Short recap
Asia up on expectations of Yellen confirming later today
one more hike this year
Europe opening lower
Trump’s small victory (finally something) as
Supreme Court made some parts of travel ban applicable
Trump-Modi (India) meeting was full of socializing
China-Canada agreed not to perform cyber attacks
on private businesses to steal trade/confidential info
Fed’s Duddley sees easy financial conditions,
high stocks as another reason to hike one more time this year
Draghi – no QE/bond buying for Greece
Equities
Sistema, MTS in legal fight with Rosneft
and Russian courts
A logistic company Best (linked to Alibaba)
looking to raising approximately USD 750 mln in US IPO
As Alibaba is betting on further rise in e-commerce and
the need for delivery services
Mkango to launch rare-earth production in Malawi
in 2020
One of the very few projects outside China
At full capacity should produce 3000 tonnes a year
Facebook planning to launch TV quality shows,
already in touch with Hollywood
Some Italian banks saved (just for now), next is
Alphabet to work with with Avis, Apple with Herzt on self-driving fleets, data collection and self-driving software "training"
But Apple likely missed the train as Alphabet and others are years ahaed...
Bonds
10-yr Trys yield at 2.14%
10-yr Bund yield at 0.25%
30-yr Trys yields dropped to 2.69% after weak data
yesterday, thus flattening the yield curve further
Making the spread with 5-yr yield only 94 bps
The whole move was based on fading inflation expectations
As investors point to low oil prices and falling conviction
of people about rising prices
Until these two change, the curve will keep flattening
EURUSD
Bear in mind end of month/quarter and mid-year flows
Stuck in the 1.1100-1.1300 range, needs a good catalyst
No carry trade flows as the EUR yields are too low
Capital flows prefer JPY, CHF as funding currencies
Support at 1.1189 (hourly Ichimoku), 1.1187 (23.6% Fibo),
10 DMA at 1.1172
Resistance 1.1195 (hourly Ichimoku), then 1.1228
USDJPY
Broke the resistance without any support from US yields
Offers were sitting at 112.00, may still be present
Battling with Ichimoku
But carry trades funding flows should keep JPY weak
Resistance at 111.79 (100 DMA), 112.25 (61.8% Fibo)
Support at 111.58 (50.0% Fibo), 111.33 (50 DMA)
Gold
Still holding well on political uncertainty globally
Waiting for Fed speakers today
While huge sell order from yesterday didn’t change the
sentiment
Market saw a sale of 18.5k lots of gold and 5.5k lots of
silver
In a very short time span likely by mistake as all was
bought back afterwards
The drop in price triggered also stops below 1250 what
took the spot to 1236 level
Should see much more selling as we witnessed a sharp
reduction in longs
Today’s levels:
Resistance: rising trendline, 1245 (61.8% Fibo), 1249
(100 DMA), 1250 (10 DMA)
Support: 1235 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo)
Data/Events
ECB’s Draghi (0800
GMT)
Fed’s Williams
(0805 GMT)
ECB’s Coeure (0830
GMT)
ECB’s Praet
BoE’s Carney (1000
GMT)
Fed’s Harker (1500
GMT)
Fed’s Yellen (1700
GMT)
Fed’s Kashkari
(2130 GMT)
Wed
Fed’s Williams
(0730 GMT)
Central bankers
meeting in Portugal (1330 GMT):
ECB’s Draghi,
Constancio, Mersch
BoE’s Carney
BoJ’s Kuroda
BoC’s Poloz
Thu
Fed’s Bullard (1700
GMT)
US Trade deficit
report to be released –
what accusations can we expect?
July 7/8 – G20
meeting – will Trump meet with Putin?
July 20 – ECB
meeting
July 26 – FOMC
meeting
Should you have any questions feel free to contact me
anytime.
Good luck Champs!
Mr Hawk
DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational
purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and
current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice
and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material
cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite
this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice.
All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom
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