July 6, 2017 - Market Update (Trump in Poland, EUR - lower global use on high hedging cost, EURUSD - focus on Minutes & 1.1300 with lots of expiring options, USDZAR - central bank to be nationalized, Gold supported by geopolitical risks, ExxonMobil, Shell, Total courting Qatar gas, Volvo - green from 2019, Nokia sharing patents with Xiaomi)

Short recap

Asia mostly in red

Europe opening higher

Trump in Poland to reassure about commitment to Eastern Europe through gas and military support

Before meeting with Putin

Also to outline the future relationship with Europe as such

FOMC Minutes show a split and no timing on balance sheet reduction

US ready to use force against North Korea but looking for a diplomatic solution

EUR experienced lower use as international currency and as a funding currency last year

Due to high hedging cost against its decline using swaps

Equities

ExxonMobil, Shell, Total getting closer to win the big share of a Qatar gas pie despite local tensions

Vantiv buying Worldpay for USD 10 bln

Marc Cohodes known for his short selling activities now targets Exchange Income after taking on Valeant and Home Capital previously

Stating that rich dividend is not supported

Novo Nordisk having some safety issues with insulin pens in Canada

Nokia signing a patent deal with Xiaomi (guys don’t forget that Nokia is sitting on thousands of patents that can/do bring a nice cash flow)

Car sharing biz getting tougher as Avis’ Zipcar leaves Austrian market after Car2Go (Daimler) and DriveNow (BMW, Sixt) are tough to take on

Volvo to sell hybrid or electric cars from 2019 only

Such moves to create pressure within the industry as well as on auto parts producers

Tesla breaking down the rising trendline on lower demand

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.47%

DXY

Support at 94.70 (76.4% Fibo)

Resistance at 96.44 (61.8% Fibo)

EURUSD

Market watching 1.1300 (post election high) on the back of recent correction and today’s ECB Minutes

10 DMA at 1.1336 and 1.1344 (38.2% hourly Fibo) providing some support

Further resistance/support levels come from hourly Ichimoku

But large expiring options sitting at 1.1290/00 (EUR 2.1 bln), 1.1320/30 (EUR 1.5 bln)

USDJPY

Flat yields helped to mute the move higher

Resistance from declining trendline

Support at 112.24 (61.8% Fibo), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo)

USDZAR

Yesterday’s announcement of intention to nationalize the South African central bank which is privately held

Pushed the cross spiking to 13.5000

Resistance 13.4253 (200 DMA) and 13.5547 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 13.3166 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting support from geopolitical risks

After the sell off and JPY stabilisation

Support at 1214

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

Data/Events

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Williams (0745 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1400 GMT)

Fed’s Fischer (2330 GMT)

July 7 – US NFPs

July 7 – Fed to publish its semi-annual report on mon pol (1500 GMT)

July 7/8 – G20 meeting

Trump meeting Putin while Merkel hosting them

Trump readying for a steel fight and withdraw from international talks on financial regulation

July 12 – Yellen testifying before Congress (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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June 15, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower

Europe opening lower

FOMC – more hawkish than expected

Inflation expectations adjusted but Yellen sees a good ground for prices to keep rising

Likely start to taper in Sep, another rate hike in Dec

Some may ask why Fed doesn’t want inflation to overshoot

Trump under investigation for obstruction of justice

Looks like they are still trying to find something on him or is he really such a mess…?

ECB’s Nowotny questioning 2% inflation target as tons of money still not pushing prices to the target

Equities

Nokia entering the router market, where Juniper and Cisco do well, by launching the fastest network chips

Rosneft going offshore

Private equity eager investors pump USD 7 bln to new fund from Goldman Sachs

Bank of America sees opportunities in international cash management

US banks eying Saudi’s market as Morgan Stanley and Citi are there, and Goldman Sachs applying for a license

Looks like few reforms, upcoming Aramco IPO, Trump’s visit can make Saudi Arabia an investment destination

Google reached an agreement with Indonesia over future tax payments (I like this one…who wouldn’t like to cap the upcoming tax bill)

Thomson Reuters launching a set up to offer its data flow via blockchain technology

So the firms can use Ethereum and Corda based trading systems with Reuters data

US financials, especially life insurers, to benefit from rising rates

While utilities, telcos and real estate on short term negative side

Resources stocks to offer an interesting value

In particular energy but need some credit events and cleaning within the space

Canadian Natural Resources, AltaGas, Roxgold can be looked at

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.14% - yield development is crucial for further direction of EURUSD and USDJPY

10-yr Bund yield at 0.23%

EURUSD

What’s next? 1.0500 again or 1.1500? …asked the questions yesterday but today too…

Consolidation lower after FOMC is on the cards

Resistance at 1.1231 (10 DMA) with sellers sitting around

Then 1.1300 (based on FOMC price action)

Support at 1.1200, 1.1180 (23.6% Fibo) and 1.1120 (38.2% Fibo) but strong at 1.1013 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Bids sitting between 109-109.50

Offers seen going to 110.00

With decent options expiring today and tomorrow at this level

Crucial resistance at 110.50 (61.8% Fibo) and 110.61 (200 DMA)

Support at 109.60 (76.4% Fibo), then at 108.12

Upcoming Data/Events

Basel Committee concluding meeting over bank rules

ECB’s Draghi and Coeure at Eurogroup meeting

Greece – any resolution? Again at least temporary?

Fri – Fed’s Kaplan speaking

June 18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections

June 19 – Brexit talks starting ?

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

  

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May 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia effected by China downgrade

Europe opening lower

Markets shifting focus from risk off set up to June FOMC meeting

1^st Trump budget sent to Congress, being ignored as such?

Moody’s downgraded China to A1 from AA3, outlook to stable from negative

On the back of debt burden and its implications on public finances, and slowing growth

Only 12% of debt owned by foreigners, should not send shock waves across EM

Bernanke – BoJ should coordinate fiscal spending plan with gov to reach 2% inflation

While staying debt neutral

US housing on track

Equities

Bunge declined any talks with Glencore 

FiatChrysler officially facing an emission cheating legal action

Apple and Nokia friends and in love again, Apple looking to buy more from Nokia

Or more tighter partnership coming? Health, patents, royalties…

Shell selling its stake in Canadian Natural (CAD 4.1 bln)

Cyber security demand pleasing BlackBerry

McDonald’s to face some protests about wages, unions

HP should benefit from more stability in PC market and effects of restructuring

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41%

Market getting more comfortable with June rate hike (probability of 78%, two more hikes this year probability at 43%)

As the yield in 52-week bill auction comes to 1.145%, highest since 2008

And 2-yr note at 1.316% (strong auction) highest since 2008 (May 10 high at 1.360%)

EURUSD

US yields helped USD

Still need a deeper break of 100 HMA at 1.1182

Support clinging around 1.1160 with orders sitting there

But market is looking at 1.1100 now

Market keeps speculating about ECB change of rhetoric at June 8 meeting

Despite recent speeches by officials - not open to such thoughts: QE taper first, then rate hikes

USDJPY

Offers likely above 112.00 (38.2% Fibo at 111.98 and USD 2.6 bln option with strike at 112.00 expiring today)

Ichimoku at 111.81, bids likely below 111.70

50 DMA at 111.32 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore down approx. 7% on China downgrade

While its inventories keep rising in China

Prices hitting the lows of the cycle, negatively impacting AUD as well

Crude oil

Oil remains bid but further rise is limited due to US shale and slowing China

Crucial whether the potential cut is also on export side, not just in production

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2200 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari

FOMC Minutes – to bring a bit of hawkish tone as Fed feels that Q1 data were transitory

Minutes remind market that Fed is on the watch list going to June meeting again

Focus on interpretation of inflation, taper strategy and job market (slack/no slack)

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

OPEC meeting 0800 GMT

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting 1300 GMT

OPEC Joint press conference 1500 GMT

Full schedule  link

Expect headlines as attendees arrive

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 27, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia started on a bad note but recouped the losses

EU markets opened higher

Trump not to cut social welfare programs: Social Security and Medicare

US Treasury Sec Mnuchin – fiscal stimulus impact this year muted (not helping USD and yields)

Busy week with plenty of Fed speakers to be watched for clues on Mar 15 rate hike (priced at 40%)

If there are no really strong comments, especially from Yellen on Friday, we should look at May or June meeting rate hike

Chinese Navy will benefit from rich funding as China to challenge US on the sea

Speculative longs in WTI from HFs reaching new high at 443 mln barrels

Russell 2000 lagging S&P 500 on fiscal stimulus delayed till end of summer or later

Note that small to medium caps will benefit more from fiscal stimulus, thus are much more sensitive to any news

LSE & Deutsche Borse merger unlikely getting approved by EU Commission

Nokia 3310 is back (by the way, I love my BlackBerry Bold…)

Stada is opening the books as a part of acquisition process

Bond yields hitting the lows on risk off and disappointment on Trump

10 yr US Trys yield at support level of the 2.31-2.55% range

GBP not feeling well on a risk of new Scottish referendum

EURUSD still in a range of going nowhere (1.0500-1.0680)

With 1.0500 super strong and battle ground within the range of 1.0500-1.0520 on the downside

Trump’s speech or US PCE inflation can shed some light on further direction

USDJPY – still very sensitive and may react strongly on Trump if we see lots of pro-inflationary talk that will spur the yields rise

Below 1125.50 we have next target 111.60 if Trump doesn’t deliver

Take a not of shrinking Ichimoku cloud on daily chart

Market may be pre-positioning for disappointment

May hit 110 or 115 (chance are widely open)

Vols pretty cheap either direction

Gold – 200 DMA at 1262 ahead of us

May see some profit taking ahead of Trump tomorrow

Fibo levels: 1250 (50%) and 1279 (61.8%)

Data

Mon:

EZ: Business Climate Indicator – to decline slightly

EZ: Consumer confidence – to decline more

US: Durable Goods Orders – to rise

US: Pending home sales – expecting 1% increase

Fed’s Kaplan (1600) – Q&A session

Tue:

2^nd estimate of US GDP expecting at 2.1% vs 1.9% last month

US: Consumer confidence – expecting no change

US: House prices – expecting 5.3%

Fed’s Williams, Bullard speaking

Trump at joint session of Congress (0200-0330 Wed)

Likely to express opinions and plans closer to Congress way of thinking than his ideas from presidential campaign

Wed:

US: Consumer spending – expecting 0.3% increase

US: Personal income – expecting 0.3% higher

ISM Manufacturing – expecting no change

Fed’s Kaplan, Brainard speaking

Beige Book

Thu:

Fed’s Mester speaking

Fri:

US: ISM Non-manufacturing activity index – expecting no change

US: NFPs only next week on Mar 10

Fed’s Yellen, Evans, Lacker, Powell, Fisher speaking

Super Wednesday Mar 15, 2017

Dutch elections

FOMC meeting

US debt ceiling deadline – if no agreement is reached as of Mar 16 the USD 20.1 trillion limit on federal debt is in place

What will stop Trump from his stimulus plans until the deal with Republicans is agreed

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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