Oct 2, 2017 - Market Update (Catalan 90% vote, Johnson-May old friends, DAX attacking 12 954 on weaker EUR, 10-yr Trys yield bullish close, Global equity funds enjoying the money in rally)

Short recap

Asian up

Europe opening higher

Catalonian 90% vote for independence

Madrid and police not comfortable with it

Declaration of independence likely to come in 48 hours

Boris Johnson sees Theresa May gone within the year (friends…)

Boeing-Bombardier dispute a proof of UK-US Trump kind of preferential partnership

Warsh the new Fed’s head after meeting with Trump

Used to be a Fed gov (2006/11) but resigned over disagreement over bond buying

Other candidates might be: Yellen, Cohn, Powell, Hubbard

ECB close to tapering? What about the business and consumer confidence hitting multiyear highs…

Equities

Volkswagen making up the diesel scandal bill up to USD 30 bln

Global Logistic Properties buying Gazeley (USD 2.8 bln) to enter EU as a lucrative market

Germany eying to buy warplanes from Boeing

Bombardier goes short against Boeing but seals USD 1.7 bln deal with SpiceJet from India to sell 50 planes

Global equity funds still growing in size as investor poor money in

Cryptocurrency exchanges still facing the security and fraud issues

DAX to benefit from weaker EUR, next stop 12 954 or higher?

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.58% vs 2.58% on Friday – had a bullish close on Friday posting outside month/monthly reversal

10-yr Bund yield at 1.67% vs 1.07% on Friday

Spanish bonds - Catalan vote impact – we need to see market reaction first

As we balance between the independence and strong economy

COT report as of Tue last week

USD: Leveraged funds net sellers

Shorts at the highest level since May 2014

EUR: Largest net buying

Longs at 88k vs 62k previously

GBP: First net longs since Oct 2015

Longs 5k vs shorts 10k previously

EURUSD

Gapped lower but Catalan vote to have a short-lived impact

Unless we see a deep constitutional crisis in Spain

Support at 1.1762 (Ichimoku) 1.1720 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1708 (200 WMA)

Resistance at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1844 (50 DMA)

USDJPY

Worth of watching as DXY is getting some bullish signs

And Trump is moving with tax reform

Cross posted also a bullish monthly reversal on Friday

And trades above the descending trend line)

What may open the door towards 114.36-50 range (recent highs)

Or even 118.60/65 if we seen the Trump trade back

Resistance at 113.25

Support at 111.85 (23.6% Fibo), 112.28 (10 DMA)

Gold

Catalan vote had no major impact

Other geopolitical risks: NoKo, Kurdistan-Turkey, Iraq, Iran

Resistance at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Support at 1272 (100 DMA), 1263 (61.8% Fibo)

Data/events

ECB’s Linde (0930 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1015 & 1300 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1800 GMT)

Oct 1-4 – UK’s Tory party meeting

Oct 1-7 – Golden week holiday in China/Korea

Tue

Fed’s Powell

Thu

ECB Minutes

Fed’s Dudley

Fed’s Powell

Fed’s Williams

Fed’s Harker

Fri

US NFPs – 98k exp vs 156k prev

Unemployment rate at 4.4%

Earnings +0.3% vs +0.1% prev

Fed’s Bullard

Fed’s Kaplan

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 ECB

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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July 12, 2017 - Market Update (All about Yellen today, Merkel flying EUR high, Siemens chasing their turbines, Chinese banks another opportunity, Trump and Russia (but Junior this time), 10-yr Bund yields jumping above 0.60% mark)

Short recap

Europe opening higher

Trump Jr – Russia blow here but markets focus on Yellen

Trump administration constantly distracted, not focussing on proper work

Gary Cohn Trump’s candidate to replace Yellen

Fed’s Mester likes taper sooner rather than later

Merkel putting pressure on ECB to raise rates

JPM’s Dimon – taper can caught people by surprise

Chinese media speculations – PBOC should widen the 2% CNY daily trading band

Funds kept selling USDCNH overnight

Quarels as a Trump Fed nominee getting first oppose comments

Due to his ties to Wall Street and possibility that oversight of huge banks would be softer

Moody’s – Lack of clarity in Brexit making question marks around UK’s credibility

Equities

BlackRock - Investors need to take more risk  link

US asset managers underallocated EM stocks 

Total to invest USD 3.5 bln in Qatar offshore oil

Siemens chasing their turbines in Crimea even legally

Chinese banks underperformed their global peers but offer lower valuations and decent yields

Regulators were out saying the risk is in control

Snap hit by downgrade from Morgan Stanley (underwriter) on slower ad development

Instagram is biting in to Snap’s largest user base among young

Bonds

BoJ increased bond purchases in 3-5 yr space

10-yr Trys yield at 2.35% but 5-yr/10-yr may experience some correction after recent move higher (support around 2.30%)

10-yr Bund yield at 0.61% - sharp jump from around 0.55% after yesterday’s comments from Merkel

EURUSD

Merkel, Trump Jr. – Russia thing, dovish Fed comments behind the move

1.1450 broken, on the way to 1.1580 as short term longs were open

Likely looking at 1.1615 as long as 10 DMA (1.1407) not clearly broken on dips

Next the 1.1714 and 1.1750 may come

Bear in mind that any rally above 1.1600 is way overstretched and likely not lasting

All about Yellen today, watch especially her remarks on inflation

But market is very very complacent about Fed moving…

USDJPY

Resistance at 114.36 high

Stops at 113.50 hit but dip demand helped

Support at 113.30 (10 DMA), 113.05 (76.4% Fibo), descending trendline

Dips below 113.00 may be a good point to renter longs

But 112.00 level can serve as a stop level

Expiring options USD 1.3 bln between 113/114.00

Market is very long USDJPY but short gamma

And 50/100/200 DMA at 111.89/78/66 very close

Again all about Yellen today

Gold

Support at 1214 low held, no more technical selling through

Resistance at 1231 (200 DMA), 1234 (76.4% Fibo) and rising trendline

If broken along with 16.20 in Silver we can see more short covering

But Yellen today again…

Data/Events

Yellen testifying (1400 GMT) before Congress Committees today/tomorrow (prepared text to be released at 1230 GMT)

Likely to confirm the continuation of normalization

Do financial conditions continue to ease

Job market and inflation

Balance sheet reduction – suspension of reinvestment policy coming announcement in Sep ?

Another rate hike in Dec ? Currently priced at 49%

ECB’s Linde 

ECB’ Dalhau, Dombret

Fed Beige Book (1800 GMT)

Fed’s George (1815 GMT)

July 20 – ECB meeting

July 26 – FOMC meeting

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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