Oct 12, 2017 - Market Update (FOMC Minutes - debated inflation, JPMorgan & Citigroup reporting, Goldman Sachs back to investment banking?, EURUSD above 1.1830, heading to 1.2000 but..., CZK on the horse, Gold - which way now?, Homework time for Catalonia until Monday)

Short recap

Asia up reaching 10 yr high

Europe opening flat to lower

Spain gave until Monday Catalonia to drop independence

Otherwise will take over all powers over the autonomy region

Oil inventories rising even though OPEC is cutting production

FOMC Minutes – inflation debate intensified

Some patience to assess inflation path warranted

But others are looking at Dec hike

Doves and Hawks at Fed  chart

Repatriation tax rate at 10% according to Trump

Equities

A bit of reminder of .com area – A Biotech Company Changed Its Name to ‘Riot Blockchain’ and Its Stock Is Surging  link

Japanese equities may still look interesting but don’t forget that BoJ is still active in the market

Better days for banks ahead?  link

May get support from rising rates that will translate to higher profit margins

Citron (short seller) – looking to publish more of their research on Shopify

JPMorgan – should report a bit better results, focus on trading and loan business

Citigroup – expecting slight disappointment earnings

BlackRock enjoying the bull run as index investors take the AUM to USD 6 trln

Goldman Sachs looking to return to investment banking as it is looking for new deals

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.34%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.46%

Wealth manager warns on bond markets creating the 'biggest financial crisis of our lifetime'  link

Are bonds ready for a quick reversal as central banks look to remove QE?

Bond markets are at certain point illiquid

Guessing that ECB knows this one better as they have sometimes troubles to find suitable available bonds to buy

EURUSD

Catalonia is over for now, markets turning attention back to EZ macro

Back above 1.1830, opening the door for 1.2000

Resistance at 1.1910

Support at 1.1862 (23.6% Fibo), 1.1845 (100 DMA)

USDJPY

Resistance at 112.61 (10 DMA), 112.70 (Ichimoku turning line)

Support at 111.89 (200 DMA), 111.85 (23.6% Fibo)

EURCZK

CZK on the rising wave, now below 26.00

Resistance at 25.88 (10 DMA), 25.97

Support at 25.47

Bear in mind that it is still too early read the charts after CNB 27.00 floor adventure

But at least weekly chart can give us some clues where we are heading to

CNB sitting on tons of foreign reserves and now losing money

Some politicians calling for joining EUR

General elections taking place on Oct 20-21

 Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

Resistance at 1295/96 (highs), 1297 (50 DMA), 1299 (38.2% Fibo)

Support at 1281 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank 

Data/events

ECB’s Draghi (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Praet (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Brainard (1430 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (2000 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (2010 GMT)

Fri

Fed’s Rosengren (1230 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

Fed’s Evans (1425 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (1530 GMT)

Fed’s Powell (1700 GMT)

Oct 18 – China National Congress

Oct 22 – Japanese elections

Oct 26 – ECB

Nov 1 – FOMC

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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May 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia effected by China downgrade

Europe opening lower

Markets shifting focus from risk off set up to June FOMC meeting

1^st Trump budget sent to Congress, being ignored as such?

Moody’s downgraded China to A1 from AA3, outlook to stable from negative

On the back of debt burden and its implications on public finances, and slowing growth

Only 12% of debt owned by foreigners, should not send shock waves across EM

Bernanke – BoJ should coordinate fiscal spending plan with gov to reach 2% inflation

While staying debt neutral

US housing on track

Equities

Bunge declined any talks with Glencore 

FiatChrysler officially facing an emission cheating legal action

Apple and Nokia friends and in love again, Apple looking to buy more from Nokia

Or more tighter partnership coming? Health, patents, royalties…

Shell selling its stake in Canadian Natural (CAD 4.1 bln)

Cyber security demand pleasing BlackBerry

McDonald’s to face some protests about wages, unions

HP should benefit from more stability in PC market and effects of restructuring

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.28%%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.41%

Market getting more comfortable with June rate hike (probability of 78%, two more hikes this year probability at 43%)

As the yield in 52-week bill auction comes to 1.145%, highest since 2008

And 2-yr note at 1.316% (strong auction) highest since 2008 (May 10 high at 1.360%)

EURUSD

US yields helped USD

Still need a deeper break of 100 HMA at 1.1182

Support clinging around 1.1160 with orders sitting there

But market is looking at 1.1100 now

Market keeps speculating about ECB change of rhetoric at June 8 meeting

Despite recent speeches by officials - not open to such thoughts: QE taper first, then rate hikes

USDJPY

Offers likely above 112.00 (38.2% Fibo at 111.98 and USD 2.6 bln option with strike at 112.00 expiring today)

Ichimoku at 111.81, bids likely below 111.70

50 DMA at 111.32 and 50% Fibo at 111.24 acting as support

Iron ore down approx. 7% on China downgrade

While its inventories keep rising in China

Prices hitting the lows of the cycle, negatively impacting AUD as well

Crude oil

Oil remains bid but further rise is limited due to US shale and slowing China

Crucial whether the potential cut is also on export side, not just in production

Upcoming

ECB’s Praet (0830 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1245 GMT)

Fed’s Kaplan (2200 GMT)

Fed’s Kashkari

FOMC Minutes – to bring a bit of hawkish tone as Fed feels that Q1 data were transitory

Minutes remind market that Fed is on the watch list going to June meeting again

Focus on interpretation of inflation, taper strategy and job market (slack/no slack)

Thu – OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting

OPEC meeting 0800 GMT

OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting 1300 GMT

OPEC Joint press conference 1500 GMT

Full schedule  link

Expect headlines as attendees arrive

Fri – G7 meeting

May 31 – former FBI director James Comey to testify before Senate

June 8 – ECB meeting

June 8 – UK elections

June 11/18 – French Legislative (Parliamentary) elections (a big question mark for Macron to gain majority)

June 13/14 – FOMC meeting 

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 3, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia slightly higher

Europe opening higher

JPM and GS cut the US GDP outlook

Fed talking about shrinking of balance sheet in H2

Inflation heading lower in EU but higher in US (PCE)

Institutional investors lowered their exposure to US and UK equities on risks related to fading Trump rally and Brexit/UK brake-up risks

Poland to announce the purchase agreement of eight Patriot antimissile systems soon (USD 7.6 bln)

S&P 500 turning bearish?

Descending trendline but above 50 DMA

First rulings over Volkswagen emission scandal to come soon from German courts

Monsanto to report earnings on Wed, market expecting strong numbers

As farmers look at record planting of soybean and corn, South America doing well as well

Tesla shipped more cars than expected in Q1

Market looking at steeper production rise in H2

If that happens, stock price to move higher

BlackBerry surprised and proved that the move to more lucrative business software field was right decision

Boeing’s largest 787-10 Dreamliner successfully complete its first flight

CFTC speculative positions as of Mar 27:

EUR flat, massive liquidation of USD longs, significant reduction in JPY shorts, GBP keeps record shorts

WTI longs still liquidated

Oil – the sign of relief for bulls is the break of USD 51.95 and USD 54.45 (61.8% Fibo) in both WTI and Brent

EURUSD – support at 1.0570 (23.6% Fibo)

If broken likely to test the lows around 1.0340

DXY – support at trendline

Resistance at 100.50 and 101.00

USDJPY – USD might have run out of steam after reversal on Friday

Resistance at 112.16

Vols trading extremely low

Watch AUDJPY for any signs of downside and potential risk off hedge

10-yr Trys yield at 2.40% (sitting in a mid-range)

10-yr Bunds yield down to 0.32% on a strong change in the stance on inflation expectations and confirmation of ECB’s neutral position in policy tightening

Data

China on holiday until Wed

EZ: Unemployment to print new low

US: ISM Manufacturing Index expecting slightly lower

US: Construction market looking at higher number

Tue:

EU making a formal statement on Brexit about what they want to achieve

Wed:

FOMC Minutes

Thu:

ECB Draghi, Weidmann and Praet speaking (especially Draghi’s remarks on inflation will be closely watched)

ECB Minutes

Trump to meet Chinese president

Trump to use trade to wage on North Korea

Fri:

US NFPs

Fed Speakers this week:

William Dudley (Mon at 1430 GMT)

Patrick Harker (Mon at 1900 GMT)

Jaffrey Lacker (Mon)

Daniel Tarullo (Tue)

Fred Williams, James Bullard

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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