar under pressure, Grains in a vacuum Link 

Upcoming Data/Events

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

ECB likely to adjust the risk to economy wording but no change to asset purchases

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 8 - Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – Jun hike probability at 95%, Sep at 28% and Dec at 40%. After Friday’s NFPs Sep hike may be skipped if data doesn’t come strong.

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed on strong US data but political turmoil

Europe opening higher

Risk off only one day

China to normalize relations with South Korea

Brazil – after last year’s impeachment the new president Temer in the same shoes

ECB speakers defended the status quo, no clear path yet

Trump mess may push markets to reprice the risk

Trump visiting Saudi Arabia on Saturday, Aramco to sign business contracts

US job market keeps tightening

NAFTA talks to start in Aug

HF managers refocussing abroad as Trump trade fades

Equities

Bain Capital eyeing Toshiba

Deutsche Bank rebuilding reputation by asking former execs to participate financially at covering the bill they left for misconduct

Danone betting on synergies (WhiteWave) and cost cutting

Alibaba announced USD 6 bln buyback

Bombardier facing a probe on price dumping, action initiated by Boeing

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.24% (important 2.15% as an indicator of risk)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0900 GMT), Constancio (1200 GMT) speaking

Fed’s Bullard (1315 GMT), Willaims (1740 GMT) speaking

Iran presidential elections - impact on security and oil production

Raisi an orthodox cleric, promoting isolation

Rouhani globalist who negotiated the nuclear deal

May 24 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (1330 GMT)

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike at 65%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Trump mess

Europe opening lower

Trump to face tough scrutiny from Congress on meeting with Lavrov and sharing sensitive info

What would happen if Donald Trump were impeached?  link

European Court of Justice ruling – EU-UK trade deal doesn’t need to be ratified by all 38 EU’s national and local parliaments

Confirming the qualified majority vote of EU member states as sufficient

Kuroda – BoJ to continue the stimulus firmly

Atlanta Fed rising Q2 GDP forecast to 4.1%

Equities

UK gov to sell the remainder in Lloyds

Chinese Shanghai Pharmaceutical interested in Stada Arzneimittel

Yahoo planning a USD 3 bln share buyback ahead of merger with Verizon

Ford planning job cuts of white-collars

Delphi to work with BMW and Intel on autonomy driving project

JPMorgan shareholders not happy with Dimon advising Trump

KKR buying Q-Park (USD 2.2 bln)

Nasdaq offers enhanced data service based on robot intelligence

BGC launching e-platform to trade US Trys in June

NYSE planning a 350-microsecond delay on all in/outgoing orders

To use the similar set up at IEX Group does

Nasdaq printed new highs, helped by techs

As already mentioned stocks being resilient to global geopolitical and security risks

With VIX closing at 10.65

Earnings

Home Depot doing well as the revival in US real estate market goes on

And people keep refurbishing their dwellings

Cisco to report another decline in revenue as the company is striving to refocus from traditional activities to security, Internet of Things and cloud

Others reporting: Target, Tencent, Alibaba

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% - at critical support level, June hike still in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% - Bunds jumped at EU opening pushing the yields lower

Greece readying for July bond issue if agreement with lenders in place

DXY 

Market is getting distracted from growth agenda by Trump mess and we may face delays in reforms

But US economy is in a good shape, earnings growing, labour market tightening…etc.

EURUSD

Cross supported by EZ data, Macron, Merkel, capital inflows, US politics/Trump mess

Having positive correlation with risk, FR-GE spread narrowing

50 & 100 DMA may break through 200 DMA soon (overall technical picture remains bullish)

May have a potential toward 1.1300 and 1.1500

But 1.1000 needs to hold, next 1.1130/40 and 1.1250

Some traders still sceptical about further move higher

Seems that the spot is getting way ahead of yields

Bund yields lagging the move, need to catch up to validify the move

Option expiries may keep the cross close to 1.1100

EURUSD weekly chart - facing the resistance

Upcoming

UK: Labour Market Report

EZ: Inflation data

Thu

ECB’s Draghi, Mersch, Nowotny, Lautenschlaeger speaking

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri

ECB’s Constancio speaking

Fed’s Bullard speaking

Iran elections - impact on security and oil production

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 74% (CME) and 97% (Bloomberg)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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