June 20, 2017 - Market Update (USD getting technical support, extreme bearish sentiment turning, US yields rising, US House to finish tax reform in 2017, US stocks getting back to Trump trade on better financial liquidity)

Short recap

Asia green

Europe opening higher

US House looking to complete the tax reform in 2017 as the pressure is mounting

Brexit – EU stance is clear, the exit settlement, final bill and rights of EU citizens come first then the rest as future trade deal…etc.

PBOC pushing for more open financial sector in order to support the healthy developments

Equities

Markets slowly moving higher among extremely low volatility, Techs coming back

But China credit is bubbling and can be a catalyst for correction

MSCI to decide whether Chinese A-shares (domestic shares) will be included in MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Actually, it is already 4^th attempt to get included

Hard to say whether they will succeed and how many share will be included anyway

CVC Capital Partners to sell Continental Foods (EUR 1 bln)

Orange to reduce its stake in BT Group (GBP 900 mln)

Boeing out with new 737 jet

PerkinElmer buying Euroimmun (USD 1.3 bln)

Magna won the BMW 5-series plug-in hybrid production

Paulson on Valeant board

Altaba shares (holding company left from Yahoo sale) to starting to trade on NASDAQ

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18% - moves in yields to show direction of USD. DXY should get further technical support with the close above double bottom neckline and possibility to rally towards 98.50 or so. Actually, the extrem bearish USD sentiment is turning and coming back from the lowest levels last seen in 2011.

10-yr Bund yield at 0.29%

EURUSD

5, 10 and 20 DMA pointing lower

Breaking 1.1194 (10 DMA) can show the momentum lower is weak

Support at 1.1120/30 but the rising trendline around 1.1040 may be the next target

Resistance 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo)

USDJPY

Should get some support from rising US yields

Resistance at 111.82 (Ichimoku), 100 DMA at 111.85

But well set up for a rise towards 114.36

Support at 111.24 (50.0% Fibo)

Large expiring options between 110.50/111.00

Data/Events

Fed’s Fischer (0715 GMT)

BoE’s Carney (0730 GMT)

UK’s Hammond (0800 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1900 GMT)

Wed

Brexit - Queen’s speech 1030 GMT

Thursday

EU Summit

Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Bullard (1515 GMT), Mester (1640 GMT), Powell (1815 GMT)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 14, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia mixed

The Russian dust around Trump is settling down

And we go back to work to crunch through hard data and policy execution

Softer Brexit talk and EU is opening the door for UK to stay

Equities

Renault-Nissan surprised investors with specially created vehicle for undisclosed bonuses for top management

A shadow of unclarity surrounding Banco Popular fall down

Verizon-Yahoo deal done, Mayer is a history

GM taking it seriously about electric autonomy cars

Apple issuing USD 1 bln of special bonds in a support of green projects

As Trump backs away from Paris climate agreement

…a nice action with a bit of branding building

Postponed US banking reform to postpone global initiatives

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.26%

DXY

Markets have experienced recently some USD buying from leverage names against EUR and CHF

While selling from real money going to FOMC

Should FOMC keeps hawkish wording, USD to benefit

If not, USD sell off to be small and short

Support at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo), 96.90 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 97.85 (50% Fibo), followed by 99.26 (38.2% Fibo)

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500?

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA), 1.1284, then 1.1300

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1114 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Critical resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.58 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Gold

Double top

Resistance at 1275 (10 DMA), 1276 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1264 (38.2% Fibo), 1261 (50 DMA), 1255 (50.0% Fibo)

Eventually, 1245 (61.8% Fibo and 100 DMA) depending on how hawkish FOMC wording will be

Upcoming Data/Events

IMF’s Lagarde speaking

ECB’s Weidmann speaking

ECB’s Constancio speaking (0815 GMT)

FOMC meeting

Dovish hike priced in

Market can get surprised if Fed keeps talking hawkish

Forward guidance critical (Yellen holds a press conference) in the light of inflation development

Economic projections to be released

As well as details on balance sheet reduction (USD 4.5 trln) are expected

…all of that in the light of today’s US CPI release

Do not forget that US economy usually doing better in H2

Thu/Fri – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 17, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia in red on Trump mess

Europe opening lower

Trump to face tough scrutiny from Congress on meeting with Lavrov and sharing sensitive info

What would happen if Donald Trump were impeached?  link

European Court of Justice ruling – EU-UK trade deal doesn’t need to be ratified by all 38 EU’s national and local parliaments

Confirming the qualified majority vote of EU member states as sufficient

Kuroda – BoJ to continue the stimulus firmly

Atlanta Fed rising Q2 GDP forecast to 4.1%

Equities

UK gov to sell the remainder in Lloyds

Chinese Shanghai Pharmaceutical interested in Stada Arzneimittel

Yahoo planning a USD 3 bln share buyback ahead of merger with Verizon

Ford planning job cuts of white-collars

Delphi to work with BMW and Intel on autonomy driving project

JPMorgan shareholders not happy with Dimon advising Trump

KKR buying Q-Park (USD 2.2 bln)

Nasdaq offers enhanced data service based on robot intelligence

BGC launching e-platform to trade US Trys in June

NYSE planning a 350-microsecond delay on all in/outgoing orders

To use the similar set up at IEX Group does

Nasdaq printed new highs, helped by techs

As already mentioned stocks being resilient to global geopolitical and security risks

With VIX closing at 10.65

Earnings

Home Depot doing well as the revival in US real estate market goes on

And people keep refurbishing their dwellings

Cisco to report another decline in revenue as the company is striving to refocus from traditional activities to security, Internet of Things and cloud

Others reporting: Target, Tencent, Alibaba

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% - at critical support level, June hike still in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41% - Bunds jumped at EU opening pushing the yields lower

Greece readying for July bond issue if agreement with lenders in place

DXY 

Market is getting distracted from growth agenda by Trump mess and we may face delays in reforms

But US economy is in a good shape, earnings growing, labour market tightening…etc.

EURUSD

Cross supported by EZ data, Macron, Merkel, capital inflows, US politics/Trump mess

Having positive correlation with risk, FR-GE spread narrowing

50 & 100 DMA may break through 200 DMA soon (overall technical picture remains bullish)

May have a potential toward 1.1300 and 1.1500

But 1.1000 needs to hold, next 1.1130/40 and 1.1250

Some traders still sceptical about further move higher

Seems that the spot is getting way ahead of yields

Bund yields lagging the move, need to catch up to validify the move

Option expiries may keep the cross close to 1.1100

EURUSD weekly chart - facing the resistance

Upcoming

UK: Labour Market Report

EZ: Inflation data

Thu

ECB’s Draghi, Mersch, Nowotny, Lautenschlaeger speaking

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri

ECB’s Constancio speaking

Fed’s Bullard speaking

Iran elections - impact on security and oil production

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – market pricing rate hike above 74% (CME) and 97% (Bloomberg)

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 18, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening higher, UK lower but heading lower now

Markets getting ready for French elections this Sunday and developments around North Korea

Need some risk events to go away to focus on fundamentals and earnings season again

Trump congratulated Erdogan in a call

Appreciated Turkey’s support in Syria attack

Mnuchin smoothed out Trump’s comments against strong USD in a short term

Strong currency in a long term reflecting strength and confidence in the economy

But may hurt exports short term

Admitted that health care bill stop delaying tax reform discussions

US fully supporting Japan’s security

Japan appreciates all options against North Korea on the table

Chinese real estate prices keep rising

Despite cooling measures

Fed’s Fisher glad about muted market reaction to potential taper

Stocks

Genentech (Roche Holding) received approval from FDA on bladder cancer drug

Volkswagen positive on China sales grow this year

Wal-Mart looking to enter the online fashion world by Bonobos acquisition

To face competition from Amazon.com

Berkshire and Juwai.com working together to help Chinese to buy properties in US

Boeing keeps laying off employees

M&A in US telecom industry coming as the ban will be lifter in the coming days

Earnings season

Mostly US names reporting but Europe should bring more positive surprises

Need very strong earnings to push equity markets higher

Goldman Sachs – expecting a positive surprise supported by investment banking and bond trading. Markets also waiting for insides about the use of data and technology to be more efficient and profitable.

Bank of America – expecting positive results based on increased trading and rate hikes

UnitedHealth Group – should benefit from clients leaving Obamacare but lots of uncertainty after Trump lost the healthcare vote

IBM – not to surprise the market on a positive note as the company is still turning around

Johnson & Johnson – investors are curious how the company is coping with Obamacare repeal defeat, ongoing Actelion acquisition (USD 30 bln) and future plans

Yahoo – let’s check the last earnings report before getting acquired by Verizon

Bonds

GE-FR spread at 72 bps

Markets waiting for French elections results

Hedging started to go through the market last week

10-yr Trys yield at 2.25%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

EURUSD – support 1.0566 (23.6% Fibo)

Resistance 1.0706 (38.2% Fibo)

Buyers sitting in 1.0550-1.0600 area

USDJPY – Mnuchin setting support line for the cross

Strong support at 108.82 (200 DMA) holding

DXY – support at 100

Resistance 101 (76.4% Fibo/100 DMA)

Gold – looking at 1295/1300 resistance; 1315 (Fibo 76.4%)

Likely to correct first to 1263/1270; 1278 (Fibo 61.8%)

Reacting to retracing of JPY and bond yields

Oil – recent rally was supported by strong short-covering with few new longs

Data

Fed’s George to speak

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections - still 40% of voters undecided

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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