Oct 9, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet trading today unless..., Honeywell spinning off, Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK, JPM/Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail, USDJPY - Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD)

Short recap

China in green after one week off

Europe in red

US/CA/JP markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving/Health-Sports day

US banks/Trys closed but stocks open

NFPs good on earnings, the rest is a question of interpretation (hurricanes, steady jobs growth…etc.)

But USD not taking any clues

Should have quiet trading unless Catalonia declares independence

Or Trump announces something out of ordinary on Iran nuclear deal

EU having two issues at political level – Catalonian independence and how to handle it

And the rise of populism in Italy ahead of next year’s elections

Still Brexit ongoing while German economy at full speed with French numbers getting better as well

Brexit – no deal planning underway on UK side

Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK

Equities

Honeywell planning spin offs to streamline the business

Tesla benefiting from Puerto Rico need to restore power

Airbus living turbulent times (investigation of corruption)

Boeing injected GBP 100 into Monarch Airlines

Automation companies to benefit another winner of Trump’s tax plan

Activist investors looking to unlock value of Canadian real estate market

Earnings season is back

Sentiment is strong, valuations highs

Thus companies must deliver to justify valuations

Reporting this week: BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Citigroup, BofA, Wells Fargo

JPM, Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail

Wells Fargo – sales scandal/reputation issues still up in the air

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% - finished the week lower on NFPs

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

COT report (as of Tue last week)

EUR longs at 91k vs 88k previous week

JPY shorts at 85k vs 71k previous week

GBP longs at 20k vs 5k previous week

EURUSD

EZ growth ok, CH private investors buying more assets abroad without hedging, some legacy shorts to be still closed out thus dips an opportunity to establish longs for 1.2500 (Source: Morgan Stanley)

Resistance at 1.1750 (200 HMA), 1.1755 (10 DMA), 1.1780

Support at 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1714, 1.1699 (200 WMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD

Resistance at 113.00, 113.25 followed by 113.57

Support at 112.62 (10 DMA), 111.89 (200 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Managed to jump off the lows around 1263

On potential new NoKo nuclear test and lower USD

Resistance at 1296 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1279 (10 DMA), 1273 (100 DMA), strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

US/CA/JP markets closed

Oct 9-15 – IMF/WB meeting

Eurogroup meeting

ECB’s Mersch (0745 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1200 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (2030 GMT)

Tue

Fed’s Kashkari (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Evans (0715 GMT)

FOMC Minutes

Fed’s Potter

Fed’s Bostic

Fed’s Williams (1440 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1450 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Draghi (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1600 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1610 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1015 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1025 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1300 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

Europe opening in red

FR elections – Macron winning over Le Pen (66/34)

The margin of victory was important ahead of Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Macro some pro-business policies at EU level as well, closer integration, common budget

What may go against Merkel’s vision

But what about cooperation of Macron/Schulz (two EU lovers) as Mitterand/Kohl were?

Fed’s Williams – balance sheet reduction should start in 2017

Considering balance sheet as monetary policy tool

Equities

Linde-Praxair deal getting more difficult

Frankfurt to welcome five largest US investment banks due to Brexit

Bonds

FR-GE spread at 42 bps, some stability

Seen some weakness in IT bonds

Back to old theme of viability of EU project

10-yr Trys yield at 2.37%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.42%

EURUSD

Higher to 1.1024 on Macron but gave up the gains to trade range bound again

Price action was not about Macron victory but the loss of Le Pen (relief)

Strong resistance at 1.1020 (descending trendline on daily chart)

Rising peripheral spreads can bring more doubts about long-term viability of EU project

US-GE yield spread showing EURUSD should be lower

Some buyers sitting at 1.0950, if broken can move to 1.0875

Risk-off capital flows into EU equities may have some impact

Levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0830 (200 DMA) – here likely to bottom

Gold (daily) – saw some short covering

June rate hike not priced in fully

Resistance at 1255, unlikely to be broken

Data

CA: Housing data would be of high interest on the back if real estate bubble issues in Canada

Fed’s Bullard speaking at 1235 GMT

Fed’s Mester speaking at 1245 GMT

Upcoming

Wed – ECB’s Draghi speaking

Fri – US CPI

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Mar 22, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Europe opening lower

Asia down as markets doubt about the Trump’s ability to bring real pro-growth policies in life. In other words the after Trump victory reflation trade is loosing momentum. Nikkei testing the important psychological level 19 000.

The US markets suffered heavy selloff that was also accelerated by negative comments from US administration about the ban of nuclear weapons.

Abe supported open markets policy in Brussels yesterday

EU-JP working hard on a trade pact

US regulators pushing for a risk reduction via making the securities settlement time shorter (2 instead of 3 days)

Trump putting pressure on lawmakers to vote for Obamacare repeal bill as it is a first major hurdle to implementing his agenda. Bear in mind that there is Senate and two Houses of Congress to get it through.

Brexit – 27 remaining members to meet on Apr 29 (note Art 50 to be triggered on Mar 29)

London based banks not to face lengthy set up process while moving to EZ

Goldman Sachs to start moving staff to EZ soon

UK banks to face investigation in relation to Russia money laundering activities

US banks hardly hit during US session (down 3%) as markets losing faith in Trump pro-growth policies, thus reflation trade

We may get ready for a 5-10% correction

S&P 500 below 2350 support

After closing the investigation of Opel (GM) in emission scandal yesterday, the French authorities continue with Fiat-Chrysler

Apple is out with newer version of iPad, priced at USD 329 (lowest in Apple world)

New opportunities for global investment banks open in Canada as the appetite for M&A from Canadian companies and pension funds is rising

Oil still feeling the oversupply

Russia open to support the OPEC/Non-OPEC deal

Gold – finding ideal support from risk off (lower stocks, USD, yields and mounting political risks in US)

EURUSD – important 1.0800/50 if broken we aim for 1.1000 and higher

But if the rally in EURUSD is based on political risk off how sustainable is it?

At the moment the Le Pen defeat is not a done deal yet, just recall the Hillary Clinton winning the debates but the winner was…

USD – suffering against EUR, JPY and GBP, while stronger against EM currencies (reflation trade fading away)

USDJPY – 111.60 important, driven by yields

10-yr Trys yield at 2.43% (mid band of 2.30%-2.60% range)

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.43% (flat)

ECB is “testing” the market reaction to possible taper announcement at Dec 2017 meeting with a 10 bps rate hike

EURCZK – at the beginning of this week we saw a significant increase in activity on the bid side across all forward maturities. At the same time the flow was also much higher than usual, what may continue as a part of risk off, reflation and EM flows, not to mention, of course, the likelihood of CNB to remove the EURCZK 27.000 floor this year.

Data

US: Existing Home Sales – expecting a small decline

Villeroy (ECB) to speak (0830 GMT)

Lautenschlager (ECB) to speak (1130 GMT)

Thursday: US House voting on Obamacare repeal

Super important event in terms of whether Trump can/is able to deliver

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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