Jan 15, 2018 - Market Update (USD hit by non-US monetary tightening, No Bitcoin ETFs/mutual funds (for now), Bulls at extreme levels, SoftBank to list mobile biz, EUR longs up again, EURUSD to consolidate today, Gold to attack 2017 high at 1357, facing 1357-1375 range resistance)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

Trumps racist comments are dangerous in general

And can also change the behaviour of the public

Thus hurting the consumption habits, investments and economy

FR and GE looking at EZ investment budget/reforms

USD hit by markets pricing monetary policy tightening in other developed countries

Bitcoin ETF Fast Track Derailed by SEC Liquidity, Safety Worries  link

Applications for 12 ETFs and 2 mutual funds withdrawn from SEC approval process

On liquidity and security concerns

Equities

SoftBank Group to list mobile phone biz (USD 18 bln)

This step should cement the ambitions as a global investor in tech

Lactalis to compensate the victims of Salmonella

BlackRock with USD 6 trln of AUM

Earnings

Markets ready for strong figures only

BofA, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Schlumberger, ASML reporting

Bulls are at extreme levels

Markets with 15 months of gains

Equity funds experiencing record inflows

Source: Yardeni Research

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.55% vs 2.55% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.52% on Friday

2-yr Trys yield at 2.00% after a recent sharp rise

2-yr Bund yield at -0.62%

ECB’s Weidmann calling for exact QE end date

ECB still with QE despite economy getting stronger

Bill Gross (Janus): Bonds are in a bear market  link

“The 1.45% for tens can legitimately be cited as the end of the bond bull market which began at 15.8% in 1981 and provided prescient portfolio managers with the potential for huge capital gains and the moniker of “total return”

COT report

EUR longs at 145k vs 128k week before

JPY shorts at 126k vs 122k week before

GBP longs at 26k vs 16k week before

EURUSD

ECB Minutes after taste still in the market

Draghi is definitely happy as higher EUR and yields tighten monetary conditions

What in turn gives him more time to keep negative rates despite EZ economy is getting stronger 

EUR is also supported by GE coalition talks and Merkel/Macron calls for EZ reforms

Bullish outside week is completed

Consolidation should be the name of the game today

Support at 1.2100, 1.2088, 1.2078 (23.6% Fibo), 1.2046 (10 DMA), 1.2041 (2012 low)

Resistance at 1.2227 (50% Fibo of 2014/15 move), 1.2330 (descending trendline – 2008/2011/2014 and 2008 low)

But serious one at 1.2644 (61.8% Fibo)

For Elliott Waves lovers the 1.2288 is critical 

Looking from short side at EUR

EURUSD daily

Focus on Fibo levels and yellow zones

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD weekly

Focus on two red circles (highs and descending trendlines)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Specs added 110k lots recently on weaker USD, geopolitical risks

Resistance at 1357 (2017 high) and 1357-75 range

Support at 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

Should be quite day 

US closed on account of Martin Luther King Jr day

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 12, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC Minutes - debated inflation, JPMorgan & Citigroup reporting, Goldman Sachs back to investment banking?, EURUSD above 1.1830, heading to 1.2000 but..., CZK on the horse, Gold - which way now?, Homework time for Catalonia until Monday)

Short recap

Asia up reaching 10 yr high

Europe opening flat to lower

Spain gave until Monday Catalonia to drop independence

Otherwise will take over all powers over the autonomy region

Oil inventories rising even though OPEC is cutting production

FOMC Minutes – inflation debate intensified

Some patience to assess inflation path warranted

But others are looking at Dec hike

Doves and Hawks at Fed  chart

Repatriation tax rate at 10% according to Trump

Equities

A bit of reminder of .com area – A Biotech Company Changed Its Name to ‘Riot Blockchain’ and Its Stock Is Surging  link

Japanese equities may still look interesting but don’t forget that BoJ is still active in the market

Better days for banks ahead?  link

May get support from rising rates that will translate to higher profit margins

Citron (short seller) – looking to publish more of their research on Shopify

JPMorgan – should report a bit better results, focus on trading and loan business

Citigroup – expecting slight disappointment earnings

BlackRock enjoying the bull run as index investors take the AUM to USD 6 trln

Goldman Sachs looking to return to investment banking as it is looking for new deals

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

Wealth manager warns on bond markets creating the 'biggest financial crisis of our lifetime'  link

Are bonds ready for a quick reversal as central banks look to remove QE?

Bond markets are at certain point illiquid

Guessing that ECB knows this one better as they have sometimes troubles to find suitable available bonds to buy

EURUSD

Catalonia is over for now, markets turning attention back to EZ macro

Back above 1.1830, opening the door for 1.2000

Resistance at 1.1910

Support at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1845 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.61 (10 DMA), 112.70 (Ichimoku turning line)

Support at 111.89 (200 DMA), 111.85 (23.6% Fibo)

EURCZK

CZK on the rising wave, now below 26.00

Resistance at 25.88 (10 DMA), 25.97

Support at 25.47

Bear in mind that it is still too early read the charts after CNB 27.00 floor adventure

But at least weekly chart can give us some clues where we are heading to

CNB sitting on tons of foreign reserves and now losing money

Some politicians calling for joining EUR

General elections taking place on Oct 20-21

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1295/96 (highs), 1297 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB’s Draghi (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (2010 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1425 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1530 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1700 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 9, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet trading today unless..., Honeywell spinning off, Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK, JPM/Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail, USDJPY - Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD)

Short recap

China in green after one week off

Europe in red

US/CA/JP markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving/Health-Sports day

US banks/Trys closed but stocks open

NFPs good on earnings, the rest is a question of interpretation (hurricanes, steady jobs growth…etc.)

But USD not taking any clues

Should have quiet trading unless Catalonia declares independence

Or Trump announces something out of ordinary on Iran nuclear deal

EU having two issues at political level – Catalonian independence and how to handle it

And the rise of populism in Italy ahead of next year’s elections

Still Brexit ongoing while German economy at full speed with French numbers getting better as well

Brexit – no deal planning underway on UK side

Deutsche Borse working hard on moving euro clearing out of UK

Equities

Honeywell planning spin offs to streamline the business

Tesla benefiting from Puerto Rico need to restore power

Airbus living turbulent times (investigation of corruption)

Boeing injected GBP 100 into Monarch Airlines

Automation companies to benefit another winner of Trump’s tax plan

Activist investors looking to unlock value of Canadian real estate market

Earnings season is back

Sentiment is strong, valuations highs

Thus companies must deliver to justify valuations

Reporting this week: BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan, Citigroup, BofA, Wells Fargo

JPM, Citi expecting lower trading revenues, BofA to benefit from cost cutting and expanding in retail

Wells Fargo – sales scandal/reputation issues still up in the air

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36% - finished the week lower on NFPs

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

COT report (as of Tue last week)

EUR longs at 91k vs 88k previous week

JPY shorts at 85k vs 71k previous week

GBP longs at 20k vs 5k previous week

EURUSD

EZ growth ok, CH private investors buying more assets abroad without hedging, some legacy shorts to be still closed out thus dips an opportunity to establish longs for 1.2500 (Source: Morgan Stanley)

Resistance at 1.1750 (200 HMA), 1.1755 (10 DMA), 1.1780

Support at 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1714, 1.1699 (200 WMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Peaking and may loose momentum as per daily chart/MACD

Resistance at 113.00, 113.25 followed by 113.57

Support at 112.62 (10 DMA), 111.89 (200 DMA)

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Managed to jump off the lows around 1263

On potential new NoKo nuclear test and lower USD

Resistance at 1296 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1279 (10 DMA), 1273 (100 DMA), strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

US/CA/JP markets closed

Oct 9-15 – IMF/WB meeting

Eurogroup meeting

ECB’s Mersch (0745 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1200 GMT)

BoJ’s Kuroda (2030 GMT)

Tue

Fed’s Kashkari (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

Wed

Fed’s Evans (0715 GMT)

FOMC Minutes

Fed’s Potter

Fed’s Bostic

Fed’s Williams (1440 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1450 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Draghi (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1030 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1600 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1610 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1015 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1025 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1130 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1300 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 4, 2017 - Market Update (IBEX under pressure, China conspiracy theory, Some US companies may revise down, Monsanto facing issues with new soybeans Xtend, Buffett likes Pilot Flying, New Fed Chair speculations riding USD and Trys yields, EURUSD - a new H&S formation?, Gold found strong support at 1268)

Short recap

Japan/Hong Kong up, China/SoKo closed

Europe opening mixed

UK heading towards hard Brexit on settlement bill dispute

Likely to be much larger than UK politicians think

But 2-yr transition period helps to remove pressure from GBP

Higher USD causing USD funding issues

A China Conspiracy Theory: "What If Beijing Is Behind The Entire Move?" SocGen Asks  link

Equities

IBEX under pressure as Catalonia to declare independence in coming days

Constitutional Court likely overrun the declaration what will lead to escalation

People are in the streets and some companies stop working

Spanish king involved with “unacceptable disloyalty” as well

A bit of caution is warranted as some US companies may issue guidance revisions to the downside over the coming days

And analysts will adjust their earnings estimates accordingly

The impact of Harvey and Irma is still being evaluated

Then, let’s turn positive for seasonal rally towards Christmas unless something doesn’t happen

Few thoughts from Warren Buffett  video

Likes Pilot Flying

Monsanto to report a loss on lower commodity prices and lower income from farms

Troubles with new soybeans tolerant to herbicide also to blame

Amazon to pay EUR 400 mln of back taxes to Luxembourg

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.32% - plenty of next Fed Chair speculations pushed yields lower.

Treasury Sec Mnuchin favors Powell

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46% - EZ yields lower while UK and Spain higher

Bitcoin

BlackRock’s CEO Fink – Bitcoin shows how much money laundering is being done in the world

Offers huge opportunities but presently is more speculative in nature

China’s bitcoin market alive and well as traders defy crackdown  link

As traders buy/sell bitcoin directly with each other via peer-to-peer market place and apps

All of that shows limitations of governments trying to control the market

EURUSD

Lots of ECB/Fed speakers till weekend and next Fed Chair speculations to move the market

Warsh seems to be the favorite (most hawkish, pro-USD)

If Powell is in, risk for USD

Other candidates: Yellen, Cohn, Taylor, Hubbard, Allison

Support around 1.1708/20 held, closing this week above 1.1836 can extend the USD weakness

Support at 1.1766 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1846 (50 DMA)

A new Head & Shoulders on EURUSD daily chart? Will see...

Let's peak back to around 1.1900

Then go lower towards 1.1450-1.1500 level...

Source: Saxo Bank

USDJPY

Market having difficulties to break 113.00 on Fed Chair/US yields

Bulls may get nervous if 113.30 not decisively broken

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Supported by weaker USD

Trump ratings heading lower, likelihood of more irrational behaviour growing

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

1268 strong support (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally)

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

ECB’s Draghi (1315 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1500 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (1515/1915 GMT)

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

ECB’s Praet (0430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (0815 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (0910 GMT)

Fed’s Harker (1000 GMT)

Fed’s George (1630 GMT)

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Aug 7, 2017 - Market Update (DXY up from strong support, EURUSD correction shallow to 1.1700/1650, A look towards 1.2000 still on the cards, World CBs to reassess how aggressively hawkish they are, S&P sees Fed on hold ,3 hikes in 2018, Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling, US stock options - already positioning for increased volatility, Glencore looking to buy into Rio Tinto's assets, UBS private banking with USD 2 trln of AUM)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

New sanctions against North Korea (supported by China/Russia as well)

UK ready to pay EUR 40 bln Brexit bill

S&P sees Fed on hold this year with 3 hikes in 2018

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting today/tomorrow

Iron ore up 5.5% on China continuous stock piling

Equities

Glencore stretching muscles and increasing offer (USD 2.7 bln) for Rio Tinto’s assets

Deutsche Bank dropping from the list of world’s top 15 private banks

Hit by heavy bill of USD 14 bln for MBS mis-selling

UBS staying at the top with more than USD 2 trln of AUM

Weak USD to keep supporting global stocks further

Elliott disclosed 6% stake in NXP Semiconductors

Likely to make NXP sale to Qualcomm more expensive (USD 38 bln)

US stock options – stocks at highs, volatility at lows…and some investors are already positioning for increased volatility

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.27% vs 2.23% on Friday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47% vs 0.45% on Friday

Higher yields are looming but market complacent

Central banks likely to be very cautious not to disturb the market

Funds stay long bonds, not looking to exit trades anytime soon

Recalling 2013 – still far from 3% yields, so visible action from funds yet

Vanguard and BlackRock not happy with bond traders being too complacent link 

Inflation in the U.S. bound to accelerate in matter of months

Bond traders are too complacent and TIPS ‘incredibly cheap’

COT report as of last Tue:

EUR longs at 83k vs 91k previously, cut by 8k

JPY shorts at 112k vs 121k previously, cut by 9k

GBP shorts at 29k vs 26k previously, increased by 3k

DXY

Jumped up from strong support zone (92.64 and 91.88)

NFPs may be seen as an excuse for correction in USD but US yields crucial

Fed expectations pivotal for further USD direction as well as policy direction of other central banks

As their more hawkish stance made their currencies to strengthen a lot versus USD

They are likely to reassess “how aggressively” they want to be hawkish

But it should support USD in a short term only unless political, tax and fiscal mess in US disappears

Have we already seen the top at EURUSD 1.1910 and bottom at USDJPY 109.84?

EURUSD

Shorts pared back some gains as US yields showed no change on market expectations of Fed policy

Support 1.1776 (200 WMA, last week closing below), 1.1772 (10 DMA)

Followed by 1.1723 (23.6% Fibo)

But the critical is the yield spread between Trys/Bunds

Not expecting a deep correction, likely 1.1700/1650 at this stage

Look towards 1.2000 still on the cards

USDJPY

Staying within a tight range

Bids placed from 110.00 up

Resistance 110.78 (10 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo) and Ichimoku turning line at 111.02

110.14 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline as support

Data/events

Mon

Fed’s Bullard (1545 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1725 GMT)

Thu

Fed’s Duddley (1400 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Kaplan (1340 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1530 GMT)

Aug 24-26 Jackson Hole

Draghi’s show up highly expected in the light of potential tapering

Any clues on EUR 60 bln monthly purchase being taken down o 40…or?

Sep 7 - ECB

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 29 US debt ceiling deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom 

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July 18, 2017 - Market Update (Trump not able to deliver anything, EURUSD above 1.1500 but below 1.1600 ahead of ECB, 10-yr Trys yield positioning ahead of FOMC, Gold shorts to get squeezed?, UniCredit selling EUR 18 bln of bad loans, ETFs outflow to trigger next downturn, Citi in Frankfurt)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

After 2^nd Obamacare repeal vote failure

Doubts about ability of Trump administration to deliver anything on the rise

Markets getting more comfortable with Fed slowing its hiking pace and all USD negative Trump news

Since US elections S&P 500 is up 13.7% vs Gold being down 7.7%

Equities

Lufthansa rising profit target on higher summer bookings

UniCredit selling EUR 18 bln of bad loans to Fortress and Pimco

Citigroup picking Frankfurt as EU base for trading and sales after Brexit

Rio Tinto lowering iron ore shipment forecast due to weather and infrastructure upgrade

Cutting fees by BlackRock doesn’t help earnings and getting new cash

But watch the flows to ETFs and passive investments as they may trigger next market decline

FedEx warning about cyber attacks impact on earnings

Valeant close to selling Obagi (USD 190 mln)

Earnings

BofA – market is already prepared for lower trading earnings, so the cost cutting plans are a questions

Goldman Sachs – lower trading and investment banking volumes to make a print on results

Johnson & Johnson – Obamacare repeal, sales and benefits of Actelion acquisition (USD 30 bln) to be scrutinized

IBM – markets are more and more negative

Lockheed Martin – expecting better results as governments spend more money on defence, guidance for 2018 may bring more light

Harley-Davidson – not to impress on lower sales in US

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.30% - drop is likely positioning for upcoming FOMC next week

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58%

EURUSD

Obamacare repeal mess/failure creating strong reaction along with stops at 1.1500 pushing USD lower

But political stuff likely off the table soon as we head to ECB on Thu

Next resistance 1.1580, then 1.1615

Followed by 1.1714, 1.1750

Staying above 1.1600 is way overstretched, 1.1615 should hold ahead of ECB

USDJPY

JPY experienced strong buying across crosses

Bids may be sitting above 112.00

Expiring options around that level too

50/100/200 DMA at 111.84/78/84 very close

Resistance at 112.31 (38.2% Fibo) and 113.14 (23.6% Fibo)

Gold

Above 200 DMA at 1229, 1234 (76.4% Fibo)

If we see another move higher, shorts may get well squeezed

From macro perspective (US data), has a room to go higher

Rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo) and 50/100 DMAs (1248) acting as resistance

Data/Events

BoE’s Carney (1330 GMT)

Thu

ECB meeting – no change in policy

Dovish wording from may push traders to reassess their stance as EUR had a very nice run

And is hitting few important resistances

Very likely Draghi doesn’t want to repeat his hawkish speech from Sintra sending 10-yr Bund yield above 0.50% from around 0.25% level

Markets pricing a 10 bps hike of deposit rate (-0.4%) over the next year

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 12, 2017 - Market Update (All about Yellen today, Merkel flying EUR high, Siemens chasing their turbines, Chinese banks another opportunity, Trump and Russia (but Junior this time), 10-yr Bund yields jumping above 0.60% mark)

Short recap

Europe opening higher

Trump Jr – Russia blow here but markets focus on Yellen

Trump administration constantly distracted, not focussing on proper work

Gary Cohn Trump’s candidate to replace Yellen

Fed’s Mester likes taper sooner rather than later

Merkel putting pressure on ECB to raise rates

JPM’s Dimon – taper can caught people by surprise

Chinese media speculations – PBOC should widen the 2% CNY daily trading band

Funds kept selling USDCNH overnight

Quarels as a Trump Fed nominee getting first oppose comments

Due to his ties to Wall Street and possibility that oversight of huge banks would be softer

Moody’s – Lack of clarity in Brexit making question marks around UK’s credibility

Equities

BlackRock - Investors need to take more risk  link

US asset managers underallocated EM stocks 

Total to invest USD 3.5 bln in Qatar offshore oil

Siemens chasing their turbines in Crimea even legally

Chinese banks underperformed their global peers but offer lower valuations and decent yields

Regulators were out saying the risk is in control

Snap hit by downgrade from Morgan Stanley (underwriter) on slower ad development

Instagram is biting in to Snap’s largest user base among young

Bonds

BoJ increased bond purchases in 3-5 yr space

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% but 5-yr/10-yr may experience some correction after recent move higher (support around 2.30%)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.61% - sharp jump from around 0.55% after yesterday’s comments from Merkel

EURUSD

Merkel, Trump Jr. – Russia thing, dovish Fed comments behind the move

1.1450 broken, on the way to 1.1580 as short term longs were open

Likely looking at 1.1615 as long as 10 DMA (1.1407) not clearly broken on dips

Next the 1.1714 and 1.1750 may come

Bear in mind that any rally above 1.1600 is way overstretched and likely not lasting

All about Yellen today, watch especially her remarks on inflation

But market is very very complacent about Fed moving…

USDJPY

Resistance at 114.36 high

Stops at 113.50 hit but dip demand helped

Support at 113.30 (10 DMA), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo), descending trendline

Dips below 113.00 may be a good point to renter longs

But 112.00 level can serve as a stop level

Expiring options USD 1.3 bln between 113/114.00

Market is very long USDJPY but short gamma

And 50/100/200 DMA at 111.89/78/66 very close

Again all about Yellen today

Gold

Support at 1214 low held, no more technical selling through

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

If broken along with 16.20 in Silver we can see more short covering

But Yellen today again…

Data/Events

Yellen testifying (1400 GMT) before Congress Committees today/tomorrow (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

Likely to confirm the continuation of normalization

Do financial conditions continue to ease

Job market and inflation

Balance sheet reduction – suspension of reinvestment policy coming announcement in Sep ?

Another rate hike in Dec ? Currently priced at 49%

ECB’s Linde 

ECB’ Dalhau, Dombret

Fed Beige Book (1800 GMT)

Fed’s George (1815 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 31, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia up on better steel industry performance that pushed China factory activity higher

Europe opening mixed

Trump's head of communication is leaving – who knows why?

Wouldn’t be better if Trump has left and all the other staff members stay? The problem is solved then…

USDCNH down as overnight funding rising

EU Commission proposing EMU gov debt securitization (thus packaging debt of different countries together)

After GE refused the idea of Eurobonds

Equities

Vivendi closer to controlling Telecom Italia on EU antitrust approval

Struggling IT banks Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca – one of the options is to close them if no state aid solution is agreed on

LSE buying bond data and index business from Citi (USD 685 mln)

Amazon above USD 1000 watermark to attract more buyers

As analyst expect another 10% push higher on average

Gilead Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline go tough in HIV drugs

Goldman Sachs bought USD 2.8 bln bonds of Petroleos de Venezuela bonds at discount

BlackRock CEO – US financial markets “probably fully priced in” and Q2 earnings could dissappoint

Few words on stocks…

Some argue that stock prices are too high but after considering the slow pace of interest rates rise, they are reasonable for the time being. Of course, staying vigilant is important but some sectors like mining or Japanese equities (trading at 20% discount to US peers) may be of interest. Earnings are solid, still favorable to be investing in stocks based on earnings performance, few unknowns on the horizon like North Korea, Trump, China growth or possible snap elections in Italy as we head to quiet summer period.

So what’s next? Well, the ECB’s possible wording adjustment in June and then Fed’s 3^rd rate hike and taper in H2.

HP to report the slide in earnings amid the push towards more focussed strategy and data center hardware business

Palo Alto Networks to report lower profit despite fast-growing cyber security industry. In case of the company, the competition bites.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.22%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.28%

Brainard dovish on soft inflation (thus pushing Trys yields lower) but expecting rate hike pretty soon

EURUSD

Month end flows likely visible

Closing below 1.1140/55 range the 1.1000 is in sight

As the next likely 1.0840

1.1000 – growing in importance

1.1128 (61.8% Fibo Nov/Jan)

Expiring options around 1.1150 level, towards 1.1200 and large at 1.1250

USDJPY

Resistance at 111.00

Next 50 DMA at 111.21 and 50% Fibo at 111.24

200 DMA at 110.20 – a pretty strong support right above 110.00 level

GBPUSD

Polls changing the game and potentially election outcome for May

As she may not be able to form the government alone what in turn would weaken UK’s negotiation position in Brexit talks

1.2775 is the next to watch, followed by 200/100 DMA at 1.2586/1.2573 levels

Data

EZ: Flash CPI

Core CPI should move back close to 0.8% level (market expectation 1.0%) vs 1.2% prior

CPI expected at 1.5% vs 1.9% prior

Former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate (tentative)

Beige Book

ECB’s Coeure (0720 GMT), Lautenschlaeger (1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT), Williams (2330 GMT)

Thu

ECB’s Villeroy

Fed’s Powell

Fri

US NFPs 185k exp vs 211k prior

Unempl. rate 4.4% exp vs 4.4% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.3% prior

Fed’s Harker

EU-China Business summit (Juncker/Li)

June 8 – ECB meeting – Draghi being alone but inflation data from US and JP suggesting ECB to carry on with ultra-loose stimulus

June 8 – UK elections including Scotland, if SNP/Sturgeon wins the independence referendum likely to follow

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting – hike probability was at 89% after yesterday’s data. If data supportive, we may see one hike in June, then in Sept followed by balance sheet reduction announcement in Dec

June 15/16 – EcoFin meeting to discuss Greece

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 20, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia started in red but turned to green as oil recovered a bit

Europe opening higher

ECB officials see stimulus measures as appropriate in the light of low inflation pressures

Beige book – economy modest to moderate growth, inflation in check, lack of sufficient low-skilled workers and issues with workers fluctuation

Akzo Nobel struggling with pushy take over bid from PPG

Rio Tinto stays positive despite drop in iron production and lower prices

Bombardier upheld by court, Ontario can not cancelled the train order

AstraZeneca looking to deliver in immune/oncology field

Keystone XL pipeline not an easy deal for TransCanada despite Trump support

As farmers in Nebraska may bring more clouds

BlackRock benefiting from higher volumes in ETFs

While short of revenue estimate

FTSE 100 testing lows despite Europe higher

Earnings season

US corporates doing well

Morgan Stanley with higher bond trading than Goldman Sachs

Proving that Goldman is loosing the market share

Today:

Visa – should benefit from higher volume but FX conversions may hurt

Philip Morris – should benefit from better sales of cigarettes and their alternatives

Verizon – results to be effected by strong competition in wireless and Yahoo acquisition

Bonds

Investors still sitting in bonds ahead of FR elections

And keeping the yields low

GE-FR spread hit the high of 79 bps

10-yr Trys yield at 2.20%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.19%

FX

DXY – close to key levels

Support at 99.26 (61.8% Fibo), 99.00 rising trendline and 200 DMA (98.97)

USDJPY – close to support at 108.50

Below 200 DMA at 108.86

And descending trendline

EURUSD – support at 1.0706 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: 1.0750, 1.0760/70 (descending triangle trendline), 1.0830 (Feb high), 1.0840 (200 DMA + descending trendline)

FR elections to set the direction as triangle is closing

GBPUSD – Is it heading to 1.3000/35 ?

French election the crucial test

If market positive outcome (Macron to second round, Le Pen disappointing)

Sterling may benefit

Commodities

Oil dropped yesterday on build up in gasoline inventories and smaller drop in US stockpiles

Refinery demand strong = lower inventories of oil

But refineries producing lots of gasoline = stocks rising as gasoline demand is low

Drop was also supported by removing of risk premiums as some geopolitical risks faded off

Oil market not to go higher for now

Short side speculators driving the market overall

Resistance USD 51.50 (50.0% Fibo)

Support USD 49.60 (61.8% Fibo)

Data

US: Initial Jobless Claims – to stay close to lows

US: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing – likely to ease further

Powell (Fed) speaking at 1200 GMT

Carney (BoE) speaking at 1530 GMT

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

May 25 – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 19, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opened mixed

GBP up yesterday as market speculates that snap elections can remove the political uncertainty

And give a stronger mandate for May in Brexit talks

Pence – NK to expect an overwhelming and effective response

China shadow banking back at full speed

China eased capital flow controls

Foreign investment in Canada hitting high of CAD 39 bln on M&A

Geopolitical events and upcoming French election driving investors to safe heavens (gold, bonds)

FTSE 100 below recent lows on stronger GBP

BMW see China sales to grow 10% in 2017 while globally should rise 5-5.5%

Credit Suisse still in a clash with its shareholders over top execs bonuses

Earnings season

Goldman Sachs disappointed on trading revenue what impacted markets yesterday

Lower trading activity was to blame as the bank doesn’t benefit from lending as competitors do or additional trading related business.

Is Goldman Sachs loosing a market share?

Morgan Stanley – expecting positive surprise on more active bond trading and cost cutting

American Express – expecting a negative surprise due to competition margin squeeze and rising costs

BlackRock – more than profit report markets will scrutinize cost cutting and reorganization plans

Especially at active stock picking division

Others: Qualcomm, CSX, Abbott Laboratories, eBay, U.S. Bancorp

Bonds

10-yr Bund yield at 0.16%

10-yr Trys yield at 2.18%

Touched 2.1629% - the lowest since Nov 2016 elections

The area of support is around 2.1346% (38.2% Fibo)

The levels around/below 2.20% may be a good place to start to sell bonds

But the appetite for safety stays strong for now

Don’t forget about Fed hiking and trimming bond portfolio

George (Fed) supporting bond taper this year

June hiking priced at 43%

EURUSD daily – getting crowded

GBPUSD daily – no risks of Brexit negotiations removed

More to go? Will the 1.2800 hold? How long?

The move occurred on very thin liquidity

After surprise announcement

Data

EZ: CPI – no surprise expected, should stay in line

Beige Book (Fed)

Hansson (ECB) speaking (0800 GMT)

Coeure (ECB) speaking (1200 GMT)

Praet (ECB) speaking (1430 GMT)

Rosengren (Fed) speaking (1630 GMT)

Upcoming:

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

40% still undecided

Official results at 1800 GMT

Exit polls from midday but on BE and CH media only

More precise estimates around 1600 GMT

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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