...a long awaited "D" day is here again:
EURUSD – crucial for bulls to stay above
1.0505/15 level
Still within the wider range 1.0500/1.0850
Tomorrow’s trading (after FOMC) to show further direction
But wouldn’t be surprised if we stayed range bound again
Base setup – a contrarian view:
ECB can not be dovish going to G20 and on German higher
rates hopes
Should Germany want higher rates and higher currency, the
Germanexit needs to take place
USD not reacting to strong data doesn’t mean bearish
view
Monthly chart setup showing strong demand around
1.0500 level
FOMC can give the confirmation to break the level and
head to parity
Than to 0.9500 in medium term
Likely this move will be accompanied by spike toward
1.0750/0850 as market will look for liquidity
Yields expected to spike up but correct in
the coming days (as history shows)
10-yr Trys yield likely to test 2.64% level that
contained the recent selloff
If Fed not convincing about higher pace of rate
hikes due to Trump policy uncertainty
USD selloff to follow what will hurt more then
stronger currency
Looks like being bullish USD is an edge and market is
positioning for weaker USD
On the other hand ECB and FOMC will need to take into
account lower oil prices
And their impact on inflation at some point
...also today:
Dutch elections (polling
stations close at 2000 GMT, first exit polls to start right after)
US debt ceiling deadline
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
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