Nov 22, 2017 - Market Update (US rate curve flattening on corporate and pension fund investors interest, Hong Kong above 30 000, US not comfortable with free and open internet, USDJPY condemned to 112.00-50 range ahead of US/JP holidays, Enel going digital, RBC too big to fail since yesterday, If early elections in Germany not before end of Q1 2018)

Short recap

Asian in green

Europe opening higher

If new elections in Germany, not before end of Q1 2018

Thus prolonging the uncertainty but EUR is indifferent, as it was the case with some other coalition talks in EU

US to take down the free and open internet

Giving the service providers possibility to choose what content the users will access

Lacklustre trading ahead of US and JP holidays

Equities

Hong Kong index breaching 30 000 on continuation of risk and strong earnings

Enel increasing spending on digital networks to ready for end user intelligent solutions

RBC on a global list of too big to fail, thus will need to hold extra capital (+1%)

Rio Tinto, Wealth Minerals and GSR Capital to bid for SQM that is a lithium producer

EU digital tax still an issue for some EU states

Bonds

10-yr Trys yield at 2.36%

US yield curve keeps flattening what is a very interesting development we have pointed to recently

Very likely it is related to US tax reform implications as pension funds load the bonds due to:

Corporates increasing the funding of pension schemes before next year further rise in US rates

And pension fund investors also making contributions as they may lose some tax exemptions next year with new reform in place

10-yr Bund yield at 0.34%

Situation in Turkey not helping sovereign and bank bonds

As investors prefer safer assets

EURUSD

German politics a focus

Support around 1.1710, 1.1734 (10 DMA)

Resistance range 1.1755/60/65 where are 55 & 100 DMA, 38.2% Fibo and yesterday’s high

USDJPY

Lower US yields and yield flattening pushing JPY higher

Decent offers seen above 112.50 with expiring options

112.44 (100 HMA) 112.47 (55 DMA)

Bids sitting at 112.00 with USD 1.4 bln option expiring with strike at this level

Support also from 100 & 200 DMA (around 111.70 level) and 111.90 (38.2% Fibo)

Source: Saxo Bank

Data/events

ECB Governing Council (no interest rate announcement)

FOMC Minutes

Thu

ECB Minutes

US Thanksgiving – markets closed

JP Labour Thanksgiving day

Fri

US bond trading closed, stocks open half day

Nov 28 – Powell before Senate Banking Committee

Nov 30 – OPEC meeting

Dec 13 – FOMC

Dec 14 – ECB

Dec 14-15 – EU Summit talking Brexit

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Apr 7, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asia lower, safe heaven flows to bonds as US strikes can rise the confrontation risk with Russia and Iran

Russia calling for UN Security Council meeting, US informed RU about strikes in advance

Don’t want to sound cynic but it was a very good move from Trump’s team and Trump will definitely benefit

In other words diverting the attention from economic agenda to something else (for the time being)

China has no comments so far

Trump-Xi socialized a bit yesterday, no working talks yet

Geopolitical events difficult to trade but they usually mean revert as the market finds another theme

Sitting on crucial levels:

USDJPY at 110.00

US Trys yield close to 2.30% support

Gold above 200 DMA at 1256 and above recent high

S&P 500 to decide soon which to go

Oil was 2% up

10-yr Trys yield at 2.32% - after falling as low as 2.29% quickly recovered

10-yr Bunds yield at 0.25% - Draghi confirmed there is no need to change monetary policy

AUD down on risk off and fall in iron ore

EURUSD to test support at 1.0623 (100 DMA)

JP econ adviser saying JPY not at extremely strong levels

EURCZK cap removed

FX foreign reserves come close to USD 115 bln with a huge jump in 2017

No surprise that CNB acted that quickly right after official hint from last week

Overall it was an expected move, no huge reaction, handled it way much better then SNB

Looking at a steady move lower but still a short covering can take place as some speculators were betting on a sudden move

EURCZK at higher levels would mean a better entry point for CNB foreign reserves offloading

Stocks very muted reaction to Syria strikes

Defence stocks likely to benefit today

Step by step move over to high quality and low volatility stocks may be warranted

Unilever on the way to prove its shareholders both financially and via restructuring that it can run biz on its own

Adidas putting the 3D technology to real life to produce more customized products

Linde-Praxair merger – Linde board having headaches

Twitter co-founder sold some minority shares

JPMorgan, GS and RBC enjoying increase in M&A activity in Canada

Data

US NFPs

Headline 180k exp vs 235k prior

Unemployment rate 4.7% exp vs 4.7% prior

Average earnings +0.2% exp vs +0.2% prior

Few comments apart from official numbers above:

A bit mixed views as employment was strong in ISM Manufacturing

While dropped substantially in ISM Non-manufacturing

ADP strong at 263k

Jobless claims steady

Our expectations are closer to 200-220k

Market putting more emphasis on the dynamic of hourly earnings grow because of inflation pressures

That in turn may benefit USD

With this respect would need to see earnings growth at a higher pace than +0.2% m/m or +2.8% y/y

Weather may play a role

Unlikely that a bad surprise would effect Fed rate hikes

Wouldn’t be surprised if stock markets finally take a note of hiking…

Trump meeting Chinese president (2^nd day)

NATO foreign ministers meeting (2^nd day)

Fed’s Dudley speaking

Short week next week ahead of Easter holidays

Apr 23 – French presidential elections

Apr 29 – EU Summit to sign off the Brexit negotiations guidelines – until then we won’t have clearer EU position on Brexit

May 7 – French presidential elections 2^nd round

Should you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

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Feb 26, 2017 - Q4 Earnings - Week 7

Q4 Earnings – Week 2017-02-26

As we are moving closer to the end of earnings season we have got more international and medium to small companies reporting. Last week Royal Bank of Canada hit the CAD 3 bln earnings mark, actually for the first time. The investors were pleased by 24% rise in earnings, 5% hike in dividends. The good news was that all areas performed well.

Target – may not be the top performer this week as holiday season was hit by discounts and competition

Mylan – market is interested to see how the company is effected by ongoing price investigation and facing competition in generics

Salesforce.com – expecting better results on the back of overwhelming demand for sales and marketing software

Valeant Pharmaceuticals – nothing new here, the company is still struggling under enormous debt burden, likely the sales of non-core assets may not be sufficient

VTB Bank and Sberbank – the Trump stance on Russia is changing, Western sanctions being in place, domestic economic still not out of the woods but having better prospects for higher oil price, all of that has definitely a direct impact on financial sector in Russia. Let’s see how the banks do in this environment.

Name	Exchange	Date	Estimated EPS	Estimated Revenue
CST Brands	US	Mon	0.36	2,460
Perrigo	US	Mon	1.62	1,340
Priceline.com	US	Mon	13.01	2,330
VimpelCom	RU	Mon	0.04	2,210
BMO	CA	Tue	1.88	…
Bank of Nova Scotia	CA	Tue	1.57	…
Target	US	Tue	1.50	…
Valeant Pharmaceuticals	CA	Tue	1.83	2,330
MAN	GE	Wed	…	…
BestBuy	US	Wed	1.67	…
ENI	IT	Wed	…	…
Evraz	RU	Wed	…	3,700
Lowe's	US	Wed	0.79	…
Luxottica	IT	Wed	…	…
Mylan	US	Wed	1.42	3,220
National Bank of Canada	CA	Wed	1.26	…
Office Depot	US	Wed	0.10	2,730
VTB Bank	RU	Wed	…	…
Anheuser Busch Inbev	BE	Thu	0.83	13,690
Canadian Natural Resources	CA	Thu	0.10	3,140
Costco	US	Thu	1.36	…
Deutsche Telekom	GE	Thu	…	…
Embraer	BR	Thu	0.73	1,870
LafargeHolcim	CH	Thu	…	…
Sberbank	RU	Thu	…	…
TD Bank	CA	Thu	1.27	…
Parmalat	IT	Fri	…	…

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmail.com

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Feb 24, 2017 - Market Update

Short recap

Asian shares lower, hit by slide in material shares on falling copper, iron ore and other commodities

EZ risks still present, Japanese investors own 13% of French bonds

If the Le Pen headlines continue we may see more EURJPY downside

Trichet on global debt and DM crisis coming in 10-15 years  video (talking about debt from 13^th minute)

Pace of growth of DM debt slowed down but EM accelerating, especially China

Trump – Obamacare & tax reform this year (tax laws in Aug), infrastructure plan in 2018

Actually, he is getting a strong competition as he is not the only Champion in the room but China has become the Grand Champion…

Doesn’t really matter that in FX manipulation in this case

New top trading partner for Germany is China as US slipped to third day after France

US oil production rising, replacing OPEC cut deliveries in Asia

Bunds supported by reinvestments, US Trys up on lower expectations of March hike

Peugeot-Opel – Peugeot to implement its own small car platform across Opel models

Royal Bank of Canada expected to report better results supported by division of capital markets

Its US activities will be in focus due to lighter regulation

Advent International improving the offer for Stada (EUR 3.6 bln)

UniCredit EUR 13 bln shares issue almost fully subscribed

NY Fed primary dealers expecting Fed to move in May or eventually later

March hike at 36%

May or later at 78%

We saw a bit of hesitation in US stocks yesterday what may result in a correction before Mar 15 FOMC

If we it does it can be a good signal that market is ready for rate hike

EURUSD – just touching support at 1.0500 or is there anything else?

Critical 1.0515 (year open) and than 1.0460

If we manage to close below then we are ready for more downsize even lower towards parity

Range 1.0500/20 is the battleground

Gold – 1250 (61.8%) and 1260 (200 DMA)

Data

US: Consumer Sentiment – to decline a bit

US: New Home Sales – expecting a new impulse

Good luck Champs!

Mr Hawk

DISCLAIMER: This material was created for informational purposes only and represents the Land of Trading team’s view of the past and current economic and capital market environment. It is not an investment advice and should not be viewed that way at all, and the creators of this material cannot be held liable for any potential losses resulting from trading, where despite this disclaimer someone would consider this material as an investment advice. All rights reserved ©2016. Contact: landoftradingATgmailDOTcom

Read More