Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday

On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood

Europe opening flat to higher

ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift

But still not major change in wording

Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities

Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)

Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily

11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)

Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

Equities

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance getting stronger

Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty

IKEA to keep up investments

Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly

General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction

But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)

Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well

Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war

Tech, financials, industrial doing the best

S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)

Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735

Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745

Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)

Strong support 11 866

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link

USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)

Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….

How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link

EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555

Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…

…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500

USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction

Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)

Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?

Source: Saxo Bank

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link

Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link

OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link

2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day

Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October

Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register

Data/events

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting

US NFPs

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)

Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)

Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 25, 2018 - Market Update (Trump up, Mnuchin down but market is concerned about who will buy US debt; ECB - just up is a problem but Draghi likely not to say anything again); EURUSD set to check 1.2500; Weaker USD good for equities; Gold - make or brake the 1380, then 1484...?; BofA with most blockchain patents; Qualcomm fined USD 1.2 bln by EU; Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel

Short recap

Asia mixed to lower

Europe opening lower

Trump a year ago – USD strength means confidence in US and his presidency

Mnuchin yesterday – USD weakness good for US economy

…and market took it as a future direction of US policy

In other words the US trade war has begun and weak USD is part of it

Market is concerned about widening current account deficit (a problem for USD)

But bigger one is that there are still less and less international investors who like to buy Trys

IMF’s Lagarde – USD value determined by markets

Bitcoin buyers getting more ground

China to tighten control over offshore private equity fundraising

Mexican drug cartels stealing fuel from refineries (USD 1 bln of lost government revenues)

ECB today

Lots of speculations about policy shift – not expecting any change, may be some word playing in March

Recent move in EUR creating some headaches for ECB as inflation levels still low

Unlikely ECB will come up with something hawkish, we need to wait until summer

So growth and inflation have more time to surprise

Draghi to touch FX rates with dovish comments after recent rise in EUR

EUR not overvalued

S&P – strong EUR to delay tapering

EURUSD

USD still under pressure with psychological 1.2500 in sight

Likely to test important 1.2516 (38.2% Fibo of 1.6038/1.0340 move)

Then 1.2597 (61.8% Fibo of 1.3992/1.0340 move)

Support from descending trendline (highs 2008, 2011, 2014)

The 1.2400 may help to push some longs off, to open door towards 1.2300-90 zone

1.2166 (50.0% Fibo), then 1.2092

USDJPY

Interest in USD from importers and retail after o/n decline

Bids sitting at 108.50

Large options (USD 2.3 bln) with strike at 110.00 expiring today

Support 109.06 (76.4% Fibo) and 108.12 & 107.31 lows

Resistance 110.14 (61.8% Fibo)

Equities

Lower USD = higher global equities for time being…

As we have easier credit conditions

And profits of US companies artificially higher due to weaker USD

BofA owning more blockchain patents than peers

SEC looking into GE’s huge insurance charge

Company planning to sell USD 20 bln of assets

Goldman Sachs and Citibank shortlisted to bid for metal business of Scotiabank

EU fines Qualcomm (USD 1.2 bln)

Bombardier and Boeing to hear decision over dispute on Friday

Earnings

Reporting today: Biogen, 3M, Caterpillar, Intel (update on security issues), Western Digital, Celgene, Starbucks

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.64% vs 2.62% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.58% vs 0.56% yesterday

No boom to doom for central Europe's bonds when ECB stimulus ends  link

Gold

Facing strong resistance zone where it got rejected in 2014/16/17

Mnuchin, weak USD, inflation up, geopolitical risks supporting gold

More investors using gold as a hedge for potential spike in volatility

With HFs aggressively buying since Dec

Resistance 1375 high, 1380 (38.2% Fibo), 1484 (50.0% Fibo) both based on 2011/15 decline

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB rate decision

Jan 26 – Trump speaking in Davos (1300 GMT)

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Trump to announce an infrastructure plan but is not clear who would build the infrastructure

Because of his anti-immigration policies, may be Norwegian workers

But having no idea how many of them will come

Also to announce a new security policy moving away from fighting terrorism

And focussing on challenges from growing military strength of Russia and China (more military spending coming)

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 3 – Powell taking office as Fed Chair (he is lawyer and not economist)

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 24, 2017 - Market Update (Quiet unless..., Chinese stocks steady after two day selloff, Saudis opening local stock market for small foreign funds, May in Brussels at Brexit grilling party, Ireland to veto border but government may collapse first, Flying lifts from Thyssenkrupp, USDJPY through 111.00 towards 110.00 or back to 112.50?, GBPUSD hitting the resistance at 1.3335)

Short recap

Asian with wake up call from China

Europe opening flat to higher

FOMC and ECB Minutes left the market without any illusions

Fed likely to be more dovish, ECB still on split over QE end

Germany – Socialists under strong pressure to form government

France – US corporates like Macron story, likely to increase investments in FR

Brexit – May meeting Tusk in Brussels today

Likely to double Brexit bill

Ireland asking for a written commitment from UK on hard border with Northern Ireland

Otherwise may veto UK Brexit talks progress

Irish government about to collapse

GBPUSD chart below..

Equities

Trading likely in a quiet mode

Chinese equities steady after the sell off last two days

Correction likely to continue

Bond market also experiencing the retreat

Saudi Arabia to allow small foreign funds to invest in local stocks

Thyssenkrupp enjoying high demand for next-generation lifts and car components

A Decade Later: What $1K Invested in These Stocks is Worth Today  link

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

USDJPY

Risk at lower side as Fed may be more dovish than market may have thought

Bids sitting above 111.00

Bearish view would be confirmed by a close below 111.00

What will open focus at support around 110.00 level (61.8% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Be aware of the difficulty to break below 111.00, if not broken we can refocus back towards 112.50

If it is the case, the bearish bias likely to change to bullish one as Ichimoku shows

Resistance around 111.65/70 (100 & 200 DMA), 111.90 (38.2% Fibo), Ichimoku cloud

Source: Saxo Bank

GBPUSD

Holding above 1.3250 (50 DMA), 1.3224 (10 DMA)

1.3137 (100 DMA) and ascending trendline (strong support)

Resistance at 1.3335 but lets watch the outcome of May-Tusk meeting

Dec 4 a deadline for preparation for Dec 14-15 EU Summit

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day (closing at 1800 GMT)

May visiting Brussels

Eastern Partnership Summint in Brussels – Ukraine a part of Schengen?

ECB’s Coeure (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Nouy (1030 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Galhau (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1815 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 9, 2017 - Market Update (Brexit saga continues - EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to come up with something, GE signing deals (USD 3.5 bln) in China Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales, 10-yr Trys yield key levels 2.27% & 2.50% to show DXY direction, EURUSD cluelessly waiting for US yields and stocks, Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening higher

US tax reform in place likely in 2019 on respecting proper budget rules

TPP – 11 countries at the table and discussing

UAE investigating financial transactions/assets of 19 Saudis at its banks

Brexit saga – EU giving UK 2-3 weeks to bring the bill otherwise not able to prepare for Dec summit

US & SoKo Navy to launch drills near Korean peninsula

Equities

General Electric signed 3 deals in China (USD 3.5 bln)

Marks & Spencer speeding up stores closures on weak sales

The Banco Santander laying off 2000 employees as part of Banco Popular take over

Tencent buying 12% of Snap

Earnings

Walt Disney – theme park revenues to help

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33% vs 2.31% yesterday

Key levels 2.27% and 2.50% for further DXY direction

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33% vs 0.33% yesterday

EURUSD

Volatility is extremely low, only central banks drive the market

Market not sure which way to go

Currently near fair value according to Barclays

USD needs to speed up otherwise we are again back to nowhere

Thus US yields the key, eventually stocks

Expiring options of note with strike 1.1600 (EUR 1.7 bln), much more between 1.1650-1.1700

Stops sitting below 1.1550

Bids sitting above 1.1500

Resistance at 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1620 (200 HMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1590 (55 HMA), 1.1570/50, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Higher US yields and stocks helped

Offshore investor flows into Japanese stocks continue

Resistance at 113.78 (10 DMA), 114.40/50, 114.72

Support at 112.97 (23.6% Fibo)

Data/events

Busy day with ECB speakers but Draghi firmly laid down dovish view few two weeks ago...

Any surprise today? As number of opponents is growing...

ECB’s Noy (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1000 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1315 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1345 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1800 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1820 GMT)

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 8, 2017 - Market Update (EURUSD - H&S almost done, US yields not supporting further USD strength - a correction coming?, Oil - China demand lower on pollution cuts, Gold stuck in 1263-1282 range, ECB Governing Council meeting - watch the comments as more hawks on the Board, Apple - EU asked for more details about tax structure, Bitcoin an asset class?)

Short recap

Asia up

Europe opening lower

Trump in China to ask for China cutting financial ties with NoKo

US-Chinese companies signed USD 9 bln deals

USD impacted by headwinds/slowdown related to tax reform (implementation in 2019)

As the tax cuts will spike the budget deficit and will have only temporary effect on the economy (according to Fitch)

Brexit - EU preparing tough transition terms for UK (duration, scope and obligations)

According to CME Bitcoin is a new asset class, not crypto currency

ECB caught by bad loans in Italian banks

More leaning towards hawkish side what may support EUR

Equities

Apple – EU asked for details about tax structure

Monte dei Paschi in profit after some one off items (Q3)

Qualcomm-Broadcom merger under Chinese scrutiny

Valeant profits up

Funo (BoJ) – Japan stock prices not overheating, reflect global investments and corporate earnings

Nikkei 225 close to level last seen in 1992 on relatively low valuations, profit growth and weak JPY

Are US stocks too high?

As mentioned few days ago, the sentiment index (bulls/bears ratio) is close to 1987 highs what may be seen as bears completely giving up. Would feel like there are no more bears left to be converted to bulls and push the market higher. What’s next?

Yes, the valuations (S&P 500 with 19x forward PE) are high but we need a trigger. Is it going to be a weakness in US economy or substantial increase in rates? We believe that missing higher yielding alternatives than dividends are behind all low volatility and investors not caring. Of course US companies do well from earnings and revenue perspective but we truly lack an alternative. Even thought Fed is on a hike path, the bond yield remains flat, thus not attractive enough to trigger a cyclical rotation of capital.

Techs (lately Apple) do support the rally heading towards Christmas. A small correction or hesitation may come on the back of Trump tax reform hurdles. US macro is good, EBITDA at higher than in 2007, revenues growing almost 11% y/y as weaker USD gave a hand.

S&P 500 - we see a divergence on a daily chart, moving higher in a narrow channel and any decisive break up/down can start the correction.

Volatility is at extreme lows again prompting a China story from Aug 2015 to our minds. If you feel so, check this out…

 Warren Buffett’s favorite market metric suggests investors are ‘playing with fire’  link

 …and you may get some chips off the table now.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.31% - very low, not lending any support to USD vs EUR, JPY

10-yr Bund yield at 0.33%

Periphery saw rally yesterday with Bunds almost unchanged

IT/PT to Bunds spread keeps declining

EURUSD

USD on negative, not helped by low US rates

As the yields remain low, USD need positive news from data or tax reform effort

Otherwise the recent USD rally is due for correction

H&S formation almost complete, Bear sitting above 1.1600 level

Resistance at 1.1595 (55 HMA), 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1615 (high from May 2016), 1.1623 (10 DMA), 1.1658 (200 WMA), 1.1670 and descending trendline connecting the lows of Oct 2008, Jul 2012

Support at 1.1550, 1.1500, 1.1490 (61.8% Fibo)

USDJPY

Heavy activity expected above 114.00

As there are bids from lows and above 114.00

Nikkei 225 to test 23 000 level

Goldman Sachs looking to invest in Japan

Resistance at 114.40/50

Support at 113.82 (10 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Oil

Crack on corruption and fight for power a new daily norm in Saudis

Speculative demand for front end contracts (backwardation) drives oil higher

While sellers sitting on sidelines and supply unaffected

Be aware that this speculative longs may create a misleading feeling about market tightening

Geo political risks to support oil further along with likely OPEC cuts extension

Overnight corrected on lower China imports as country is reducing production due to pollution over winter months

EVs can create a plateau in 2030

Gold

Stuck between 1263 (61.8% Fibo) and 1282 (50.0% Fibo)

Sitting above 1277 (100 DMA) with further level of note 1300/1306

Which may be in focus once 1282 is broken and net sellers turn to buyers

Data/events

ECB Governing Council meeting

To watch any comment as more officials lean to hawkish side

Are US rates dependent on the height of the Chair? Enjoy...  link

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 26, 2017 - Market Update (ECB day today but should they do anything?, Turkish CB in the spotlight too, EURUSD range 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+, Airbus-Bombardier deal a China story?, Brazil yields up on elections risk, VIX to loo for too long - recall the Aug 2015 China blow...)

Short recap

Asia flat

Europe opening flat

China going for USD denominated bonds again (first issue from 2004)

ECB day today - lots of uncertainties around QE cut back (low inflation, strong EUR vs growing economy)

Still not clear whether ECB should do it today or not

A Turkish Central Bank announcement important today

As there are speculations about Germany (EU) to cut funding for Turkey

Equities

GaxoSmithKline likely to boost their consumer health business via acquisitions

Airbus deal with Bombardier might have had more to do

With technology and production shift to China than with Boeing

As some Chinese investors were looking at Bombardier as well

Earnings

Microsoft – expecting higher revenue on cloud business

Alphabet – expecting higher revenue on mobile, YouTube, Play Store and cloud

Intel – to benefit from stable PC market and very good growth from data centers

Amazon.com – retail and cloud should help while new markets and acquisitions weight

Ford – question is how the weak sales in Europe and Chine effect the results

Planning to cut USD 14 bln and focus more trucks and electric/hybrid cars

Newmont Mining – market is looking at higher revenue on more effective production of gold

Teck Resources – expecting a nice surprise on higher prices of coal, zinc and cooper

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.43%, above technical 2.40% level

10-yr Bund yield at 0.48%

Brazil – the yields highlight upcoming volatility before next year’s presidential elections

Stocks at records highs, BRL is stable but investors are getting nervous whether new president

Will keep up with reform process

VIX

What a nice ride for all of those who bet on falling risk

But…things may change, be aware of that

As the Chinese blow out from Aug 2015 shows

What about VIX spiking again 96% ?

Source: Saxo Bank

EURUSD

Easy hawkish surprise but difficult to sell the market dovish view

Draghi to have a hard time to talk down EUR based on ongoing price action despite higher US yields

Saw some short covering going to ECB & because of new question marks appeared around US tax reform

Markets expect dovish taper

See range of 1.1660-1.1860/1.1900+

Resistance at 1.1850 (50 DMA), 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Support at 1.1793 (10 DMA), 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1750/60, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Selling interest above 114.00

Huge expiring options with strikes 113.50-80 and 114.50/115.00

Bids a 113.50, more towards 113.00 with stops below

Support at 112.99 (10 DMA)

Trading around descending trendline after getting close to recent high at 114.50 from July

Gold

Taylor or Powell ? Taylor can make a hit on gold

As he favours quicker rate hikes and return back to normal

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1285 (10 DMA)

Support at 1275 (100 DMA)

Data/events

ECB (1145 & 1230 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari (1430 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Praet (0715 GMT)

Trump announcing a new Fed chair

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 16, 2017 - Market Update (May urgently in Brussels ahead of EU Summit, Austrian elections outcome a non event as no exit EU talk, ECB's QE limit at 2.5 trln?, Aramco's private shares sale instead of IPO, Volkswagen short of cobalt supplies, Tech to benefit from corporate spending but position adjustments imminent, USDJPY weekly - not great for bulls but DXY holding above lows may give a hand)

Short recap

Asia up
Europe opening higher

Governor of PBOC Zhou bullish on Chinese economy ahead of Congress

Austria turning populist to far right but no exit EU talk

To challenge Macron’s view of more Europe, tough on immigration…etc.

Catalonia ready for talks with Spain but no mentioning of declaration of independence

Iraqi military in control of Kurdish oil fields

ECB’s QE limited at EUR 2.5 trln ?  link

Fed’s Yellen monitoring inflation, economy strong, gradual hikes appropriate

Fed’s Rosengren ok with Dec hike and 3-4 more hikes next year

BoJ’s Kuroda – markets overlooking the geopolitical risks

May taking it seriously and making unannounced trip to Brussels to meet with Barnier and Juncker today  ahead of EU Summit Oct 19-20  link

Equities

Atlantia increasing offer for Abertis to EUR 17.8 bln to stretch muscles over ACS’s offer

SWIFT holding an annual meeting with focus on cyber security

Aramco may go for a private share sale instead of IPO

With sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors taking advantage

Volkswagen having issues to secure stable cobalt supply in a long run

What is another sign of strong competition in electric vehicles field

Glencore, China Molybdenum, Vale are largest producers of cobalt

Earnings

Tech companies to benefit from higher corporate spending

But are a bit overstretched after rally from Sep

May see some position adjusting ahead of next week releases

Mon – Netflix

Tue – MS, GS, IBM, J&J

Wed – American Express, Atlas Copco, eBay, P&G

Thu – Unilever, SAP

Fri – GE, Daimler

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.29%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

COT report as of last Tue

Specs decreased bearish USD positions

EUR longs at 98k vs 91k previous week

JPY shorts at 101k vs 85k previous week

GBP longs at 15k vs 20k previous week

EURUSD

Dovish Draghi, hawkish Yellen, Merkel’s party loss pushed cross lower at the open

Traders noted stops below 1.1790 with bids sitting around 1.1755/65

Resistance at 1.1845 (50 DMA)1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1880 (break can open short term higher), 1.1910

Support at 1.1783 (200 HMA), 1.1780 (10 DMA), 1.1750, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

USDJPY

Keeps heavy after US CPI miss on Fri

112.00 kept by expiring options

Bids sitting at 111.50 while offers above 112.10

Resistance at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 111.83 (200 WMA), 112.15 (50 WMA)

Support at 111.78 (200 DMA)

Weekly chart - not great from bulls perspective

but DXY is telling a different story as long as last week low holds

Data/events

EU Foreign Affairs Council

UK’s May, Davis meeting EU’s Juncker, Barnier

ECB’s Angeloni (1300 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1800 GMT)

Tue

ECB’s Constancio (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (0930 MT)

Fed’s Harker (1700 GMT)

Wed

ECB’s Draghi (0810 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Duddley (1200 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1200 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Hirtle

Fed’s Fischer

Thu

Fed’s George (1330 GMT)

Fri

BoJ’s Kuroda (0635 GMT)

Fed’s Mester (1800 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen (2330 GMT)

Oct 18-20  – China National Congress

Oct 19-20 – EU Summit (Brexit to be heavily debated)

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Oct 6, 2017 - Market Update (Biz moving out making Catalonian politicians to think twice as Quebec is a nice example, NFPs & DXY - Good number Ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that, EURUSD watching 1.1662 & 1.1615/05, USDJPY ready to test 113.25 & 113.37, Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation/debt)

Short recap

Asia up, inspired by US stocks printing new highs on tax reform hopes

EU opening higher

Republicans moving on taxes, Fed warning of inflation and unsustainable debt

IMF still supports accommodative policy from ECB, BoJ

Italian CB asking ECB to soften bad-loan plans

ECB to put legal restrictions on ICOs

Bitcoin may fall to their jurisdiction anyway

But ICOs is a more securities area than monetary

Monday - US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Spain to issue decree enabling firms to move their legal bases out of Catalonia easily

Catalonian politicians should think twice about independence as history of Quebec referendums shows. The QC voters scarred businesses in 1980 & 1995 so much, that  Bank of Montreal, Royal Bank of Canada and Sun Life Financial moved to Toronto. Toronto also replaced Montreal as the most populous city in Canada later on.

Equities

IBEX witnessed a correction yesterday

And Catalan leaders may soften the stance as business is moving out

E.g. biggest Catalan bank Sabadell moved HQ to Alicante with immediate effect

Boeing-JetBlue should be out with a small hybrid-electric plane in 2022

Aramco’s IPO in 2018 on track

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.45%

DXY

NFPs likely to have a very low negative impact on USD as tax reform moves on

Good number ok, bad number…because of hurricanes…as simple as that

Resistance at 94.02 (23.6% Fibo), 94.41 (100 DMA)

Support at 93.20 (10 DMA), 92.77 (50 DMA)

EURUSD

Leverage names were selling from around 1.1700

Resistance at 1.1708 (200 WMA), 1.1714, 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1762 (10 DMA), 1.1780, 1.1812 (10 DMA)

Support at 1.1662, 1.1615, critical 1.1605 (50.0% Fibo), 1.1594 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Breaking recent highs may open the door to go above 113.00

With resistance at 113.25 followed by 113.57, then 114.49

Support at 112.57 (10 DMA), 111.92 (200 DMA)

GBPUSD

Cable under pressure from May’s weak position within her party

1.3000 first level to watch, then 1.2943

On no Brexit deal risk can go to 1.26000 according to HSBC

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1273 (100 DMA), 1280 (10 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo),

Support strong at 1268 (38.2% Fibo of Dec-Sep rally), 1263 (61.8% Fibo), 1253 (200 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

US NFPs – 90k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev; 2.5% y/y

Despite Americans filling less for unemployment benefits

Hurricanes impact still casting a shadow over labour market

Fed’s Bostic (0915 GMT)

Fed’s Rosengren (1145 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1215 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Bullard (1300 GMT)

Oct 9 – US/CA markets closed on account of Columbus day/Thanksgiving

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Sep 14, 2017 - Market Update (Trump maturing, ECB not in a rush to hike, DAX at crucial 12 500, Back to Trump trade?, EURUSD at support zone 1.1 870/80, Amazon.com to sell sombreros, Munich Re hit by hurricanes, Oracle in the cloud)

Short recap

Asian down on weaker Chinese data

Europe opening mixed

Trump getting more experienced (less tweeting)

And starting meeting people (like Rep/Dem leaders) to move things forward

ECB to keep a steady hand on easy policy as inflation stays very low

Chinese steel mills production reaching record highs

Bitcoin on a weak foot after JPMorgan’s Dimon fraud comment

Historically, it is not the high valuations that trigger the stock market correction but the change in macro

Thus China and credit markets holding the key

Equities

EU short of EUR 5.4 bln from taxes from Google and Facebook

DAX at 12 500 – a crucial for further development

Apple likely to face delays in iPhone X shipping going to holiday season

Amazon.com to build a huge warehouse in Mexico

Kaspersky on the way out of US gov networks

Volkswagen along with FAW, SAIC recalling 4.9 mln cars

Munich Re hit by hurricanes

Oracle reporting today, market to check how successful their cloud business is. Expecting rise in revenue.

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.19% - seems comfortable within the 2.10-30 range

10-yr Bund yield at 0.40%

DXY

Can we expect a return of Trump trade? Tax reform, infrastructure and capital repatriation

All pointing to stronger economy and higher USD…

Strong support at 91.88 (2016 low), then 92.16 (10 DMA)

Resistance at 93.36 (50 DMA) and strong one at 92.74 (200 WMA)

EURUSD

Sitting at strong support zone 1.1870/80

Support provided also from rising trendline (since April) and 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo)

Next support 1.1752 (50 DMA), 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance at 1.1931 (10 DMA), 1.1940 (55 HMA)

USDJPY

Trading above 110.00

Support at 110.40 (76.4% Fibo),

Resistance at 110.55 (50 DMA), 110.97 (61.8% Fibo), 111.23 (Ichimoku cloud), 111.15 (100 DMA)

Resistance comes also from rising trendline forming triangle

Gold

Gold lower on higher USD despite stocks correcting

Support around 1300 but market may be comfortable at 1315 as well

Resistance at 1333 (10 DMA)      

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (1530 GMT)

ECB’s Mersch (1600 GMT)

Fri

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (0815 GMT)

Sep 19-20 FOMC

Sep 21 – Brexit – a major speech from May expected

Is UK sort of reshuffling priorities or looking at a reset of talks?

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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