Nov 2, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC a non event, Powell in and Tax bill out, BoE hiking after 10 years & taking a long break after..., EURUSD a shadow of USDCNH, IMF not ok with selling volatility products, Apple a big thing after market, Barclays fed up with Brexit and taking actions, Deutsche Bank seeking a second building in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia printing new 10-yr high as on optimism from Fed

Europe opening lower

FOMC – no changes, non event

Just reconfirmed all with economic activity to solid from moderate

Dec hike a done deal

IMF warns volatility products loom as next big market shock  link

Selling volatility complex products can be the trigger if volatility suddenly increases

Equities

Barclays is fed up with how UK is handling Brexit

And implementing their own plan

Deutsche Bank to move more operations to Frankfurt

Herbalife off the Ackman’s short bet who turned to options instead

Signa Holding (owner of Karstadt) eying Kaufhof (owned by Hudson Bay) for USD 3.5 bln

Thanksgiving travels to help airliners

Novo Nordisk warning of US legislation (Trump’s anti industry rhetoric)

Earnings

Apple – should learn more about Christmas iPhone sales and iPhone X orders

Asia is impressed by iPhone X but are they going to actually buy/afford it?

Others reporting: Alibaba, Starbucks, AIG, DowDuPont, Cigna, BCE, Bombardier

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% below 2.40% as attempts to get above faded

10-yr Bund yield at 0.38%

EZ yield spreads contracting, namely IT to GE, ES to GE going to year end

EURUSD

Resistance at 1.1640 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1670 (200 WMA), 1.1690 (10 DMA), 1.1695 (100 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1.1630 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1500

 Source: Saxo Bank

Is USDCNH telling Us something ? EURUSD bulls need to move above 1.1660 in order the daily H&S to be under pressure…

GBPUSD

BoE hiking after 10 years? One off to 0.50% from current 0.25%

And likely taking a long break after…

Hard to spot any levels of choice and Brexit mess is still ongoing

Support at 1.3222 (50 DMA), 1.3204 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 1.3336

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Got some support from Powell nomination

No clear reaction to FOMC’s no change, just a small advance as rate don’t go up immediately

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), descending trendline

Support at 1275 (10/100 DMA), 1263 (low & 61.8% Fibo)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Fed’s Powell (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1620 GMT)

Republicans unveiling tax reform bill (1515 GMT)

Rumours on repatriation tax rate:

5% on non-cash

12% on cash

But no offsetting revenue yet

Possibility of a temporary nature of the tax cuts

Trump meeting House GOP leaders (1745 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair (1900 GMT)

Powell likely taking the Chair and Taylor his Deputy?

That would be a true shift after Yellen…

Powell good for stocks as we can see the continuity

But not much for USD

Fed’s Bostic (2215 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs

Payrolls +310k exp. vs -33k prior

Unemployment rate 4.2% exp. vs 4.2% prior

Hourly earnings 0.2% exp. vs 0.5% prior

Fed’s Kashkari (1615 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2015 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Sep 21, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC - market not a strong believer of Fed talk, EURUSD sitting at strong support 1.1870/80, Gold at crossroad between 1290-1300, UniCredit to buy Commerzbank, Apple slowing, Huawei, Oppo, Samsung speeding up, EU to redo taxation of digital world)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening higher

EU-CA free trade deal in effect starting today

EU to redo taxes on digital companies

Goldman Sachs expect USD 1 trln tax cuts (0.4% of GDP) over 10 yrs

FOMC – no change, rates 1.00-1.25%

Taper starting in Oct to get cushion for next crisis

Expecting 1 more hike this year, 3 hikes next year

Market pricing Dec hike at 66% vs pre-FOMC 46%

But market still not a strong believer in Dec hike yet

Fischer out, Yellen likely out next year want to make a point

Low inflation transitory but with question mark

BoJ – no policy change

Short term rates target at -0.1%

10-yr JGB yield target at 0%

Bond buying at JPY 80 trln annually

Who holds the most assets?

Fed 23% of GDP – on the way to trim

ECB 40% of GDP – Draghi was late to the QE party but did well

BoJ 60% of GDP – no signs of slowing…

Equities

Delphi & BlackBerry to work on self-driving cars software

Google eying HTC Corp (USD 1.1 bln)

UniCredit interested in merging with Commerzbank

New Apple watch experiencing connectivity issue

Apple slowing in innovation while Chinese rivals (Huawei & Oppo) growing on design and price

Amazon screening website for ingredients used to make bombs

Something different... Amazon is the New Tech Crash  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

EURUSD

Completed bearish outside day

Sitting slightly above the strong support zone 1.1870/80

Post-FOMC flows to show direction today

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Then 1.1837, 1.1823, 1.1808 (50 DMA), 1.1727 (200 WMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

If we see a consolidation 1.1600/1.1500 may be a target

Resistance at 1.1943 (10 DMA), 1.1966 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Fed moving, BoJ on hold makes bearish tone for JPY

Resistance around 112.60-70, stops above up to 113.00

Then 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Support found from 112.20 lower with bids starting at this level

112.31 (38.2% Fibo), 112.18 (200 DMA), descending trendline

Gold

USD and higher yields putting pressure

Rocket man and Barking dog providing support

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1300, ascending trendline

All critical levels

Data/events

ECB General Council meeting

ECB’s Praet (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1330 GMT)

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Sep 15, 2017 - Market Update (US inflation surprise making Dec Fed hike a 50/50 game, Weidmann like Draghi...eyeing his job?, Oil above USD 50 a stability for US shale, GBPUSD up to 1.3500, but weak USD can push it to 1.4000 despite heavy short specs, Trump trade making US small caps rally)

Short recap

Asian in red on NoKo playing with fire again but market corrected quickly

Europe opening mixed

ECB’s Weidmann out with comments like Draghi…getting ready for his job?

Aug US inflation at 1.9%, core 1.7%, higher than expected

Bringing Dec Fed hike to 50/50 probability

But economists predict Fed pausing…

Equities

Rupert Murdoch’s takeover of Sky not a done deal yet

Nestle taking over Blue Bottle Coffee

Low commodity prices make CNOOC stop a feasibility study of a LNG terminal in BC

Oil price above USD 50 bringing stability to US shale

Upcoming Trump trade shadow and tax deal making US small caps rally

France expects other EU members to join the tax fight against online companies like Amazon, Google

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% vs 2.19% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% vs 0.40% yesterday

GBPUSD

BoE surprisingly very hawkish yesterday, opening the door to 1.3500

If USD takes a hit after today’s retail sales, can march higher towards 1.4000

Despite heavy short specs betting on Brexit mess

Platina

In case of risk off mood, can do much better than gold

As it trades at huge discount to it

Data/events

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC – not expecting anything special

Fed is on the way to start USD 10 bln tapering as of Oct 1

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

July 12, 2017 - Market Update (All about Yellen today, Merkel flying EUR high, Siemens chasing their turbines, Chinese banks another opportunity, Trump and Russia (but Junior this time), 10-yr Bund yields jumping above 0.60% mark)

Short recap

Europe opening higher

Trump Jr – Russia blow here but markets focus on Yellen

Trump administration constantly distracted, not focussing on proper work

Gary Cohn Trump’s candidate to replace Yellen

Fed’s Mester likes taper sooner rather than later

Merkel putting pressure on ECB to raise rates

JPM’s Dimon – taper can caught people by surprise

Chinese media speculations – PBOC should widen the 2% CNY daily trading band

Funds kept selling USDCNH overnight

Quarels as a Trump Fed nominee getting first oppose comments

Due to his ties to Wall Street and possibility that oversight of huge banks would be softer

Moody’s – Lack of clarity in Brexit making question marks around UK’s credibility

Equities

BlackRock - Investors need to take more risk  link

US asset managers underallocated EM stocks 

Total to invest USD 3.5 bln in Qatar offshore oil

Siemens chasing their turbines in Crimea even legally

Chinese banks underperformed their global peers but offer lower valuations and decent yields

Regulators were out saying the risk is in control

Snap hit by downgrade from Morgan Stanley (underwriter) on slower ad development

Instagram is biting in to Snap’s largest user base among young

Bonds

BoJ increased bond purchases in 3-5 yr space

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% but 5-yr/10-yr may experience some correction after recent move higher (support around 2.30%)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.61% - sharp jump from around 0.55% after yesterday’s comments from Merkel

EURUSD

Merkel, Trump Jr. – Russia thing, dovish Fed comments behind the move

1.1450 broken, on the way to 1.1580 as short term longs were open

Likely looking at 1.1615 as long as 10 DMA (1.1407) not clearly broken on dips

Next the 1.1714 and 1.1750 may come

Bear in mind that any rally above 1.1600 is way overstretched and likely not lasting

All about Yellen today, watch especially her remarks on inflation

But market is very very complacent about Fed moving…

USDJPY

Resistance at 114.36 high

Stops at 113.50 hit but dip demand helped

Support at 113.30 (10 DMA), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo), descending trendline

Dips below 113.00 may be a good point to renter longs

But 112.00 level can serve as a stop level

Expiring options USD 1.3 bln between 113/114.00

Market is very long USDJPY but short gamma

And 50/100/200 DMA at 111.89/78/66 very close

Again all about Yellen today

Gold

Support at 1214 low held, no more technical selling through

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

If broken along with 16.20 in Silver we can see more short covering

But Yellen today again…

Data/Events

Yellen testifying (1400 GMT) before Congress Committees today/tomorrow (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

Likely to confirm the continuation of normalization

Do financial conditions continue to ease

Job market and inflation

Balance sheet reduction – suspension of reinvestment policy coming announcement in Sep ?

Another rate hike in Dec ? Currently priced at 49%

ECB’s Linde 

ECB’ Dalhau, Dombret

Fed Beige Book (1800 GMT)

Fed’s George (1815 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

June 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

The Russian dust around Trump is settling down

And we go back to work to crunch through hard data and policy execution

Softer Brexit talk and EU is opening the door for UK to stay

Equities

Renault-Nissan surprised investors with specially created vehicle for undisclosed bonuses for top management

A shadow of unclarity surrounding Banco Popular fall down

Verizon-Yahoo deal done, Mayer is a history

GM taking it seriously about electric autonomy cars

Apple issuing USD 1 bln of special bonds in a support of green projects

As Trump backs away from Paris climate agreement

…a nice action with a bit of branding building

Postponed US banking reform to postpone global initiatives

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Markets have experienced recently some USD buying from leverage names against EUR and CHF

While selling from real money going to FOMC

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo), 96.90 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500?

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Critical resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

IMF’s Lagarde speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Constancio speaking (0815 GMT)

FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference) in the light of inflation development

Economic projections to be released

As well as details on balance sheet reduction (USD 4.5 trln) are expected

…all of that in the light of today’s US CPI release

Do not forget that US economy usually doing better in H2

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

June 13, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

EU not happy with lack of clarity on UK side

Working on moving trading and clearing of EUR denominated assets out of UK

Basics of financial reform in US unveiled

Equities

US techs heavy yesterday but got some bids at the end of session

Is a 4% correction enough?

Material stocks can be back in vogue on copper break…

Hong Kong listed stocks trade at 30% discount to US peers

While offering attractive yields

Risk is China data

GE to review its business activities as the new CEO comes in

Bit of financial world…UK financials keep moving staff out of UK despite softer Brexit talk

LSE expecting profit growth to be driven by indices and clearing

Allied Irish Banks to sell 25% stake to rise EUR 3.3 bln

US banks launching their own payment app to compete with peer-to-peer Venmo

Honeywell to spin off profitable aerospace

Slovakian ESET and US Dragos warn of a malware that can attack critical infrastructure

That was behind last year’s Ukraine power blackout link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.21%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%

BoJ slowed down bond buying as the rising yields stabilized

As the US Trys yields have fallen

DXY

Nothing new from yesterday…

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

Seems soft ahead of FOMC

Resistance at 1.1200, 1.1232 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

US yields lending some support

Lots of offers above 110.00, more above 110.50

Large options with strike 110.00 expiring today

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.54 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

GE: Schaeuble speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Lautenschlager 1000 GMT

Tue/Wed – FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference)

Economic projections to be released

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 23, 2017 - How is June Fed hike priced in?

Just a brief update among all the Trump related Russian mess...

Fed hike - currently June hike priced at 78% and next one at 43%. Meaning, the market is pricing 2 more hikes this yr at 43% probability.

Fed likely to pause after June.

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

May 8, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

Europe opening in red

FR elections – Macron winning over Le Pen (66/34)

The margin of victory was important ahead of Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Macro some pro-business policies at EU level as well, closer integration, common budget

What may go against Merkel’s vision

But what about cooperation of Macron/Schulz (two EU lovers) as Mitterand/Kohl were?

Fed’s Williams – balance sheet reduction should start in 2017

Considering balance sheet as monetary policy tool

Equities

Linde-Praxair deal getting more difficult

Frankfurt to welcome five largest US investment banks due to Brexit

Bonds

FR-GE spread at 42 bps, some stability

Seen some weakness in IT bonds

Back to old theme of viability of EU project

10-yr Trys yield at 2.37%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.42%

EURUSD

Higher to 1.1024 on Macron but gave up the gains to trade range bound again

Price action was not about Macron victory but the loss of Le Pen (relief)

Strong resistance at 1.1020 (descending trendline on daily chart)

Rising peripheral spreads can bring more doubts about long-term viability of EU project

US-GE yield spread showing EURUSD should be lower

Some buyers sitting at 1.0950, if broken can move to 1.0875

Risk-off capital flows into EU equities may have some impact

Levels: 1.0900, 1.0850, 1.0830 (200 DMA) – here likely to bottom

Gold (daily) – saw some short covering

June rate hike not priced in fully

Resistance at 1255, unlikely to be broken

Data

CA: Housing data would be of high interest on the back if real estate bubble issues in Canada

Fed’s Bullard speaking at 1235 GMT

Fed’s Mester speaking at 1245 GMT

Upcoming

Wed – ECB’s Draghi speaking

Fri – US CPI

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Jun 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Apr 7, 2017 - US NFPs

US NFPs - official expectations:

Headline 180k exp vs 235k prior

Unemployment rate 4.7% exp vs 4.7% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.2% prior

Few comments apart from official numbers above:

A bit mixed views as employment was strong in ISM Manufacturing

While dropped substantially in ISM Non-manufacturing

ADP strong at 263k

Jobless claims steady

Our expectations are closer to 200-220k

Market putting more emphasis on the dynamic of hourly earnings grow because of inflation pressures

That in turn may benefit USD

With this respect would need to see earnings growth at a higher pace than +0.2% m/m or +2.8% y/y

Weather may play a role

Unlikely that a bad surprise would effect Fed rate hikes

Wouldn’t be surprised if stock markets finally take a note of hiking…

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 15, 2017 - FOMC hiking...and EURUSD towards 0.9500 ?

...a long awaited "D" day is here again:

EURUSD – crucial for bulls to stay above 1.0505/15 level

Still within the wider range 1.0500/1.0850

Tomorrow’s trading (after FOMC) to show further direction

But wouldn’t be surprised if we stayed range bound again

Base setup – a contrarian view:

ECB can not be dovish going to G20 and on German higher rates hopes

Should Germany want higher rates and higher currency, the Germanexit needs to take place

USD not reacting to strong data doesn’t mean bearish view

Monthly chart setup showing strong demand around 1.0500 level

FOMC can give the confirmation to break the level and head to parity

Than to 0.9500 in medium term

Likely this move will be accompanied by spike toward 1.0750/0850 as market will look for liquidity

Yields expected to spike up but correct in the coming days (as history shows)

10-yr Trys yield likely to test 2.64% level that contained the recent selloff

If Fed not convincing about higher pace of rate hikes due to Trump policy uncertainty

USD selloff to follow what will hurt more then stronger currency

Looks like being bullish USD is an edge and market is positioning for weaker USD

On the other hand ECB and FOMC will need to take into account lower oil prices

And their impact on inflation at some point

...also today:

Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)

US debt ceiling deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia saw some profit taking ahead of FOMC

EU stocks opening higher

EU may officially authorize the start of Brexit talks on June 20 meeting

China keeps building in disputed South China Sea

Interesting to see extremely low level of volatility across many asset classes despite Trump and his policies

May be something is already boiling and FOMC tonight will be the trigger

Oil volatility giving the lead to equity markets

Lower oil may be a new catalyst for stocks

S&P 500 levels 2350/2400

Would need a strong impulse from FOMC to break 2400

US tech and healthcare overstretched and most sensitive to any correction

Volkswagen still recovering from diesel emission scandal and seems to be motivated to search for a tighter cooperation with other big names in the industry, like Fiat-Chrysler for example

Safran still interested in Zodiac Aerospace

Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (S&P500 puts to calls) strongly up as investors pay more for downside protection

EURUSD – crucial for bulls to stay above 1.0505/15 level

Still within the wider range 1.0500/1.0850

Tomorrow’s trading (after FOMC) to show further direction

But wouldn’t be surprised if we stayed range bound again

Base setup – a contrarian view:

ECB can not be dovish going to G20 and on German higher rates hopes

Should Germany want higher rates and higher currency, the Germanexit needs to take place

USD not reacting to strong data doesn’t mean bearish view

Monthly chart setup showing strong demand around 1.0500 level

FOMC can give the confirmation to break the level and head to parity

Than to 0.9500 in medium term

Likely this move will be accompanied by spike toward 1.0750/0850 as market will look for liquidity

Yields expected to spike up but correct in the coming days (as history shows)

10-yr Trys yield likely to test 2.64% level that contained the recent selloff

If Fed not convincing about higher pace of rate hikes due to Trump policy uncertainty

USD selloff to follow what will hurt more then stronger currency

Looks like being bullish USD is an edge and market is positioning for weaker USD

On the other hand ECB and FOMC will need to take into account lower oil prices

And their impact on inflation at some point

Data

US: Consumer Price Index – expecting to touch 2.7%

US: Retail Sales – to easy slightly but keep rising

FOMC – 25 bps hike expected

But the wording on the pace of future hikes the most important

Dutch elections (polling stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)

US debt ceiling deadline

This week is busy:

Mar 16 – BoJ meeting (right after Fed hiking…)

Mar 16 – SNB meeting (to be watched as EURCHF is not behaving in a normal way)

Mar 16 – BoE meeting

Mar 17 – Merkel meeting Trump

Mar 17-18 – G20 FinMin meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 7, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia higher

EU markets mixed open

US deploying anti-missiles battery in South Korea

North Korea was likely targeting US bases in Japan yesterday

Markets finding Trump still loosing focus from economic topics, main message from US stock yesterday

Brexit – new debate about Brexit bill at 1100 GMT

Deutsche Bank CEO backing the EUR 8 bln shares offering

Shares may continue on negative starting today

Intesa SanPaolo selling stake in Allfunds (EUR 800 mln) to realize capital gain

Likely to have a positive spin over effect on other EU financials

PSA Group - Opel-Vauxhall deal worth of EUR 2.2 bln to challenge Volkswagen

Another round of consolidation and search for cost savings with Standard Life buying Aberdeen Asset Management (GBP 11 bln)

Real estate business is interesting as we still have very low interest rates what makes building and renovating attractive

TG Therapeutics up on leukemia drugs combination doing well in a study

Cameco (a uranium producer) looking at selling mines in US on a couple of years industry decline

Nobody expressed interest in buying Trump tower in Toronto as a part of debt holder claim sale

HFs eyeing bank stocks again after years of negative no interest

Gold – support at 1220 (Fibo 38.2%) and 1210 (50/100 DMA)

EURUSD 

Staying bearish short term

If you are bullish there is no advantage of buying in now

It may still move higher but we have ECB and NFPs this week

All can be again about 1.0500/15 range as last week

HFs back to USD longs on Fed hike

Having hike fully priced in their positioning

But please remember that Fed officials were preparing us for a rate hike cycle (3 hikes this year) and not for March hike as such

If all goes well they will hike three times and (may be) one hike can be even higher than 25 bps

A serious shift in ECB policy unlikely before Jan 2018

But may see the change in capital key what in turn would boost peripheral bonds

Base range levels: 1.0500 and 1.0800/50

1.0625/50 important on the way higher today

No major support until 1.0250

BONDS

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.34%

10-yr US Trys yield at 2.50% - still in a wait and see mode despite stock markets rallying and market expecting growth acceleration

A break of 2.60% would endorse the change

Data

EZ: Q4 GDP to stay steady at 0.4%

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 6, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Fed rate hike prospects and slowing China

China working on reforms to reign in the debt load, put in place measures to contain future financial crisis and shift the export lead to consumer oriented economy

North Korea playing with fire again

German Private banking association don’t see the need for ultra-loose policy from ECB anymore

Oil lower on Russia production cut compliance

Trump verbally dumping MXN lower but is it really what he wants?

Weaker MXN means Mexico more competitive

Gold – net longs up 48% hitting 3-month high (COT)

Deutsche Bank selling EUR 8 bln of shares and stake in Asset management business

Need to strengthen position and increase the capital ratios

If sold at EUR 11.65 per share would bring the CET1 to 14.1%

A small surprised in dividend of EUR 0.19 while market not expecting anything

Peugeot-Citroen helped GM to exit from Europe by buying Opel-Vauxhall

OMV buying a share in Russian gas field (EUR 1.75 bln)

Yellen’s speech on Friday:

“A rate increase at next meeting "would likely be appropriate" if Fed determines that data on employment and inflation are continuing to move in line with expectations.”

Well a magic word “if”…

EURUSD and USDJPY – back to square one

Pace of rate hikes not expected to changed on Mar 15 even if Friday’s NFPs are strong

That’s why USD reaction on Fischer and Yellen muted

Do we really have more USD strength in store?

COT report – cutting USD long posit

EURUSD daily levels:

3^rd res 1.0789

2^nd res 1.0706

1^st res 1.0664

Pivot 1.0581

1^st sup 1.0539

2^nd sup 1.0456

3^rd sup 1.0414

USDJPY daily levels:

3^rd res 115.47

2^nd res 115.11

1^st res 114.53

Pivot 114.17

1^st sup 113.60

2^nd sup 113.23

3^rd sup 112.66

FX OPTIONS

EURUSD - Saw a massive selloff in the middle and longer end of the curve on Friday due to:

Le Pen losing ground, risk on in stocks, spot higher from 1.0500 despite Fed speakers and US data, and March hike already priced in

1w covering ECB and NFPs at 7.5 vol, what is the spot range of 110 pips

3m ATM down 0.9 vol to 9.35 level (3m covering FR elections)

BONDS – A heads up…

10 yr Trys yield at 2.47%

10 yr Bunds yield at 0.35%

A bit of divergence (more than 200 bps) between 10 yr Trys and Bunds

Is the market really reflecting the reality of rise in price and economy growth in EZ that way?

More reasonable level for Bunds yield would be around 1% than 0.35% now

Just imagine the shift if it materializes

ECB – QE and wording on inflation/growth crucial

As the political risks in EZ are fading away (Le Pen)

Data

The whole week will be about the below. Today we have EU Summit but no major headlines expected.

Thu:

ECB – expecting just some verbal tweaks on QE, bond buying, may be reshuffle of maturities…etc.

Markets will be searching for any hints on change in the position on rise in prices and growth

No major change expected despite Buba seeing world differently

Fri:

US NFPs – headline figure, unemployment rate and Average hourly earnings will be watched

Earnings is the number to look at if no bad surprise in headline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More

Mar 1, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

JP higher on weaker JPY, rest of Asia mixed

EU opened higher

US indices didn’t keep the gains on Trump disappointment as he was short of details about his plans on tax overhaul and infrastructure

Open to immigration reform deviating from campaign rhetoric

Top US and CN officials discussed trade and economy

US growth slowed a bit but consumer spending strong

US PCE, next week NFPs and few Fed speakers left – crucial for March hike

Brexit – banks will have 12-18 months for transition

Will see how it goes as they push for 5 year period

Fiat Chrysler facing diesel emissions allegations on some models

Volkswagen paid USD 2.9 bln to buy back 138k diesel cars in US

EU Commission more flexible on changes in Telecom sector

Apple doing marketing with USD 50 bln paid last year to US based suppliers (like 3M, Corning…etc.)

Stocks trading at record highs on new iPhone expectations

Salesforce.com revenue up 27%

Opel-Peugeot – GM searching for opportunities, not mentioning sale of Opel

TransCanada withdrew its legal case against US over stopping Keystone XL (USD 15 bln)

Valeant looking at further revenue decline in 2017 amid competition. The company is still struggling under enormous debt burden, likely the sales of non-core assets may not be sufficient.

US banks with record profits last year

Fidelity Investments and Charles Schwab lowering trade commissions to zero

Another war in brokerage field boiling?

10 yr US Trys yield at 2.42%

10 yr Bund yield at 0.21%

USD supported by rising Mar 15 hike expectations not the Trump talk

Now at 78% above 70-75% for Fed to move

Other sources say 65/70%

Fed Williams March hike “up for serious consideration”

Room to go: 

DXY towards 102.00/12 (high from Nov)

10 yr US Trys yield towards 2.52% (range 2.30/2.52%)

If DXY moves higher, stocks should have the room too

Fed hike can be further catalysator

Will see whether further US data and remaining Fed speakers will seal the deal

EURUSD – as mentioned before the 1.0500-20 level a battleground

USDJPY – 115.00 and Ichimoku ahead of us

Data

Wed:

UK: Manufacturing PMI – expected slightly higher (close to three year high)

US: PCE inflation expected at 1.7%, hitting of 1.8% or above will be a strong signal for Fed to move in March

US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase

US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher

ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change

Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking

Beige Book

Thu:

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime. 

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More