Mar 8, 2018 - Market Update (ECB bit hawkish, tomorrow's US NFPs' earnings bit weaker can push EURUSD above 1.2500; EURUSD weekly - a funny joke 1998-2000; Fed- 5 hikes in 2018?; S&P 500 still a bit rich but reasonably attractive; USD and US deficit correlating as before dot.com bubble; USD decline impacting reserve currency status; Aramco IPO going against OPEC?)

Short recap

Asia in green after strong US session yesterday

On Trump softer on tariffs – but do not get mislead by risk on mood

Europe opening flat to higher

ECB today likely to confirm a gradual shift

But still not major change in wording

Draghi to talk down any hawkish views despite strong EZ economy

Fed 4 hikes warranted, eventually 5 in 2018 according to DB Securities

Trump’s tariffs plan not signed yet (today?)

Canada & Mexico exempt temporarily

11 members to sign TPP (US withdrew from the deal)

Beige Book – prices rising, employment up moderately

Equities

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance getting stronger

Some Goldman Sachs’ employees on notice to move to Frankfurt amid Brexit uncertainty

IKEA to keep up investments

Boeing – tariffs unlikely to impact plane prices but can hurt sales strongly

General Electric still under pressure, valued at USD 125 bln (while in Jan 2018 at USD 580 bln)

S&P 500 still a bit rich after recent correction

But at reasonable to attractive levels based on P/B, P/E or dividend yield relative to 10-yr Trys yield (2.88%)

Improving earnings expectations and excess capital being returned to shareholders are supportive as well

Huge risks is coming from US economy bleeding from trade/tariffs war

Tech, financials, industrial doing the best

S&P 500

Strong resistance around 2800 level (high + 76.4% Fibo at 2795)

Resistance 2744 (61.8% Fibo), 2742 (50 DMA) and 2735

Support 2703 (50.0% Fibo), 2677 (100 DMA), 2663 (38.2% Fibo) and 2671

Source: Saxo Bank

DAX

Strong resistance around 12 745

Resistance 12 275 (76.4% Fibo & 10 DMA), 12 528 (61.8% Fibo)

Strong support 11 866

Source: Saxo Bank

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.88% vs 2.86% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.66% vs 0.68% yesterday

Interest rates are moving for the right reasons

This chart warns that the 30-year downtrend in interest rates may be over  link

USD following the US deficits again (budget and trade balance)

Remember the end of dot.com bubble? Quite similar….

How Corporate Debt Confirms The “Everything Bubble”  link

EURUSD

Resistance is fairly in place around 1.2555

Today a bit of sense of hawkishness from ECB and…

…tomorrow bit of weakness in earnings can push EUR above 1.2500

USD reaction to US tariffs will show further direction

Support 1.2318 (23.6% Fibo & 10 DMA), 1.2172 (38.2% Fibo), 1.2268 (10 DMA)

Weekly – anyone having fun with this chart?

Source: Saxo Bank

…but a Dollar decline rekindles reserve currency worries  link

Crude oil

Is Aramco share sale distorting OPEC policy?  link

OPEC cuts played well so far but the cost is losing market share to US shale

U.S. Oil Output Set to Average 10.7 Million Barrels a Day in 2018, Highest on Record  link

2018 oil output forecast to average 10.7 million barrels a day

Production expected to top 11 million barrels a day in October

Cryptos

SEC urging cryptocurrency exchanges to register

Data/events

ECB

Fri

BoJ meeting

US NFPs

Mar 12/13 – US bond auctions (10-/30- yr maturities)

Mar 21 – FOMC meeting (1 hike expected (market pricing at 86%) and 3 more in 2018 to be announced)

Mar 23 – US Fed gov spending deadline

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 13, 2018 - Commodity Weekly: Suffering commodity space offered nice trade opportunities

A great week for traders is behind, the volatility finally arrived to the commodity markets and more sectors had nice moves during this period. The biggest movers were in the Energy sector were oil and distillates joined the falling natural gas as the updated 2018/19 predictions of increasing US production surprised the markets. The Agri sector had on the other hand nice upside moves caused by weather worries.

Oil

The EIA last week surprised markets with increased estimates of oil production for 2018 and also 2019 by 320 and 330k bpd respectively. According to the updated estimates the US reached 10M bpd oil production already in the first week of February. This was more than 300k bpd more than a week before. The news triggered intensive selling but from the COT data covering positioning until end of Tuesday trading the reduction of speculative longs wasn’t significant. However the second half of the week probably brought some additional long covering. Technically the H&S pattern on daily WTI crude chart worked perfectly brining 5 dollars per barrel profit for short sellers. WTI closed the week below the psychological $60 level and now markets are eying the weekly inventories and the IEA monthly report (to be released on Tuesday) for more direction.

Corn

The grain sector got support from the drought in Argentina, significant for soybeans and corn while the wheat prices surged on the news of insufficient rains across the Great Plains made winter wheat struggling. Only 14% of Kansas wheat was in good or excellent conditions. For corn the USDA estimates lower production, higher consumption and lower stocks which is a perfect mix of bullish factors, however for the rally to be confirmed some key levels have yet to be broken. Last week the biggest obstacles were technical selling and farmers increased hedging activity. The levels to watch ahead are 365 and 370 for the closest corn contract.

Sugar

The two main Brazilian sugar producers announced last week that they are going to focus on ethanol production as much as possible given the fact that sugar is traded at 30% discount to ethanol. This kind of news usually should give boost to prices however the follow up was completely missing and the raw sugar prices were stuck in a tight range. The huge sugar production from India and the increasing European refined sugar supplies are still weighing on the market of the sweetener. However the huge speculative short positioning limits the space to open additional shorts and the market is currently ahead of the decision which direction to go: back into the broken trend-line or droping toward new lows.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016-2018. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Jan 18, 2018 - Market Update (Apple with USD 38 bln tax bill, bringing home USD 250 bln; Renault-Nissan a king over Volkswagen; Goldman Sachs dropping bond trading?; GE still on short side; Junk bonds spreads at record lows, China/Japan getting rid of Trys - nothing new; USDRUB floor between 55.70-56.00; Brent having hard time to stay above USD 70 mark; Biggest Bitcoin mines in China)

Short recap

Asia hitting record levels

Europe opening higher on bullish sentiment from US and Asia 

China growing too fast with respect to economic and pollution standards

Trump fighting back China with intellectual property breaches (likely getting ready for Davos)

Loud calls for EZ reform with new fiscal rules (GE) and joint safe assets (FR)

Equities

Cyber security start-ups having hard time

As very crowded market is moving fast and facing criminal predators, competition is a tough job

Volkswagen produced 10.7 mln cars last year

But the crown goes to alliance of Renault-Nissan though

Peugeot looking to come back to US market using know-how of Opel

Chinese interested in diabetes business from Johnson&Johnson (USD 3-4 bln)

Apple planning to open 2^nd Campus in US that is a part of 5-yr USD 30 bln investment package

And also repatriate USD 250 bln of overseas cash, thus paying USD 38 bln of taxes

Looking to create 20k jobs in US, focussing on data centers for iCloud, AppStore and Apple Music

Earnings

Goldman Sachs hit by a drop in bond trading

What makes question marks about keeping bond trading in current form

Or searching for new profit generating activities

Adjusted profit beat expectations but company is having harder time in trading than rivals

GE shares keep declining on USD 11 bln of charges and likelihood of a breakup

…already touched the GE story: Nov 15, 2017 – Story of the Week: Comparing old and new economy…General Electric and Tesla  link

Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, IBM, AMEX reporting

New US corporate tax cut should help earnings to be revised higher

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.59% vs 2.56% yesterday

10-yr Bund yield at 0.57% vs 0.55% yesterday

Not only China but also Japan is lowering their Trys holdings  link

Back in 2004/05 both China and Japan held 50% of all Trys held by foreigners

And now they do 36% only

Junk bonds - The Great Credit Dilemma: When to Quit After Historic Rally?  link

Corporate bonds too expensive to own, but too valuable to sell

Schroder, Aberdeen fund managers plot exit strategies

USDRUB

Rising oil makes Russian officials not comfortable with strong RUB

As we saw back in 2017, they are quite good at defending certain levels

Support at 56.20 and 55.72 (Apr 2017 low)

Resistance at 56.73 (10 DMA), 56.76 (Sep/Oct 2017 lows), 57.20 (23.6% Fibo)

USDRUB weekly

Source: Saxo Bank

Crude Oil

Supported by decline in private inventories in US

And attacks from rebels in Nigeria

EIA inventories and OPEC Monthly report out today

With speculations about another decline in oil stocks and substantial rise of shale production

Brent having difficulties to stay above USD 70 level

Support 69.06 (10 DMA), 68.19 (23.6% Fibo), 66.84 (38.2% Fibo), 64.91 (50 DMA)

To watch the 66.84 key level

Source: Saxo Bank

WTI

Support 63.15 (10 DMA), 62.75 (23.6% Fibo), 61.43 (38.2% Fibo), 58.77 (50 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Bitcoin miners locations

…or where is the cheap electricity and smart people are…

Data/events

ECB’s Weidmann (0800 GMT)

ECB’s Coeure (1430 GMT)

ECB’s Villeroy (1730 GMT)

Fed’ Mester (2305 GMT)

IMF’s Lagarde to speak today as well

Jan 19 – US fiscal deadline

Jan 23-26 – Trump in Davos with his crew

Will be interesting to see Macron/Merkel and the world

Against protectionism of Trump/US

Jan 23 – BoJ – any hints on potential taper?

Jan 25 - ECB

Jan 30 – US State of the Union

Trump to announce an infrastructure plan but is not clear who would build the infrastructure

Because of his anti-immigration policies

Jan 31 – FOMC

Feb 5 – Powell as Fed Chair

Feb 16 – Chinese New Year

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

  

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Jan 8, 2018 – Weekly Commodity – Commodity Index rebalancing may bring corrections this week

The second week of the year is usually about Commodity Index rebalancing. During this process Commodity Index funds adjust their portfolios to those indices they follow. This often results in buying the worse performing commodities and selling the high performers. Some commodities may see a short term bounce or drop but without fundamental support any correction will be short lived

Oil

The main topic on the ooil markets is the increasing compliance of OPEC members with the extented agreement to cap oil production, although this is in some cases forced by external factors as in case of Venezuela. How ever the effect is the same, at the ned of the equation containing less supply and rising demand the result can be only hogher prices. The positive mood is also supported by overall rise of manufacturing activity. The Energy sector overall maybe not loking that bright due to low Natural gas prices but the oil bulls seem to be driven by strong fundamentals. However WTI is currently testing a key resistance (or rather the top of resistance zone) which could be hard to break as technical sellers will increase activity – also dont forget about rebalancing as crude had a very good year in 2017 and positions need to be adjusted.

Weekly Chart WTI Crude

Corn

Grains in general had a bad year despite several attempts to bounce, no real trend reversal took place. The high ending stocks and concerns about weak US exports pushing prices down. There are fears that the USDA Wasde report will bring another weak export data although on the spot market the export premiums seem to move despite missing any support of freight prices. After corn prices drop again below 350 this opens the room for testing 340 or even 330 in the coming weeks.

Weekly Chart Chicago Corn Futures

Sugar

With the cancelled European sugar quotas the market doesn‘t have a bright future ahead. The prices in Europe are still strongly diverging from the global sugar markets altough the move will have to come after the minimum sugar prices in Europe where also ending with the quota system. The prices tested 15.50 twice and recently dropped back. Give the oversupply and missing any short term weather threats, sugar will probably revisit the bottom of the uptrend channel which could be also broken on the way to tes new lows this year however the prices at or below production cost will bring drop in supplies in the long run.

Weekly Chart Sugar No 11

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016.

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Dec 5, 2017 - Weekly Commodity: OPEC delivered extension now focus turning to US production & inventories

Commodities had a bad week caused primarily by correction in metals which couldn’t be compensated by slight bounce in Energy and Agriculture. The OPEC delivered extension of the production cut as the market expected, however as this was already priced in there wasn’t enough buying power to take prices to new highs.

As the huge rally from the end of summer was mainly based on the expectations that in Vienna the OPEC and the non-members lead by Russia will agree on the extension of the production cap, the news had limited impact last Thursday. The Friday move was likely just another reduction of short positions where some bears gave up. The biggest worries are now around the growing US oil production. While shale oil companies more and more seem to commit to growing shareholder value rather than market share, the US oil rig count and the US production is still on the rise. This can mean a hurdle in the efforts of OPEC and Russia to bring the market back to balance.

US Oil production – Source EIA and Land of Trading

The speculative positioning is extremely skewed toward the long side (763,786 longs vs 153,953 shorts) and such a concentration always brings the risk of a volatile squeeze. The effect of the extension of the supply cut on the inventories could be delayed according to Saudi oil minister by a seasonal decline in demand during winter. US oil rig counts published by Baker Hughes however keep growing currently at the highest levels since September.

CFTC COT Report NonCommercials positioning WTI

Technically we are in a strong resistance zone on WTI and after the OPEC deal was priced in well ahead, the market doesn’t seem to be strong enough to break much higher anytime soon. I expect the prices under the pressure of incoming bearish to drop back to previous supports before they would take off again.

WTI Weekly Chart

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Nov 29, 2017 - Market Update (OPEC day but will Russia, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria join? Preliminary Brexit bill EUR 50 bln, Gold attacking 1300 but..., EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, to prepare new black/grey lists, Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount, Bitcoin a threat to global economy?)

Short recap

Asia in green

Europe opening higher

OPEC day today with not only oil but energy stocks in focus

NoKo threating with new missile test again

But no reaction from the markets (a sign that conflict escalation is low for the time being)

Powell with dovish tilt, no change to rate path

HFs having hard time to earn money from bond and FX trading

And may move over to strategies of flattening of US yield curve and USD weakness next year

Brexit – rumours about preliminary exit bill agreement (UK agreed to pay much of EU bill, likely EUR 50 bln)

GBP on a stronger foot today

Senate vote on tax bill already on Thursday

EU to freeze funding for tax heavens, new black and grey list coming

Britain, Malta and Netherlands used for aggressive tax planning

Bitcoin above 10k (up 940% in 2017)

Not threatening the world economy by its seize but creating a psychological bubble

Equities

Goldman Sachs interested in metals trading arm of Scotiabank (USD 1 bln)

Softbank looking to buy Uber shares at 30% discount

Royal Dutch Shell partnering with car producers in installing super-fast chargers in Europe

Oil majors moving aggressively to shale 

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.35%

It's Time to Get Out of Emerging Asian Currencies: LGT  link  

Slower growth in China, U.S. tax reform are both set to weigh

Higher interest rates are already largely priced in

EURUSD

Resistance 1.1886 (61.8%)

Support 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo/10 DMA). 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014/15 decline)

USDJPY

Support 111.02 (50.0% Fibo)

Resistance 111.58 (100 DMA), 111.68 (200 DMA), 111.80 (10 DMA), 111.89 (38.2% Fibo)

Gold

Getting some support from NoKo provocations but needs more JPY strength to move higher

Dowside is limited on geopolitical and economic risks

Not able to break 1300 (Fibo, psychological resistance)

Next resistance 1306, 1313, 1321 (23.6% Fibo)

Support 1288 (10 DM), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1283-85 (50/100 DMA)

Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus  link

Data/events

OPEC meeting – to discuss cut extension and duration

Is Russia on the same page? As many independent producers may not necessarily obey the cuts

What about Iraq, Libya, Nigeria as they keep pumping

US inventories up while shale oil production rising

ECB’s Constancio (1000 GMT)

Fed’s Dudley (1330 GMT)

Fed’s Yellen hearing (1500 GMT)

ECB’s Weidmann (1700 GMT)

Fed’s Williams (1745 GMT)

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Dec 21 – BoJ

Dec 21 – Catalonia elections

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 28, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Oil bulls supported by Canadian supply disruption, Thursday OPEC meeting in focus

The last week was rather quiet due to Thanksgiving but we had some interesting moves in the commodity space due to unexpected events. First of all the tired oil bulls got some support from the Canadian supply disruption while the grain market was kept low due to huge ending stocks and good weather forecast from South America. We saw also a revival of the industrial metals on South American mine strikes and drop in LME stocks.

After the news that TransCanada will reduce supply by 85% for November due to pipeline leak the bulls tried another run and pushed WTI to new highs while reaction on Brent was subdued. The Spread between the two dropped below 5$ for a day but bounced back quickly. The market is watching OPEC meeting in Vienna this week and the final agreement about the extension of the production cut. The key player is Russia this time as showed reluctance to extend the deal however market priced in 6-9 month extension. If the cartel and Russia fails to agree on this at least, oil may see a significant drop, while the upside potential is limited by already large speculative long and potential shale hedging activity.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent.

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016.

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Nov 21, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Crude trader’s focus back on fundamentals, oversupply

After a week of increased uncertainty following the anticorruption crackdown in Saudi Arabia, the focus is re-shifting toward fundamentals again. A Tuesday sell-off was triggered by the IEA monthly report where the agency reduced its’ global demand forecast by around 100k bpd in contrary to the last OPEC Monthly report from a day earlier. The bears got some additional support in the evening from the increased oil inventories reported by API. The next day the official government data confirmed the oil stock accumulation but didn’t cause additional selling as the main damage was done on Tuesday.

Although the crude jumped up 2.6% on the last trading day of the week, further rally will need some geopolitical support as the fundamentals seems to be improving. The US oil production hit new multi month record at 9.65 mil bpd and it seems the crude output is on its way to reach 10 mil bpd in a few months time. Additional pressure came from Russia with its wavering support for the extension of the OPEC production curb deal. The cartel has a schedule meeting on 30th November where the member states should decide whether to extend the agreement beyond March 2018.

The next important oil related reports are:

Tuesday – EIA Monthly Energy Review and API weekly oil stocks and refinery operations

Wednesday – EIA weekly petroleum status report

For the technical view please check the weekly WTI chart:

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. 

Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom, Blog: landoftrading.blogspot.com

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Nov 20, 2017 - Market Update (No Jamaica in Germany, Leadership in EU on pause, Risk taking at record levels, Mugabe still in but already out, Norwegians not counting on oil/gas, EURUSD to keep hawkish tone above 1.1675-1700 zone, Gold to test medium-term resistance at 1306)

Short recap

Asia in red

Europe opening lower

No Jamaica coalition in Germany – Merkel can still form a minority government

No history of minority government or new election creating more uncertainty

Merkel to meet president, German leadership in EU on pause

What worked in difficult 2000s and 2010s years not working anymore

Pragmatism, conservativism and stability to be replaced

Zimbabwe’s Mugabe not willing to resign yesterday

But a new deal is on the table with full immunity

Goldman Sachs sees Fed hiking 4 times in 2018

Lloyd Blankefein was heard that many would like to have confirming Brexit vote

Excessive risk taking at record level

‘Irrational Exuberance’ May Rule the Roost in Stock Markets  link

BAML fund-manager survey shows risk taking at all-time high

Investors see stocks as overvalued but bullish on growth

Equities

Volkswagen taking it seriously and investing EUR 23 bln in development

Apple not on time with smart speaker HomePod for Christmas

Tesla short of cash soon to ask for new money

To keep financing trucks, roadster and acceleration of production

Norway sovereign wealth fund to remove oil and gas companies

From its benchmark and cut their holdings

S&P 500

Resistance 2581 (10 DMA), 2589, 2597-2600

Support 2554 (23.6% Fibo), 2549, 2544

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.33%

10-yr Bund yield at 0.36%

EURUSD

Support area 1.1675-1700, 1.1710 (200 HMA),1.1714 (high from Aug 2015), 1.1747 (100 DMA)

Resistance 1.1759 (38.2% Fibo), 1.1771 (50 DMA), 1.1778 (55 HMA), 1.1810 (38.2% Fibo of 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1822 (50.0% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Gold

US tax reform, Germany and USD in play

Top range 1306 level needs to be taken off decisively

In order to break medium-term resistance

Resistance 1299 (38.2% Fibo), 1306

Support 1287 (50 DMA), 1281 (50.0% Fibo), 1280 (100 DMA)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB’s Nowotny (1145 GMT)

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger (1215 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1400 GMT)

ECB’s Constancio (1415 GMT)

ECB’s Draghi (1600 GMT)

EU Council meeting

CEE bankers conference

Wed

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

Fri

US bond trading close, stocks open halfday

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Nov 14, 2017 – Weekly Commodity: Did the Crude bulls run too far?

After the spectacular rally since September crude bulls are taking a brake recently. The main reasons of the rally were partially old news about the extension of OPEC and Non-OPEC production cut beyond March 2018. The geopolitical tension on the Middle East added further support to the bulls and the spread between the Brent and WTI widened to over 7$. Another strong support that helped the market rally were news about dropping inventories. However some analysts started to question this drop, especially the one reported from the Middle East.

Now with elevated speculative positioning where net longs are close to records seems that traders lost confidence a little. We have ahead this weekly oil reports and Monthly oil report from IEA and later the month from EIA which will be closely watched. However be aware of the fact that geopolitical tension could fuel a rally far beyond the levels that fundamentals would justify.

Technically WTI seems to have completed the 5th wave (or could be close to the end) and the 38.2% of Fibonacci level seems to be a good reason for a correction. I expect the prices to retrace somewhat toward the $52.50 support and then we will see if prices rally one more time ahead of a deeper correction.

Good Luck and remember to watch your risk and be consistent

Mr. Tech Man

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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